Eurodollar University

In the midst of other major warnings, here comes another substantial one. Copper has moved way past its supply squeezed record high from just two months ago and is now crashing. At the same time, gold is reaching new heights. The copper to gold ratio therefore just dropped to its lowest since...November 2020. Taking a deeper look at what all this means. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S LIVESTREAM NEXT TUESDAY, 7/23 btw 6 - 8 pm ETEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S ANNIVERSARY SALE:https://www.eurodollar.universityBloomberg China’s Unusually Large Copper Stockpiles Fuel Demand Concernshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-05/china-s-unusually-large-copper-stockpiles-fuel-demand-concernsBloomberg Gold Slips From Record High as Traders Ponder Bet on Fed Pivothttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-17/gold-holds-at-record-high-as-rate-cut-bets-fuel-demand-rushhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Swaps are of paramount importance to the financial world, priced by the very monetary system itself. As a consequence, swap market indications are even more critical than the yield curve. But what does it all mean, and how can you decipher what appear its confusing signals? A few minutes on some manageable basics and you're ready to read the market's big move.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S LIVESTREAM NEXT TUESDAY, 7/23 btw 6 - 8 pm ETEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S ANNIVERSARY SALE:https://www.eurodollar.universityhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Another part of the yield curve un-inverted, this time the short to long segment. Demonstrating the perpetual inability to make sense of it, mainstream sources are suggesting some "Trump trade" is behind this. No. Unequivocally no. The classic bull case is building and this is merely the latest nascent signal. It isn't complete yet, but incoming data including today's negative retail sales continues to suggest the same case.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S LIVESTREAM NEXT TUESDAY, 7/23 btw 6 - 8 pm ETEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S ANNIVERSARY SALE:https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUNYT 30-year U.S. bond is back in big wayhttps://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/09/business/worldbusiness/30year-us-bond-is-back-in-big-way.html

This podcast discusses China's economy collapse with low loan growth, missed GDP targets, and retail sales decline. It also covers Xi Jinping's power rise and ineffective stimulus efforts, revealing struggles in banking and real estate sectors.

Financial expert Steve Van Metre discusses the Japanese government's futile attempts to prop up the yen, highlighting the broader truth about monetary systems globally. Topics include central bank interventions, currency dynamics, impact of weakening Asian economies, and the consequences of a strengthening dollar on the US economy.

There was an unnoticed yet absolutely critical detail in the June CPI report that pointed to a lot more than just benign disinflation, a development that has only rarely been observed in decades of history. More disturbing still, the context behind this one is consistent with those few past instances including a few new pieces of subsequent information. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFOMC Transcript April 2010https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20100428meeting.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The June consumer price estimates at first seemed like good news. Two months in a row at low and now negative changes. But these past two months have shown a little more weakness than most had bargained for, instead so many of the details consistent with recession indications spilling out from all over the economy. No wonder bond yields dropped sharply, though, alarmingly, swap spreads got there well before today. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBLS June 2024 CPIhttps://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdfBloomberg Stocks See Big Rotation as Yields Sink on Fed Bets: Markets Wraphttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-10/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updatesEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY ANNIVERSARY SALE PAGEhttps://www.eurodollar.university/anniversary-salehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Chinese authorities are becoming increasingly desperate over their inability to stabilize any of the economy, banking system, or markets. CNY keeps going down, as does the economy. Banks in China aren't lending while dozens are now 'disappearing.' Safety/liquidity of government bonds makes perfect sense. Not to the PBOC which is going to be shorting it by hundreds of billions and this is why.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY ANNIVERSARY SALE PAGEhttps://www.eurodollar.university/anniversary-saleBloomberg Closer Yen, Yuan Correlation Is Danger Sign for Asian Currencieshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-10/closer-yen-yuan-correlation-is-danger-sign-for-asian-currencies?srnd=economics-v2X Video showing Jiangxi Bank 'protest'https://twitter.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1810456112652779538The Economist Why Chinese banks are now vanishinghttps://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/07/04/why-chinese-banks-are-now-vanishingBloomberg China Merges Hundreds of Rural Banks as Financial Risks Mounthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-31/china-merges-hundreds-of-rural-banks-as-financial-risks-mountBloomberg China's PBOC Readies Multibillion-Yuan Pool of Bonds to Sell by Tapping Major Bankshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-05/pboc-readies-hundreds-of-billions-of-yuan-bond-sale-capacityCNN Chinese government bonds are on fire. That’s ringing alarm bells in Beijinghttps://www.cnn.com/2024/07/03/business/china-bond-market-bank-crisis-svb-intl-hnk/index.htmlChina NBS June 2024 CPIhttps://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202407/t20240710_1955508.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

From 'strong and resilient' to 'uh oh' in a heartbeat. The unemployment rate has intruded itself on the soft landing narrative, forcing a near-total rethink of the situation all across the mainstream. Some major bank strategists are now calling for aggressive rate cuts from the Fed at the same time the yield curve is beginning to flash bull. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY ANNIVERSARY SALE PAGEhttps://www.eurodollar.university/anniversary-saleFed Chair Powell testimony (courtesy CBS News)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Og8W_VK1gMMFed Chair Powell prepared remarks before Congresshttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/powell20240709a.htmCNBC The Fed is ‘playing with fire’ by not cutting rates, says creator of ‘Sahm Rule’ recession indicatorhttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/18/economist-sahm-who-devised-recession-rule-says-the-fed-is-playing-with-fire-.htmlFortune The Fed could slash rates by 200 points over 8 straight meetings as the economy heads for a sharper downtrend, Citi sayshttps://fortune.com/2024/07/07/fed-rate-cuts-outlook-200-points-economy-sharper-slowdown-citi/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Political turmoil in Europe is very easy to understand. The European economy is supposed to be recovering from its unofficial recession, and yet the most recent data shows instead alarming (re)acceleration to the downside in a number of places. Realizing this means the path to clawing back some of the supply shock's price increases is disappearing, voters are simply voting accordingly. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisPew Research Center Economic ratings across 34 countries are more negative than positivehttps://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/06/07/economic-ratings-across-34-countries-are-more-negative-than-positive/World Bank Global trade has nearly flatlined. Populism is taking a toll on growthhttps://blogs.worldbank.org/en/voices/global-trade-has-nearly-flatlined-populism-taking-toll-growthUN Trade and Development  Global economic growth set to slow to 2.6% in 2024, just above recession thresholdhttps://unctad.org/news/global-economic-growth-set-slow-26-2024-just-above-recession-thresholdhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU