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Another recession warning and this one is related to brewing problems with unemployment. The September payroll report has put mainstream focus back on a soft- or no-landing scenario, but we've been there before not long ago. Meanwhile, apart from the unreliable payroll figure everything else continues to point to bigger trouble, including Americans who have stopped using their credit cards. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis***EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY FALL SALE***Subscriptions and price information:https://www.eurodollar.universityABC News Blockbuster jobs report flexes economic strength, defying Americans' lukewarm attitudeshttps://abcnews.go.com/Business/blockbuster-jobs-report-flexes-economic-strength-defying-americans/story?id=108887637Challenger, Gray & Christmas Job Cuts Flat in September 2024 from August; YTD Surpasses 2023https://www.challengergray.com/blog/job-cuts-flat-in-september-2024-from-august-ytd-surpasses-2023/Robert Shimer Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemploymenthttps://home.uchicago.edu/~shimer/wp/reassess.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

US economic weakness continues to show up outside the country as much as inside (last payroll estimate notwithstanding). Japan's government leading indicator just tanked, lowest value since 2020 and pointing to growing trouble in Japan. Same from Mexico and even according to one by JP Morgan. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Ueda Hints at Dovishness After New Prime Minister Urges Cautionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/ueda-hints-at-dovishness-after-new-prime-minister-urges-cautionS&P Global Mexico Manufacturing PMIhttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/5cbff538ec56483b8e9a77ce7c1c252eJP Morgan Global Compositehttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/80a2d5d7d8554f7f909ba9ae30fd4016***EDU FALL SALE***Subscriptions and memberships:https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

September's payroll estimate soared WAY above expectations. Is it a Fed miracle? This isn't the first time this has happened; in fact, each of the last two times the FOMC began cutting rates met eerily similar results. Steve and I talk about what those were and why, also why that means everything right now. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre***EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY FALL SALE***Best subscription prices on the Deep Dive Analysis, Daily Briefing, and EDU membership. https://www.eurodollar.universitySeptember 2024 Payroll Reporthttps://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htmTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The bond rally is now one year old and it finally got to the point where central banks - including the Fed - are getting out of the way. Now that the market got what it "wants", there's no stopping it, right? Not quite. Nothing ever goes in a straight line, starting with policy pivots. The market will always surprise you. ***EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY FALL SALE***https://www.eurodollar.universityEurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

There are several ways to know that the second phase for the global recession has started. While there is never a clear demarcation between any stages or just recession, for that matter, there are telltale signs and we are getting them bigtime. Summer keeps showing up as full of warnings, including one that explains everything from the economy to central bankers' increasingly panicking reaction to it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg ECB Can’t Ignore Headwinds to Economic Growth, Schnabel Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/ecb-can-t-ignore-headwinds-to-economic-growth-schnabel-saysBloomberg ECB Momentum for an October Rate Cut Is Looking Unstoppablehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/ecb-momentum-for-an-october-rate-cut-is-looking-unstoppableBloomberg ECB Should Proceed Cautiously With Rate Cuts, Schnabel Warnshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-30/ecb-should-proceed-cautiously-with-rate-cuts-schnabel-warnsNikkei Transcript: ECB board member Isabel Schnabel speaks with Nikkeihttps://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/Transcript-ECB-board-member-Isabel-Schnabel-speaks-with-NikkeiFT Lower borrowing costs risk ‘flare-up’ of inflation, warns ECB policymakerhttps://www.ft.com/content/bdf3bb86-8a80-4bd5-b562-0c3c47f85f50https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Bank of Japan's very recent change of heart has apparently been strong enough to do the same for incoming Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Sounding aggressively hawkish where it came to interest rates just last week after his surprise ascent, suddenly he's completely changed his tune. Why? The answer can be found in another record low for a highly critical US$ market. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Ueda Keeps Rate Hikes in Play, Talks Down BOJ’s Part in Meltdownhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-23/boj-s-ueda-still-plans-to-hike-rates-if-economy-meets-outlookBloomberg Ueda Reiterates That BOJ Will Lift Rates If Outlook Realizedhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-03/boj-ueda-reiterates-stance-of-lifting-rates-if-outlook-realizedThe New York Times Stocks in Japan Tumble After Party’s Election of New Prime Ministerhttps://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/29/business/japan-stocks-nikkei-shigeru-ishiba.htmlCNBC Here’s why Japan’s stocks are plunging after Shigeru Ishiba’s winhttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/30/heres-why-japans-stocks-are-plunging-after-shigeru-ishibas-win.htmlBNN Bloomberg Ishiba Ally Sends Signal to Warn BOJ Against Rate Hike Too Soonhttps://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/international/2024/10/02/japans-ishiba-isnt-necessarily-pro-boj-hike-new-minister-says/Bloomberg Japan’s Ishiba Rules Out BOJ Interest Rate Hikes For Nowhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/boj-s-ueda-briefs-new-pm-ishiba-on-market-developmentsBloomberg Ueda Hints at Dovishness After New Prime Minister Urges Cautionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/ueda-hints-at-dovishness-after-new-prime-minister-urges-cautionhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Jay Powell again reiterated that he believes the economy is "on solid footing." The most recent data on the labor market shows he's either wrong or lying. There is no equivocating these latest estimates in which hiring has collapsed. As if that wasn't enough, it was backed up by other sources. All of it pointing to summertime being the time for recession. It's all about hiring, and that has all but disappeared. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Powell Says Fed Not in a Hurry, Will Lower Rates ‘Over Time’https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-30/powell-says-fed-will-move-over-time-to-more-neutral-stanceBloomberg Fed’s Goolsbee Sees ‘Many More’ Rate Cuts Over the Next Yearhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-23/fed-s-goolsbee-sees-many-more-rate-cuts-over-the-next-yearCNN A sign of strength in the labor market: Job openings increased in Augusthttps://www.cnn.com/2024/10/01/economy/us-jolts-job-openings-layoffs-august/index.htmlISM September 2024 Manufacturing ISM Report On Businesshttps://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/september/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Car stocks got clobbered as the global auto industry is heading for a major fall. There was a flood of announcements from carmakers all over the world this weekend as carmakers are facing very difficult choices. The fallout from the growing reverse will be profound given how important a rising auto market had been up to now. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisStellantis Updates 2024 Financial Guidancehttps://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/09/30/2954870/0/en/Stellantis-Updates-2024-Financial-Guidance.htmlBloomberg Stellantis Cuts Forecasts in Further Blow to Besieged Carmakershttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-30/stellantis-cuts-2024-forecast-on-costs-for-us-global-slowdownDow Jones Aston Martin shares fall 25% after warning blamed on supply disruptions, Chinahttps://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2024093033/aston-martin-shares-fall-25-after-warning-blamed-on-supply-disruptions-chinaVolkswagen AG updates its forecast for the 2024 financial yearhttps://www.volkswagen-group.com/en/ad-hoc/volkswagen-ag-updates-its-forecast-for-the-2024-financial-year-18698The Guardian Volkswagen has ‘a year, maybe two to turn around’, financial chief warnshttps://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/sep/04/volkswagen-has-a-year-maybe-two-to-turn-around-financial-chief-warnsBloomberg VW’s Second Profit Warning Exposes a Carmaker in Declinehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-30/volkswagen-s-second-profit-warning-exposes-a-carmaker-in-declinehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Now that everyone is coming to grips with economic weakness, particularly where it comes to employment conditions, understanding the high potential for a lot more or worse, people are trying to figure out where it is coming from therefore what might be done to turn it all around. Did the Fed break the economy? Are employers worried about the next President? Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Americans continue to say they're alarmed about job prospects. That's what consumer confidence is truly about, not consumer spending. Workers see and understand labor market shifts before they show up in the major data sources. The latest income data show there is every reason to believe what consumers are seeing. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisConference Board September 2024https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/press/CCI-Sep-2024FRBNY Consumer Confidence: A Useful Indicator of . . . the Labor Market?https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2013/09/consumer-confidence-a-useful-indicator-of-the-labor-market/FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectationshttps://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/earnuncert-1https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU