Eurodollar University

Explore the unsettling adjustments in global monetary policy as central banks face mounting economic challenges. Recent rate cuts reflect deeper issues, not just optimism. Discover how a strong Swiss franc impacts the watch industry and the grim realities of consumer spending. Weak retail sales and rising unemployment paint a worrying picture in countries like Australia and the U.S. Central banks seem caught in a race to the bottom, with their true responses revealing a cautious approach to looming economic crises.

I am doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare. You can sign up here:  https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6The only question is how long the Fed can hold out, not if. With other central banks racing toward the bottom already, the fact those around the FOMC are also speaking with more forceful concerns - even downgrading - their expectations has the Fed effectively trapped, only a step maybe two away from re-entering that same race. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg US Growth Downgrades Appear on Wall Street Amid Policy Turmoilhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-03-10/us-recession-growth-downgrades-appear-on-wall-street-amid-policy-turmoilAtlanta Fed GDPNow https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowAtlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 adjustmentshttps://www.linkedin.com/pulse/gdp-forecasters-some-gold-doesnt-glitter-atlantafed-fxb2e/?trackingId=IKtl2qJkTya%2FgvCxax%2FXEQ%3D%3DBloomberg Fed Needs to Raise Threat of ‘Bad News’ Rate Cuts, El-Erian Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-19/el-erian-says-fed-needs-to-raise-threat-of-bad-news-rate-cutshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/I am also doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare, you can sign up here:  https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6After credit spreads had narrowed to near historic lows last month, they've made a major move off them. In fact, the rise in spreads has already equaled last summer. But this year's credit selloff has begun to spread to other segments of the marketplace, including sharp price changes in risky assets like leveraged loans and even private equity. And there is a small hint of yen.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I am doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare. You can sign up here:  https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6The big drop in retail sales in January turns out to have been even bigger - much more. And then February consumer spending failed to rebound from it, coming in way below expectations, too. Add retail sales to the growing list on the side of "recession scare." Plus, the bad start to 2025 confirms a whole lot more on that side. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Disappointing Retail Sales Add to Concerns About US Outlookhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-17/us-retail-sales-rise-by-less-than-forecast-after-january-dropNFR CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor Shows February Sales Were Down Monthly Amid Tariff Concernshttps://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/cnbc-nrf-retail-monitor-shows-february-sales-were-down-monthly-amid-tariff-concernsBloomberg The US Economic Outlook Is Becoming More Uncertainhttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-03-17/the-us-economic-outlook-is-becoming-more-uncertainBloomberg Gen Z’s Job Recession Needs Urgent Attentionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-03-17/gen-z-job-recession-needs-urgent-attentionhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I am doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare. You can sign up here:  https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6The return of zero interest rates. Not in some distant future, right now. A major central bank will be debating the potential return of ZIRP this week. And it is far from alone; policy rates aren't just falling all over the world, they're already a lot closer to the historical lows everyone said we'd never see again. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I am doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare. You can sign up here:  https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6Foreign companies are fleeing China in droves as the government there is now smack in the middle of an epic borrowing spree. Those two things are related, both stemming from the same major deficiency: banks. Not central banks; actual banks. And China's institutions continue to explore new depths. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Chinese Stocks Surge as Beijing Plans Briefing on Consumptionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-14/consumer-stocks-drive-china-benchmark-to-highest-level-this-yearBloomberg China Has Record Foreign Investment Outflow as $168 Billion Exithttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-14/china-has-record-foreign-investment-outflow-as-168-billion-exithttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/I am also doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare, you can sign up here:  https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6The global "race to the bottom" for interest rates is already well underway, more than most people might think. They've been led to believe it's just a few rate cuts here or there, when the reality is very different. The Bank of Canada is a perfect example, a central bank that has already lowered its rates by a ton. Markets and fundamentals all say there's more coming; the rate race is far from over. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I am doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare. You can sign up here:  https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6Delta airlines in January said business was booming and that the company had confidence there was no end in sight Yesterday, the CEO called the first quarter a "parade of horribles" as economic "uncertainty" spoiled everything. Delta was not alone and not just in terms of airlines. There isn't economic uncertainty, the opposite is taking hold including what was in the February CPI. Not only did it confirm the latest from the carriers, there was a whole lot more in it beside. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisDallas Morning News Walmart CEO warns food prices are causing ‘frustration and pain’https://www.dallasnews.com/business/retail/2025/03/03/walmart-ceo-warns-food-prices-are-causing-frustration-and-pain/Delta Airlines 8-khttps://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000027904/11d5a8ff-be02-448c-84f4-463a77b3365f.pdfBloomberg Delta Air Surges After Bet on More Premium Seats Pays Offhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-10/delta-tops-profit-estimates-on-overseas-business-travel-reboundIBD Delta, American Dive On Slashed Outlooks; But Two Airlines Rallyhttps://www.investors.com/news/delta-air-lines-cuts-q1-2025-guidance-demand-delta-stock-dal/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/I am also doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare, you can sign up here:  https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6While the world is lost in the "recession scare", China comes along and adds its considerable deflationary weight to it by reporting more outright price deflation. Both consumer and producer. Together with a sharp drop in imports, this global loss of macro momentum is certainly not lost on China. That can only mean one thing: more government debt. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNN China’s deflation problems get worsehttps://www.cnn.com/2025/03/10/economy/china-cpi-deflation-problems-intl-hnk/index.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I am doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare, you can sign up here:  https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6Stocks plunged, bond yields dropped, the R-word is now the common phrase in the media...Jay Powell says everything is just fine and dandy. Even the President is now cautioning the economy might be going through a "transition" and the markets more and more can't get away from it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Bond Market’s Trump Trade Is Looking Like a Recession Playhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-09/the-bond-market-s-trump-trade-is-looking-like-a-recession-tradeBloomberg Treasuries Gain as Trump Transition Talk Fuels Recession Angsthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-10/us-credit-risk-rises-as-tariffs-job-cuts-stoke-recession-fearsJay Powell in Chicagohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6pZzfv8AQENBC Dow falls nearly 900 points and Nasdaq dives 4% as stock selloff gathers steamhttps://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/stocks-tank-trump-declines-dismiss-recession-risk-rcna195653https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU