Eurodollar University

Steve Van Metre, macro/market commentator who tracks labor and credit, joins to unpack recent double negative payrolls. He contrasts weak payrolls with upbeat surveys. He links falling retail traffic, productivity drops, and layoffs to cooling demand. He also warns how an oil shock and private credit stress could amplify the downturn.

A sudden, near-record surge in oil prices and calendar spreads sparked panic buying and supply shocks. Geopolitical risks around the Straits of Hormuz and Asian hoarding drove export curbs and delivery stress. Calendar spreads reveal frantic demand for immediate oil. The discussion links this oil shock to private credit strain and broader macro downside risks.

A deep dive into a major private credit fund blocking withdrawals and what that escalation means for markets. Discussion of dividend cuts and loans suddenly marked to zero. Exploration of fraud, misvaluation, and why investors are pulling capital. Survey of spillovers to other private credit players and links to oil, payrolls, and Treasury repricing.

Energy prices renewed their surge higher today. As it stands, WTI is now just shy of $80 per barrel, up 22% in a week. Wholesale gasoline is now above $2.60 per gallon, a 30% rise since last Thursday. These are the biggest short-term energy spikes we’ve seen since 2022. Because of that, we have to start seriously considering various potential paths for this burgeoning oil shock, up to and including a 1990 scenario where conflict in the Middle East sent energy prices skyrocketing and tipped a weak economy here and around the world into full-blown recession. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

A rare warning from Switzerland about currency intervention and what it means for global rates. A look at why Swiss inflation forecasts kept overshooting and then fell. How past oil shocks failed to boost Swiss CPI and instead pushed safe-haven currencies higher. The thread connecting franc strength, export pain, and the risk of policy easing if intervention fails.

Rising oil from Iran-driven shocks sparks energy market chaos and logistical insurance headaches. Wholesale gasoline surges provoke policy moves and historical parallels. Sharp gold and silver selling signals a scramble for dollars and liquidity. Private credit strains, fund redemptions, and leveraged loan declines hint at broader spillovers and escalation risks.

They dig into the sudden oil and gasoline spikes after the Iran conflict and why supply routes, not demand, are to blame. They highlight surprising moves in Treasury markets and what rising nominal yields imply about Fed policy. They discuss how energy shocks can be disinflationary over time and place the unrest in Iran within a larger story of deglobalization and rising political instability.

Steve Van Metre, economic and markets commentator who analyzes labor and credit cycles, joins to unpack recent tech layoffs. He discusses how pandemic overhiring and weak demand, not AI magic, drove cuts. They explore why AI is cited as a convenient scapegoat, the immaturity of AI deployments, and how credit and demand shape hiring decisions.

A deep dive into a recent UK private-credit collapse involving alleged double-pledged collateral and bankruptcy. Discussion of why repeated frauds expose weak Wall Street due diligence and threaten broader credit markets. Examination of shadow banking mechanics and how dealer banks are repositioning into Treasuries. Coverage of stress in BDCs, rising non-accruals, and potential spillovers into leveraged loans and high yield.

Discussion of growing worries about European private credit and insurers publicly distancing themselves. Examination of which banks have large exposures to non-bank lenders. Coverage of a surge in government bond buying as banks turn highly risk averse.