UBS On-Air: Market Moves

The market consequences of the US presidential debate rested on whether it changed probabilities around the election, and whether more substantial policy insights were offered. On the former, betting markets and the media suggest US Vice President Harris “won”—although debate victory does not always translate into electoral victory. On the latter, this was a debate of social media memes more than in-depth policy analysis.

Hear insights from David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities, CIO Americas, and Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income and Municipal Securities, CIO Americas. Host: Anthony Pastore

The only scheduled US presidential debate is after US markets have closed today. This is near enough to the election for investors to care. Investors’ focus is whether the debate influences election probabilities, and if the candidates offer new policy insights.

Join Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas at UBS, as he dives into the current state of the US economy and the intricacies of recent market performance. He discusses the mixed signals from August's payroll report and what it means for potential recessions. The conversation also highlights anticipated Fed rate cuts and their impact on investor sentiment, particularly in the tech and AI sectors. Finally, Jason shares valuable strategies for navigating investment risks in this uncertain economic climate.

The US has more people employed, working longer hours, for more pay. Last Friday’s employment report essentially summarized a soft economic landing. There was evidence of slower hiring (without firing) in the employment details, also consistent with a soft landing. While the Federal Reserve is late in cutting rates, the delay has not yet done much economic damage.

The latest employment report is in - Brian stops by to provide thoughts around the health of the US labor market, and what this latest data means for the potential timing and extent of Fed rate cuts in the weeks ahead. Plus, a look at what to expect in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Just one month ago, markets were panicked by the release of an unreliable labor market signal, distorted by seasonal peculiarities. Now, once again, it is time for the US employment report. The unreliability adds unpredictability to the numbers, but the expectation is for a lower unemployment rate as temporarily unemployed auto-sector workers return to work.

The Washington Post reports that US President Biden will prevent Japan’s Nippon Steel from acquiring US Steel, citing national security grounds. There will probably be a legal challenge to this, as national security might be hard to justify. Economic nationalism, however, is not just about trade in goods—it also often covers capital flows. Interestingly, economic nationalism goes both ways on capital flows: “how dare foreigners buy our assets?” for inflows; and “why are you not investing at home?” for outflows.

As Congress returns from summer recess, and the race for the White House heats up, Shane drops by to outline legislative priorities over the next few weeks, along with updates as to where polling for the White House and key Congressional races currently stands. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Equity markets had one of their funny turns yesterday. Some commentators, searching for scapegoats, want to blame the US ISM manufacturing sentiment poll. This seems unfair, as the ISM sentiment poll does not know what it is doing. Despite sentiment signaling five months of contraction, US manufacturing output is above where it was at the start of the year.