UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Ken Caplan, Global Co-Chief Investment Officer at Blackstone, and Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas at UBS, dive into the shifting landscape of investment strategies. They dissect the U.S. economy's resilience amidst challenges in consumer spending. The duo discusses promising sectors like logistics and rental housing, and the growing significance of data centers in AI investments. They also explore global opportunities, particularly the optimistic outlook for India's economy and the evolving dynamics across Europe and Asia.

The minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting are due, and should be fascinating. This meeting cut interest rates by 50bps, and had the first Fed governor dissenting in over two decades. Dissents may possibly be managed as part of the theater of the Fed—a single high profile dissent may mask wider disquiet at the scale of the rate cut. Certainly Fed Chair Powell’s dependence on dodgy data is looking a questionable strategy in the wake of recent (inevitable) data revisions.

October House View live conversation, featuring insights from Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, CIO Americas, and Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist, CIO Americas. Recorded on Oct 3.

New York Federal Reserve President Williams—a genuine economist, who should thus be listened to —signaled that the Fed is happy with the state of the US economy and that two 25bp rate cuts this year would be appropriate. This clearer guidance for the future is a big improvement on Fed Chair Powell’s inept dependence on dodgy data.

On this week’s Snapshot, Jason reflects on the latest round of jobs data and weighs what a better-than-expected growth outlook means for the Fed’s monetary policy course into 2025. We also spend time outlining CIO’s current allocation views and guidance. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The US employment report last week was wrong, because the data always is. However, the general direction of US employment signals an economy very far from “recession”. However, voters do not think about abstract concepts like GDP, have a distorted view of price levels, and believe that pay increases are due to them working harder. While the reality is people have a higher standard of living for the same amount of work, the perception is people are working harder to stand still.

As we close out the trading week, Brian and Paul weigh in on the latest jobs data, and what it means for the health of the US economy, along with the course ahead for monetary policy. Plus, we review CIO’s current allocation recommendations, and preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, and Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

It is US employment report Friday, the monthly celebration of dubious quality data that always thrills markets. Looking at the broad picture of the US labor market, the position is what it has been all year. Firms are slower to hire, but not keen to fire. This gives job security, and supports consumer spending patterns.

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard turns focus to the notable rally across Chinese markets in recent time, and speaks to how investors should interpret the move, along with shares investment lessons to consider.

The economic calendar is strewn with irrelevancies in the form of business sentiment opinion polls. For-profit polls crave the oxygen of publicity, but neither their profit motives nor the attendant media attention are guarantees that they reflect economic reality. Partisan bias, inaccurate answers to questions, and falling response rates are all challenges to the usefulness of surveys (of any kind).