UBS On-Air: Market Moves

As we officially move into the second-half of 2025, Jason assesses the factors that have driven recent market performance and investor sentiment, along with outlines CIO’s near-to-medium term market outlook. Plus, a review the portfolio positioning recommendations per the July UBS House View. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Over the past few days, Canada and the US stopped talking about trade, and started talking about trade again. Unusually, this was not a unilateral retreat by the US—Canada surrendered its digital services tax. Markets, quite rightly, are ignoring all of this. US President Trump cut taxes on US consumers of UK cars—from today the tax goes to 10%.

Join Jeff Hans, a Portfolio Manager at UBS Asset Management, as he dives into the recent performance of US equities. He discusses the tug-of-war between growth and value stocks, fueled by tech sector earnings. Jeff also shares intriguing insights from the latest investor conferences, highlighting stability in financials and the mixed outlook for consumer spending. With a cautious sense of optimism, he sheds light on the potential benefits of deregulation for mid-sized businesses, aiming to enhance market growth.

Hear from members of the UBS Chief Investment Office fixed income team as they provide a performance and positioning update across fixed income sub-sectors. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, along with Senior Fixed Income Strategists’ Barry McAlinden and Frank Sileo, from the UBS Chief Investment Office.

Shane drops by with the latest developments out of the Middle East, as we continue to monitor the US, Israel, Iran ceasefire, and assess last weekend’s US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. Plus, takeaways from this week’s NATO summit in the Netherlands, and a status update on the Reconciliation package being worked through Congress. We also touch on Congressional efforts to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Japan's recent disinflation trend shows a slowdown in core inflation to 1.8% year-on-year, driven by shifts in non-fresh food prices. The discussion highlights broader disinflationary patterns in Europe compared to inflationary pressures in the US due to consumer spending and trade policy changes. It delves into how consumer habits, influenced by political views, intersect with the potential for rising inflation from trade taxes. The skepticism around trade agreements also underlines its impact on economic policies in the US.

Burkhard Varnholt, a prominent voice in global markets, shares his insights on recent geopolitical shifts affecting market trends, particularly the influence of the Israel-Iran conflict and the resilience of Asian markets. He also discusses market valuations and the notable impact on oil prices. In a personal twist, Burkhard recounts his exhilarating cycling adventure through the Swiss Alps, drawing parallels between navigating mountain challenges and the innovative spirit driving economic growth in Switzerland.

Discussions revolve around President Trump's potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair and its implications for economic policy. The independence of the Fed could be challenged if a political appointee takes charge. Upcoming GDP data will be crucial for gauging the US economy's resilience. The impact of new trade taxes on consumer prices and inventory levels is also analyzed, raising concerns about market stability and stockpiling by businesses.

Dan Ivascyn, Group CIO for PIMCO, joins Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas at UBS, to navigate today's complex investment landscape. They discuss the implications of U.S. trade policy and shifting global dynamics, especially with China. The focus turns to inflation trends and strategic opportunities in fixed income markets. Ivascyn and Draho highlight the importance of liquidity management in light of rapid market changes and emphasize the need for adaptable investment strategies to thrive amidst uncertainty.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell's recent speech highlights a cautious approach to interest rates, emphasizing the impact of trade taxes and future inflation. The podcast dives into how geopolitical tensions, including the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, are affecting market dynamics. There’s also an intriguing discussion on how regional stability and global financial trends interact with local politics, touching on the rising polarization seen worldwide.