UBS On-Air: Market Moves

The US employment data yesterday raised several red flags. Existing data quality problems were compounded by the government shutdown. Looking at year-to-date trends, the total number of jobs in the US has risen, but at a slower pace than in the past four years. Manufacturing jobs have continued to fall. Average hourly earnings are not the same thing as wage or income growth, but the pace has slowed and may be overtaken by inflation in the coming months.

Kurt drops by for the final POTUS 47 conversation of 2025 as we discuss how affordability could influence policy efforts by both the White House and Congress in 2026. Plus, a look at expectations for monetary policy in the year ahead against the backdrop of current U.S. economic conditions coupled with anticipated leadership changes at the Fed. Featured is Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

It is US employment report Tuesday, with a bowdlerized October report (no household survey) and a rushed November report of dubious quality. Response rates to surveys are already horribly low, and whatever motivates someone to complete a survey most people ignore at a time when the government is shut down suggests that this data is likely to be subject to distortions.

We turn focus to Eurozone equities and highlight positioning considerations heading into 2026, along with risks and headwinds investors should be mindful of. Plus, thoughts on valuations and a look at CIO’s recent upgrade of Eurozone equities. Featured is Matt Gilman, Head, CIO Europe Equity Strategy, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

This week, the veil of ignorance shrouding the US economy is lifted a little—but only a little. US employment data (due Tuesday) was already low quality, and that is likely made worse by the effects of the government shutdown. Consumer price data (due Thursday) has been interpolating (or “guessing”) more and more, and has surveyed fewer prices in fewer locations this year.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. Recorded on 14 December 2025.

Tune in to hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams, as they share their views on markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

As we close out the series for 2025, Shane drops by for a Capitol Hill roundup as we cover developments surrounding Congressional votes on healthcare legislation, and the National Defense Authorization Act. Plus, some thoughts on renewed bipartisan efforts to ban Congressional stock trading. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs U.S. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Paul drops by for timely reflections on the December FOMC meeting and provides a health-check on the U.S. economy. We also cover upcoming data-points of interest through year-end, along with expectations for monetary policy in 2026. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve once again mimicked the style of the Bank of England. There were multiple dissents. Governor Miran presumably has a bleak outlook, with his attempts at aggressive rate cuts getting rejected again. Two Fed Presidents voted for unchanged rates, presumably reflecting concern about the rising US cost of living. The dissents suggest the next Fed Chair may have difficulty asserting control over policy, especially if they command less respect in the Fed and markets.