UBS On-Air: Market Moves

The Federal Reserve obviously left rates unchanged, but the tenor of the meeting seems to have been a little more hawkish. Resilient economic growth has reduced the urgency for a rate cut. A cut is still likely at some point this year, not to act as a stimulus but to ensure against downside risk (were labor market fears to start to weigh on the consumer).

Our first episode of the year features Marc Lipschultz, Co-CEO of Blue Owl Capital, and Jason Draho, UBS CIO Head of Asset Allocation Americas. Marc and Jason exchange thoughts on how AI infrastructure and data center investments are being financed, along with how investors should think about AI-bubble risk. Plus, thoughts on the macroeconomic environment, overall investment risks, and where opportunities exist across private markets and private credit. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A unanimous 92 out of 92 surveyed economists expect no change in US interest rates today. That many economists could never be wrong. An insurance rate cut may be necessary, to keep fear of unemployment low and allow US consumers to continue cutting savings rates to pay for tariffs. An insurance cut is not urgent, however.

The US dollar has remained weaker, but has not declined significantly further. The dollar is not likely to lose reserve status overnight. However, the decline of the US internationally and international investors’ questions over key issues like rule of law mean it is losing market share. Moreover, as trade stagnates (and may retreat), reserve status becomes less important. International investors are not likely to flounce out of dollar assets in a dramatic exit, but may be less interested in accumulating additional dollar holdings.

The 250 years of U.S. innovation publication series highlights examples of how transformational innovation has been an engine of U.S. economic growth since the nation’s founding. Today, we explore the history of the assembly line in the U.S. by referencing the next publication of the series: Made in USA - The assembly line. Featured are Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, and Sunny Mehra, U.S. Consumer Sector Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas at UBS Chief Investment Office, offers a compact market snapshot. He discusses recent market breadth and the rotation into cyclicals and small caps. He covers rate and curve risks alongside safe-haven demand for gold and silver. He previews the Fed meeting and outlines CIO’s current allocation stance.

A concise market briefing on what’s signal versus noise heading into the New York open. Contrasts U.S. policy speed and AI momentum with Europe’s regulatory stance. Discusses Japan’s fiscal shock and fixed income risks including private credit wobble. Lays out a tilt toward equities, broadening beyond narrow AI plays, and previews major earnings that could move markets.

Marianna Mamou, Head of Advice Beyond Investing at UBS Chief Investment Office and lead author of the UBS Women and Health Report, explores the gender health gap. She discusses underrepresentation in research, how health affects women’s careers and finances, the rise of femtech, and why closing the gap matters for economies and investors.

Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor at UBS who analyzes U.S. policy, weighs in on President Trump’s Davos remarks and why Greenland grabbed attention. He discusses U.S. negotiation priorities like bases, critical minerals, and Arctic shipping. Shane also reviews where Capitol Hill stands on appropriations and the main risks that could trigger a partial government shutdown.

Burkhard Varnholt, a market strategist and commentator, shares insights straight from the World Economic Forum in Davos. He discusses how Donald Trump's speech reassured markets and examines the turmoil in Japan's bond market, highlighting impending risks from a snap election. Varnholt also reflects on the potential global impacts of Japanese yields and the Bank of Japan's policy dilemmas. Additionally, he explores the EU's ambitious idea for a virtual '28th state' to enhance business competitiveness, highlighting a growing appetite for pro-business reforms.