ChinaPower

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Joseph Torigian joins us to discuss the historic and strategic dimensions of the China-Russia relationship. Dr. Torigian begins by describing the evolution of the China-Soviet relationship from its height as a formal alliance during the Cold War, to ideological disagreement, and then strategic competition. He explains how differences in perception led to mixed signals and Mao Zedong’s distrust of Soviet leadership and intentions. Dr. Torigian also discusses how China and Russia gradually repaired their relationship following the end of the Cold War. He argues that, through the anomalous relationship between President Xi and President Putin, both countries share a common set of perceptions and have aligned themselves strategically and flexibly. Lastly, Dr. Torigian explores how the relationship may evolve, the effects of remaining tensions, and the forces that are pushing both countries towards continued strategic alignment.  Dr. Joseph Torigian is an Assistant Professor at American University’s School of International Service. He studies the politics of authoritarian regimes with a specific focus on elite power struggles, civil-military relations, and grand strategy. Dr. Torigian’s philosophy as a scholar is to select topics based on the widest gap between the under-utilization of available documents and their theoretical and empirical importance, extract broader lessons, and use those lessons to help us to understand two nations of crucial geopolitical importance – Russia and China. His research agenda draws upon comparative politics, international relations, security studies, and history to ask big questions about the long-term political trajectories of these two states. In particular, Dr.Torigian is interested in how leaders in those countries create security against threats from within the elite, their own people, and other states.

In this episode of ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Elizabeth Economy joins us to discuss President Xi Jinping’s vision for China. Dr. Economy emphasizes the transformative aspect of Xi’s vision and his goal of not only changing the international system at the margins but also transforming China’s role on the global stage. She discusses the importance Xi places on sovereignty and power, explaining the influence this has on China’s actions in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the South China Sea. Furthermore, she argues that China’s behavior today and ambitions for the future are a direct result of Xi’s leadership. She points out that while his initiatives echo the ideas of past leaders, Xi has transformed them into policies. His willingness to embrace risk has largely allowed him to achieve his objectives, she says, but in some instances it has instead created international backlash and resistance. Lastly, Dr. Economy explores the integration of public and private sectors that needs to take place to manage competition with China. Dr. Elizabeth Economy is Senior Advisor to the Secretary of Commerce (for China). She is on leave from Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, where she is a senior fellow. She was previously the C.V. Starr Senior Fellow and Director, Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations for more than a decade. 

This special episode of the ChinaPower Podcast is the sixth of six featuring the audio from the China Power Project’s sixth annual conference. The third debate took place on December 17, 2021 and featured two experts debating the following proposition: “Given China’s growing power, China will have a sphere of influence in the Indo-Pacific by 2027..” China is increasingly utilizing its growing diplomatic, economic, and military power to shape developments along its periphery. Beijing has pushed in recent years to advance its economic agenda through the Belt and Road Initiative, and it has frequently sought to coerce countries through targeted economic and trade actions. China has also used its growing military power to assert its interests amid sovereignty and territorial disputes with a number of its neighbors. Yet Chinese officials have repeatedly emphasized that China is not seeking to establish a sphere of influence in the region, and instead is seeking to foster stability and economic growth in the Indo-Pacific. Among analysts of China, Beijing’s intentions and capabilities remain hotly debated. Some view Chinese activities as simply defending Beijing’s interests, while others argue that Beijing is actively making progress toward establishing a sphere of influence along its periphery.   Dr. Graham Allison, Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard University, argued that China will establish a sphere of influence in the Indo-Pacific by 2027. The Hon. David Stilwell, Former Assistant Secretary of State, East Asian and Pacific Affairs at the US Department of State, argued that China will not establish a sphere of influence in the Indo-Pacific by 2027. This event was made possible by the generous support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

This special episode of the ChinaPower Podcast is the fifth of six featuring the audio from the China Power Project’s sixth annual conference. This keynote took place on December 14, 2021 and featured US Senator Steve Daines’ discussion of Congress’ outlook on the challenges and opportunities posed by China’s growing power. Senator Daines has served as a U.S. Senator for Montana since 2015. He is currently the Co-Chair of the Senate US-China Working Group, which works to strengthen U.S. dialogue with China through monthly briefings to share expertise from key business, academic, and political leaders. In addition, Senator Daines is a Commissioner on the Congressional-Executive Commission on China, which works to establish a framework of relations with China on a wide variety of issues such as human rights, civil society, and rule of law. He also serves on the Senate Committees on Finance, Banking Housing and Urban Affairs; Energy and Natural Resources; and Indian Affairs. This event is made possible by the generous support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

This special episode of the ChinaPower Podcast is the fourth of six featuring the audio from the China Power Project’s sixth annual conference. The third debate took place on December 14, 2021, and featured two experts debating the following proposition: “Within the next two years, China will establish itself as the most influential external power within Afghanistan.” Following the United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan, China has taken measures to support the new Taliban-controlled government, including keeping its embassy open, donating vaccines and aid, and engaging in high-level diplomatic meetings with Taliban officials. Some experts and military strategists believe these actions are signs that Beijing seeks to bring Afghanistan more deeply into its geopolitical orbit. Some envision a future in which Afghanistan stands as a major partner in China’s Belt-and-Road Initiative and the Taliban closely cooperates with Beijing on national security issues such as terrorism. However, others believe China will not be able to secure a significant foothold in Afghanistan due to regional instability, previous failed economic partnerships, and even Beijing’s own concerns about getting too involved in the country. Senior Colonel Zhou Bo, Senior Fellow for the Center for International Strategy and Security (CISS) at Tsinghua University and China Forum expert, argued that within the next two years, China will establish itself as the most influential external power in Afghanistan. Dr. Seth Jones, Senior Vice President, Harold Brown Chair, and Director of the International Security Program at CSIS, argued that within the next two years, China will not establish itself as the most influential external power in Afghanistan. This event was made possible by the generous support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

This special episode of the ChinaPower Podcast is the third of six featuring the audio from the China Power Project’s sixth annual conference. The second debate took place on December 6, 2021 and featured two experts debating the following proposition: Beijing’s crackdown on technology firms will significantly stifle Chinese technological and scientific innovation.  Over the last year, Beijing initiated a sweeping crackdown and regulatory reform campaign targeting major technology firms. The Chinese government not only intervened to stop Chinese technology companies from listing abroad, but also issued steep fines and put in place new laws and regulations aimed at controlling the flow of data. While some analysts believe these crackdowns will deter technology investors and stifle innovation in China, others forecast that the crackdown may ultimately improve the innovative capabilities of Chinese companies and outweigh any short-term drawbacks. Mr. Matt Sheehan, a Fellow for the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, argued that Beijing’s crackdown on technology firms will significantly stifle Chinese technological and scientific innovation. Ms. Rui Ma, a China Tech Analyst and the Main Writer and Co-Host for Tech Buzz China, argued that Beijing’s crackdown on technology firms will not significantly stifle Chinese technological and scientific innovation. This event was made possible by generous support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

This special episode of the ChinaPower Podcast is the second of six featuring the audio from the China Power Project’s sixth annual conference. This keynote took place on December 1, 2021 and featured Secretary Christine Wormuth’s discussion of the US Army’s view of the China challenge. Secretary Wormuth was sworn into her current position in May 2021, becoming the first woman to serve as the US Army Secretary. Prior to this position, Secretary Wormuth served in numerous leadership roles at the Pentagon, including Under Secretary of Defense for Policy and Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Strategy, Plans, and Force Development. She was also Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Defense at the National Security Council during the Obama administration. Outside of government, Secretary Wormuth was formerly the director of the RAND Corporation’s International Security and Defense Policy Center, as well as a Senior Fellow at CSIS. This event was made possible by generous support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

This special episode of the ChinaPower podcast is the first of six featuring the audio from the China Power Project’s sixth annual conference. The first debate took place on November 19, 2021 and featured two experts debating the following proposition: The Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated the timeline by which China will surpass the United States to become the world’s leading economic power.  The Covid-19 pandemic ended the longest recorded economic expansion in United States history. China suffered its own historic slowdown during the initial Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan, but the impacts were less severe. As a result, some have argued that the pandemic has sped up the timeline by which China will overtake the United States to become the world’s preeminent economic power. Others have argued that Beijing’s handling of the pandemic’s economic fallout has failed to put China on solid economic footing in the long-term. Dr. Yao Yang, Professor at the China Center for Economic Research and the National School of Development at Peking University, argued that the Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated the timeline by which China will surpass the United States to become the world’s leading economic power. Mr. Gerard DiPippo, Senior Fellow in the CSIS Economics Program, argued that the Covid-19 pandemic has not accelerated the timeline by which China’s economic power will surpass that of the United States. This event was made possible by generous support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, US Representative Ami Bera joins us to discuss Congress’ view of China’s growing power. Rep. Bera explains that China has been an issue of bipartisan agreement in the US House of Representatives, Senate, and the Biden administration. Specifically, he says there is bipartisan support for Taiwan, the One China Policy, and the Taiwan Relations Act, and notes that there are more varying opinions on issues such as cooperating with China on climate change. Rep. Bera also examines how Congress views Afghanistan, the South China Sea, and Taiwan, and justifies the need to increase Taiwan’s participation in the international community. He argues that the best way for the US to compete with China is to invest domestically, specifically on issues related to infrastructure and immigration. Lastly, Rep. Bera describes a potential rocky future in US-China relations and explains that healthy competition between the two nations could improve both countries.  

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Ms. Jessica Ludwig and Mr. Kevin Sheives join us to discuss China’s sharp power. Ms. Ludwig and Mr. Sheives first define sharp power and contrast it with other forms of influence, such as soft and hard power. They also explain notable differences between China’s sharp power strategy toward mature democracies and developing nations. They argue that a clear line between China’s domestic propaganda and global media projections does not exist, and that China has emerged as a trendsetter in sharp power that can take advantage of younger democracies’ inability to recognize propaganda and disinformation. Ms. Ludwig and Mr. Sheives also analyze the dynamics of China’s sharp power at work through foreign media partnerships and social media disinformation campaigns. They then contrast the sharp power strategies of authoritarian governments, such as Russia and China, explaining that China attempts to buttress its global image while Russia seeks to foment social upheaval abroad. Finally, Ms. Ludwig and Mr. Sheives emphasize the relative strengths of democratic nations in projecting global power and offer potential options for countering Chinese sharp power.Mr. Kevin Sheives is the Associate Director at the International Forum for Democratic Studies at NED. For nearly fifteen years, Mr. Sheives served as a manager and advisor at State Department offices, leading U.S. diplomatic and governmental responses to strategic competition with China, global disinformation, and the Asia-Pacific’s rise, along with assignments elsewhere in Washington at the Defense Department, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, and Congress.Ms. Jessica Ludwig is a Senior Program Officer at the International Forum for Democratic Studies, the research and analytical section of NED. Her research focuses on authoritarian influence in emerging democracies, with a particular interest in China and Russia’s engagement with Latin America. Ms. Ludwig is co-editor of the report, “Sharp Power: Rising Authoritarian Influence”. Her writing has been published in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Global Americans, and the Journal of Democracy.