ASEAN Speaks

As Fed shift resets markets, Maybank Kim Eng’s FX strategists discuss about the sensitivity of ASEAN currencies. ASEAN equity markets mostly ended down last week except for Malaysia and Vietnam. Our Singapore REITs and Malaysia property research desks discuss where value can be found.

KL Kepong has launched a RM1.5b cash offer to buy IJM's 56% stake in IJM Plantations. Is the deal accretive and are there other noteworthy acquisition targets left within the sector? Thailand's stock market has performed well despite sluggish economic data and concerns over rising covid cases. Maria Lapiz, Maybank's Thai Research Head shares her insights and her top 3 picks for the remainder of 2021. 

Malaysia has announced a RM40bn economic stimulus package to mitigate the impact of its latest lockdown. Malaysian government securities staged a mini rally last week, is it sustainable and should investors sell into strength? Our ASEAN tech team gives the lay of the land for semiconductor suppliers in Malaysia and the global chip shortage. What are insiders doing with ASEAN tech listcos? 

U.S. next jobs report on Fri June 4 will signal if employment data is trending above the 3M moving average of 520k monthly additions, potentially fuelling inflation concerns and impacting outcome of June 17 FOMC meeting. Back in ASEAN, with Thailand’s central bank rates at almost zero, what else can Thailand do to pump prime its economy in the wake of another COVID breakout? As Malaysia enters into a nationwide total lockdown, will the government impose loan moratorium extensions?

Malaysia makes the difficult choice of accepting the stricter MCO 3.5 vs a total lockdown. Bond markets was relatively steady despite the 92bp m/m increase in US core CPI but Huarong’s de-rating remains a persistent cause for concern for the offshore debt markets. Malaysia’s CPO sector is losing price competitiveness as Indonesia’s revamped progressive tax rates are giving palm oil refiners a comparative cost advantage. Will a repeat of 2012 low utilisation and high CPO inventories lead to a 30% collapse in CPO prices?

As inflation data accelerates, the US central bank will have to decide if it is to change its monetary policy stance to control inflation. Asset dislocations will likely rise; what are the key signposts to watch for ASEAN capital markets? Among regional peers, Singapore’s stock market performance has been stellar. How will rotations flow?

ASEAN’s stock market performance continues to diverge. What are the determinants that will change this narrative for fund flows? Malaysia just wrapped up its OPR meeting on May 6. What effect does the re-imposition of mobility restrictions have on its policy rate outlook. Singapore's banking sector has just concluded its Q1 earnings season, are Sing banks still in pole position relative to regional peers?

USD could see temporary support in the interim as a new mutant wave of COVID-19 resurgence threatens India and Asia. This podcast will also explore migrant worker flows and its impact on real estate markets, crude oil trends and Thailand’s petrochemical sector, and Malaysia’s construction sector.

Inflation trends in Singapore are increasingly visible from the properties segment. The spectre of property cooling measures may lead to risks of premature tightening by regulators. Thailand’s property measures on the other hand are more supportive, which underpins Maybank Kim Eng’s positive view of the sector. Philippines stock market is the worst performing ASEAN market, but deep value is emerging.

Following the recent ratings cut in Huarong’s bonds, credit markets are unnerved by the possibility that China may actually let the state-backed distressed debt manager go into default. Over in Singapore, with the impending announcement of a cabinet reshuffle, will SGX’s strong performance and momentum come to an abrupt halt? Join us in this week's ASEAN Speaks podcast.