ASEAN Speaks

Central banks in Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam have raised interest rates higher than expected to fight inflation and manage the currency. Our economists consider the impact on economic growth including a look ahead into Malaysia’s Budget 2023 and the possibility of a technical recession in Singapore while the Sing dollar remains a safe haven currency. We also review the uptick in Singapore’s medical tourism, and Malaysia’s new automotive roadmap. 00:33 - Roundup - Winson Phoon 03:45 - Fed hike - Suhaimi Ilias 05:36 - MY Budget 2023 - Suhaimi 12:25 - ID interest rate - Lee Ju Ye 14:49 - PH interest rate - Zamros Dzulkafli 17:39 - VN interest rate - Brian Lee 21:04 - SG inflation, SGD - Chua Hak Bin 24:24 - USD, Yen, Pound, SGD - Saktiandi Supaat 27:53 - SG Medical tourism - Eric Ong 29:25 - MY auto roadmap, EVs - Liaw Thong Jung Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

Our analysts assess how ASEAN markets would react to the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) huge decision on Wednesday if it raises the interest rate by 75 or 100 basis points. 00:20 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin 03:13 - ID growth, inflation - Lee Ju Ye 06:17 - ASEAN markets - Anand Pathmakanthan 11:07 - ASEAN bond yields - Winson Phoon 15:25 - RMB - Saktiandi Supaat 18:35 - UK Budget, Pound - Saktiandi 20:50 - Palm oil prices - Ong Chee Ting Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

How many more interest rate hikes could we expect from Bank Negara Malaysia following the third hike last week? And what can we expect from Malaysia’s Budget 2023? We also unpack our ASEAN X report on China and the direction of the Renminbi (RMB) and which ASEAN currency is most sensitive to a RMB sell-off, and what the Chinese Communist Party might focus on at its Congress on the 16th of October. 00:37 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin 03:02 - MY OPR - Suhaimi Ilias 05:41 - MY Budget - Suhaimi 08:12 - RMB  - Saktiandi Supaat 11:16 - CCP meeting - Fiona Lim 13:52 - ASEAN currencies vs RMB sell-off - Saktiandi 15:06 - PH inflation - Zamros Dzulkafli 17:42 - PH conglomerates - Jacqui de Jesus 19:12 - PH telcos downgrade - Rachelleen Rodriguez 21:13 - VN policy catalysts, picks - Hoang Huy Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

Our analysts unpack the implications of US non-farm payrolls data, and major currency movements in Asia as well as the outlook on Malaysian banks, and follow the money of foreign investors. 00:22 - Roundup - Ong Seng Yeow 01:23 - US non-farm payroll, inflation - Suhaimi Ilias 04:56 - US interest rates - Winson Phoon 09:18 - MY, SG government bonds - Winson 10:42 - Yen, Euro, MYR, RMB - Saktiandi Supaat 18:32 - TH deficit - Lee Ju Ye 21:18 - PH economy, Peso - Zamros Dzulkafli 25:35 - PH top picks - Jacqui de Jesus 27:08 - MY banks - Desmond Ch’ng 29:44 - MY foreign picks - Anand Pathmakanthan Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

As the Fed warned that it is likely to impose large interest rate hikes in coming months to tame inflation, our analysts discuss the extent of ASEAN decoupling from a potential US recession, a likely technical recession in Singapore in 3Q, and when Malaysia might hold its general elections now that the tabling of Budget 2023 has been brought forward to 7th October. 00:18 - Roundup - Winson Phoon 03:31 - ASEAN decoupling - Chua Hak Bin 09:41 - SG technical recession - Hak Bin 11:19 - ID interest rate - Lee Ju Ye 15:39 - MY Budget earlier, GE15 - Suhaimi Ilias 18:31 - MYR/USD outlook - Saktiandi Supaat 22:36 - TH equities - Chan Han Chin 24:40 - TH portfolio pick - Han Chin 26:24 - Higher TP for Grab - Samuel Tan Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

As sentiment on Chinese property stocks lifted last week, we discuss our outlook for bonds. We also unpack our special reports on Philippines remittances, ASEAN equities strategy, Thailand’s telco spectrum, and our forecast on Vietnamese banks. 00:22 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin 02:17 - CNY bonds, property - Winson Phoon 06:33 - TH GDP, THB - Lee Ju Ye 10:02 - PH interest rates, remittances - Zamros Dzulkafli 14:52 - ASEAN strategy - Anand Pathmakanthan 17:36 - TH telco - Wasu Mattanapotchanart 21:43 - VN banks - Quan Trong Thanh Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

Following the US markets’ spectacular performance on Friday where the S&P closed at 4,280, our analysts at Maybank IBG highlight what we need to look out for in ASEAN this week. We also peek into our brand new ASEAN ESG Alpha report for top ESG picks. 00:20 - Roundup - Ong Seng Yeow 01:59 - MY GDP - Suhaimi Ilias 07:35 - GE stocks - Anand Pathmakanthan 09:43 - Yield curve flattening - Winson Phoon 11:46 - Bond picks - See Tho Mun Yi 13:15 - TH interest rate - Lee Ju Ye 15:18 - TH banks - Jesada Techahusdin 16:35 - TH tourism - Yuwanee Promaporn 17:32 - TH telco - Wasu Mattanapotchanart 22:00 - ASEAN ESG Alpha - Jigar Shah 23:16 - ESG picks - Chan Han Chin Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

Our analysts at Maybank IBG unpack Singapore’s bank earnings, stock call upgrades for ASEAN, and consider if Vietnam’s slowing exports are a warning sign for the rest of Asia, and how much more legs will the ASEAN bond rally have, and should investors subscribe to Singapore’s 50 year sovereign green bond. 00:21 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin 03:02 - SG banks - Thilan Wickramasinghe 06:07 - ASEAN bonds rally - Winson Phoon 10:15 - PH BSP moves - Suhaimi Ilias 13:27 - ID GDP - Lee Ju Yen 17:27 - VN exports slow - Brian Lee 20:09 - ASEAN fortnightly - Anand Pathmankanthan 22:33 - VN earnings - Hoang Huy Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

Tan Sri Shahril Ridza Ridzuan, Chairman of Axiata, and former Managing Director of Khazanah Nasional and Chief Executive Officer of Employees Provident Fund (EPF) discusses leadership, the real value of a digital bank license, nurturing innovation and picking the right talent, and the path of transformation in Malaysia. Dato’ Fad’l Mohamed, CEO of Maybank Investment Bank speaks with the self-confessed science geek and gamer on C-Suite Talks. Shahril’s top three recommended books: 1) The First Law Trilogy, by Joe Abercrombie (fiction) 2) Alexander Hamilton, by Ron Chernow (history) 3) The Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks, by Rebecca Skloot (science) Producer: Noelle Lim, assisted by Shirley Ann Lau, Maybank IBG

As the US enters a technical recession but with strong jobs data, how will this affect the Fed’s decision on interest rates in September? And in a slower growth environment, how resilient are banks and REITs?  00:21 - Roundup - Ong Seng Yeow 01:15 - FOMC expectations - Chua Hak Bin 06:36 - Bond outlook - Winson Phoon 10:35 - TH interest rate - Lee Ju Ye 11:54 - SGD/MYR - Saktiandi Supaat 14:20 - Chinese manufacturing - Saktiandi 15:41 - MY market bottoming - Chan Han Chin 17:50 - MY GE - Han Chin 19:55 - SG, MY, ID banks - Thilan Wickramasinghe 21:38 - MY bank picks - Desmond Ch’ng 22:30 - SG REITs - Chua Su Tye Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG