ASEAN Speaks

We look into Bank Negara Malaysia’s decision to keep the OPR unchanged at 2.75%, and our expectations of Bank Indonesia’s policy meeting on Thursday. We also assess the potential impact of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on Malaysia and Singapore banks. We issued a seminal report on sustainability and found that ASEAN companies under our coverage expanded their ESG adoption despite geopolitics and anti-ESG propaganda had hurt ESG flows and performance. 00:25 - Roundup - Winson Phoon 04:13 - MY OPR, inflation - Suhaimi Ilias 08:14 - PH inflation, interest rate - Zamros Dzulkifli 11:03 - TH inflation - Lee Ju Ye 13:24 - ID interest rate - Lee Ju Ye 14:18 - MY banks - Desmond Ch’ng 15:53 - SVB failure on MY - Desmond Ch’ng 17:19 - SG banks downgrade - Thilan Wickramasinghe 19:11 - SVB failure on SG - Thilan Wickramasinghe 20:36 - ESG performance - Neerav Dalal 26:24 - ASEAN strategy - Anand Pathmakanthan 28:33 - MY properties - Wong Wei Sum Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

As latest data shows that inflation in the US remains elevated while China is focused on growth, our analysts dissect its implications on ASEAN economies and earnings. We also watch for China’s National People’s Congress this week, as well as headwinds slowing Vietnam’s GDP growth as a result of bond defaults. 00:26 – Roundup - Suhaimi Ilias 04:55 - ID interest rate - Lee Ju Ye 06:15 - ID earnings repatriation  - Lee Ju Ye 08:04 - TH external trade - Lee Ju Ye 09:42 - VN GDP - Brian Lee 15:35 - Sustainable bonds - Mun Yi Se Tho 18:45 - USD outlook - Saktiandi Supaat 21:46 - China NPC - Saktiandi Supaat 23:56 - ASEAN 4Q earnings - Anand Pathmakanthan 26:22 - MY banking - Desmond Ch’ng 28:56 - PH banking - Rachellen Rodriguez 30:45 - MY EV, Tesla - TJ Liaw Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

Our analysts discuss Malaysia's retabled Budget 2023 and its implications on the economy, bonds and equities. 00:15 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin 02:27 - MY Budget 2023 - Suhaimi Ilias 10:51 - MY bond markets - Winson Phoon 15:31 - MY equities - Anand Pathmakanthan 18:14 - ASEAN equities - Anand Pathmakanthan 19:22 - VN property bond defaults - Anand Pathmakanthan 21:21 - MY inflation - Zamros Dzulkifli 24:13 - SG inflation - Chua Hak Bin Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

This Friday, on the 24 February, Malaysia will be re-tabling its Budget 2023. We expect it will set the budget deficit to GDP ratio at -5% versus the original Budget at negative 5.5%. We also look at the impact of Singapore’s Budget that was released last week. 00:29 - Roundup - Winson Phoon 04:04 - MY Budget 2023 - Suhaimi Ilias 09:15 - SG Budget - Chua Hak Bin 13:54 - SG Budget on equities - Thilan Wickramasinghe 16:14 - SG exports - Lee Ju Ye 17:47 - TH GDP - Lee Ju Ye 19:15 - ID interest rates - Lee Ju Ye 20:56 - PH interest rate - Zamros Dzulkifli 23:20 - MY plantation - Ong Chee Ting 27:02 - PH consumer - Daphne Sze Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

Our analysts dovetail into the effects of China’s re-opening and the impact on Singapore’s bank earnings to be released this week. We also discuss our first reports of the year on Singapore REITs and China’s inflation; revisit property developers in Penang; and consider the policy stance of Kazuo Ueda, expected to be the next governor of the Bank of Japan. 00:23 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin 02:37 - MY GDP - Suhaimi Ilias 04:46 - MY employment - Suhaimi Ilias 07:21 - ASEAN strategy - Anand Pathmakanthan 10:21 - Kazuo Ueda appointment - Saktiandi Supaat 14:06 - China inflation - Brian Lee 16:33 - TH hikes - Lee Ju Ye 18:29 - SG banks - Thilan Wickramsinghe 21:56 - SG REITs - Krishna Guha 24:12 - MY property - Wong Wei Sum 25:55 - TH healthcare - Yuwanee Prommaporn Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

At the FOMC meeting last week, the Fed hiked rate by 25bp, and recognised that the disinflationary process has started. Our analysts project what’s ahead for more hikes, implications on bonds and our forex strategy for ASEAN. Singapore will also be unveiling its Budget on 14 February - we examine how it will be a Valentine’s gift for Singaporeans. 00:29 - Roundup - Suhaimi Ilias 05:13 - US rates - Winson Phoon 07:07 - ASEAN bonds - Winson Phoon 07:23 - SG Budget - Chua Hak Bin 10:55 - ID inflation - Lee Ju Ye 13:19 - VN & Cambodia economics - Brian Lee 16:36 - USD, Yen, MYR, Peso - Saktiandi Supaat 22:53 - ASEAN currencies - Saktiandi Supaat 25:01 - PH conglos - Jacqui de Jesus 26:54 - PH telco - Rachellen Rodriguez Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

Our analysts discuss the impact of China’s re-opening across ASEAN in terms of growth and inflation; what we need to watch as the US hits its debt ceiling, and structural issues of Malaysia’s oil palm sector. 00:21 - Roundup - Suhaimi Ilias 04:50 - MY banks - Desmond Ch’ng 06:58 - ID interest rate outlook - Lee Ju Ye 08:38 - TH interest rate outlook - Lee Ju Ye 09:40 - PH GDP - Zamros Dzulkifli 12:17 - SG GDP, inflation - Chua Hak Bin 16:26 - MY, ID bond markets - Winson Phoon 19:29 - FX report - Saktiandi Supaat 23:27 - US debt ceiling - Saktiandi Supaat 24:55 - MY plantation - Ong Chee Ting 28:43 - ASEAN markets - Anand Pathmakanthan Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

While fading re-opening tailwinds and interest rate hikes will weigh on growth in 2023, balanced by China’s Covid easing, our analysts discuss undervalued beneficiaries in ASEAN, and Indonesia electric vehicle (EV) stocks to watch. 00:19 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin 02:16 - ASEAN highlights - Anand Pathmakanthan 07:15 - Gloves - Wong Wei Sum 08:22 - TH picks, elections - Yuwanee Prommaporn 10:51 - TH banks - Jesada Techahusdin 13:19 - PH picks - Jacqui De Jesus 15:40 - PH consumer - Daphne Sze 18:25 - ID EV - Richard Suherman Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

The Indonesian equity market was one of the best performing in Asia Pacific but may not be so in 2023 despite China’s re-opening and pre-election goodies. Jeffrosenberg Chen Lim, Head of Equity Research at Maybank Sekuritas explains. Producer & Presenter: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

While ASEAN has been a defensive harbour for investors, the fortunes of individual markets would vary. Our analysts discuss supportive factors and potential headwinds. 00:14 - Roundup - Suhaimi Ilias 01:14 - SG growth - Chua Hak Bin 04:52 - ID, TH inflation - Lee Ju Ye 07:32 - PH inflation - Zamros Dzulkifli 09:32 - Credit outlook - Winson Phoon 13:34 - MY equities - Anand Pathmakanthan 15:32 - SG equities - Thilan Wickramasinghe 16:40 - ID equities - Jeff Lim 18:11 - VN equities - Hoang Huy 20:33 - Crackdown - Huy 22:34 - Fengshui - Thilan 24:11 - Plantation - Ong Chee Ting Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG