ASEAN Speaks

A tentative agreement has been reached between the Republicans and Democrats that will help avoid a debt default. Over in ASEAN, we review a slew of indicators - inflation and interest rate expectations - and how selected sectors are doing. On currencies, we analyse why the Ringgit has been weakening against the US dollar. Also based on past US interest rate cycles, how will the US dollar do when the Fed starts cutting rates?  00:32 - Roundup - Winson Phoon 03:44 - SG GDP, inflation- Chua Hak Bin 06:58 - MY inflation, foreign reserve - Suhaimi Ilias 11:05 - ID interest rate, GDP - Lee Ju Ye 14:03 - VN interest rate - Brian Lee 15:25 - CN interest rate - Brian Lee 16:38 - USDMYR, SGDMYR - Saktiandi Supaat 23:23 - ID property - William Jefferson  26:44 - PH equities - Jacqui de Jesus 28:20 - TH telco - Wasu Mattanapotchanart

Here is the highlight from today’s Weekly Briefing. Non-oil domestic exports or NODX extended its decline in April as exports to China contracted sharply, offsetting the rebound to the US and Europe. What is the probability of a recession in Singapore? Suhaimi Ilias speaks with Chua Hak Bin. For the full conversation with other analysts, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

While the US debates on raising its debt ceiling, we discuss our projections for Thailand post-elections, ASEAN equities as investors stay on the sidelines, China’s economy and the Renminbi, and the effects on palm oil output if El Nino arrives. 00:22 - Roundup - Suhaimi Ilias  06:44 - SG NDOX - Chua Hak Bin 09:31 - TH GDP - Lee Ju Ye 12:04 - TH markets - Chak Reungsinpinya 14:59 - TH retail - Suttatip Peerasub 16:53 - CN economy - Brian Lee 20:37 - Renminbi - Fiona Lim 23:05 - PH interest rate - Zamros Dzulkafli 24:49 - PH banks - Rachellen Rodriguez 26:29 - ASEAN equities - Anand Pathmakanthan 29:09 - El Nino effects - Ong Chee Ting

Here is the highlight from our Weekly Briefing. The election results in Thailand show that the Move Forward Party is leading, with Pheu Thai a close second so far. What are the implications for the economy and markets? Winson Phoon, Head of Fixed Income Research, speaks with Lee Ju Ye, our economist, and Chak Reungsinpinya, Head of Equity Research in Thailand. For the full conversation with other analysts, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks. Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG

Bringing you the latest highlights about ASEAN - economic data in China, Malaysia and the Philippines; Singapore bank earnings; Thailand’s election results; and the impact of geo-economic fragmentation as President Joe Biden signs an executive order this week to further limit tech investments in China.  00:32 - Roundup - Winson Phoon 03:57 - TH elections - Lee Ju Ye 07:17 - TH markets - Chak Reungsinpinya 09:37 - MY GDP - Suhaimi Ilias 14:14 - PH GDP - Zamros Dzulkafli 17:59 - China economy - Brian Lee 22:10 - Geoeconomic fragmentation - Chua Hak Bin 26:36 - SG banks - Thilan Wickramasinghe

In the highlight of our Weekly Briefing, we discuss what markets are pricing in, and data to look out for this week that is more important than the CPI. Chua Hak Bin, Co-Head of Macro speaks with Winson Phoon, Head of Fixed Income Research. For the full conversation with other analysts, go to this week's episode on Weekly Briefing.

A range of issues from the Fed and Bank Negara Malaysias’ move to raise interest rates by 25 bps, as well as our revisions to major currencies outlook, and our ASEAN including Singapore REITs and Vietnam strategy. 00:22 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin 02:08 - Fed policy rate - Suhaimi Ilias 05:14 - Fed fund futures - Winson Phoon 08:24 - MY OPR - Suhaimi Ilias 11:19 - MY GDP - Suhaimi Ilias 12:28 - ID GDP - Lee Ju Ye 14:56 - Currency revisions - Saktiandi Supaat 19:25 - ASEAN picks - Anand Pathmakanthan 23:03 - SG REITs - Krishna Guha 25:19 - VN strategy - Hoang Huy

The highlight from our Weekly Briefing is the looming US debt ceiling crisis. Over the weekend, Janet Yellen had warned that the US Treasury could run out of cash by 1st of June. Chua Hak Bin, Co-Head of Macro discusses with Saktiandi Supaat, Head of Forex Research on the possible scenarios ahead. For the full conversation with other analysts, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

Over the weekend, JP Morgan announced that it will acquire First Republic Bank. And Janet Yellen said that the US Treasury could run out of cash by 1st of June and will have to raise the debt ceiling. We expect the process to be prolonged due to political differences, and expect market choppiness. We also review if the dust has settled for AT1s following Credit Suisse’s write-off last month. 00:31 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin 03:11 - AT1 bonds - Winson Phoon 05:10 - AT1 & MY banks - Winson Phoon 07:22 - AT1 legal suit - Winson Phoon 08:23 - MY inflation, interest rate - Zamros Dzulkafli 11:52 - US debt ceiling - Saktiandi Supaat 16:36 - Currency shields - Saktiandi Supaat 20:11 - ASEAN picks - Anand Pathmakanthan 23:39 - VN economy - Brian Lee 26:54 - VN banks, property - Quan Trong Thanh 31:17 - PH property - Miguel Sevidal

The highlight from our Weekly Briefing is whether the US dollar would end its dominance by the end of this decade, and the emerging beneficiary as central banks re-balance their currencies portfolio. Chua Hak Bin, Co-Head of Macro, speaks to Suhaimi Ilias, Group Chief Economist. For the full conversation with other analysts, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.