ASEAN Speaks

We unpack our analysis on China as we downgrade its GDP growth to 4.8% in 2023 from 5%, and 4.4% in 2024 from 4.6%, and consider the pressure points on earnings in Malaysia and ASEAN including the banks. 00:20 - Roundup - Suhaimi Ilias 05:19 - China macro - Erica Tay 9:21 - TH macro - Erica Tay 11:42 - PH macro - Zamros Dzulkafli 16:24 - MY earnings - Wong Chew Hann 24:05 - ASEAN banks - Thilan Wickramasinghe 26:11 - ASEAN catalysts - Anand Pathmakanthan 28:58 - TH energy - Chak Reungsinpinya

ASEAN’s share of world foreign direct investments had climbed to 17% in 2022, almost triple its 6% share in 2016. The next wave of investments are expected to boost the green sector as governments announce concrete measures to transition to net zero. Chua Hak Bin, Co-Head of Macro discusses his report. For the full conversation with other analysts at Maybank, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

We round up key data and events in Southeast Asian economies against the backdrop of major central banks across the world continuing to battle rising risks to growth. 00:19 - Roundup - Suhaimi Ilias 05:00 - Green manufacturing - Chua Hak Bin 09:54 - VN GDP - Brian Lee 13:46 - USD, Renminbi changes - Saktiandi Supaat 20:50 - Bonds - Winson Phoon 24:50 - PH banks - Rachelleen Rodriguez 27:03 - MY banks - Desmond Ch’ng

After months of political deadlock, a Prime Minister is finally chosen in Thailand. How well could markets rebound? Chak Reungsinpinya, Head of Research at Maybank Securities Thailand speaks with Chua Hak Bin. For the full conversation with other analysts at Maybank, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

Deep diving into our stock picks as ASEAN markets continue to lag North Asia. We also consider the beneficiaries of the LRT project in Penang and developments in Iskandar, Johor, as Country Garden’s Forest City becomes a special financial zone. Meanwhile, what is ahead for REITs in Singapore? 00:27 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin 04:01 - MY inflation, interest rate - Zamros Dzulkafli 07:55 - TH GDP - Erica Tay 11:50 - TH equities - Chak Reungsinpinya 14:36 - ASEAN equities - Anand Pathmakanthan 16:29 - Penang LRT - Wong Wei Sum 17:39 - Forest City, Iskandar - Wong Wei Sum 19:45 - SG REITs - Krishna Guha 22:02 - ID consumer - Willy Goutama 24:24 - ID GDP - Brian Lee

Malaysia’s 2Q GDP growth fell below consensus, Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) fell at a steeper pace in July, while Indonesia exports remained soft. Will it get better or worse? 00:22 - Roundup - Winson Phoon 03:17 - MY 2Q GDP - Suhaimi Ilias 09:02 - SG NODX, GDP - Chua Hak Bin 11:34 - ID trade, interest rates - Brian Lee 15:01 - PH interest rate - Zamros Dzulkafli 17:44 - CN slowdown - Erica Tay 20:58 - USDCNY, GBPMYR - Saktiandi Supaat 27:17 - MY bonds - Se Tho Mun Yi 29:35 - TH retail - Suttatip Peerasub

In this week’s highlight, we unpack China’s July data that showed a slowdown enveloping China’s economy. Is the worst yet to come? Erica Tay, our Economist, speaks with Winson Poon. For the full conversation with other analysts at Maybank, go to today's Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

In this week’s highlight, we review how Malaysia’s New Industrial Master Plan could be a gamechanger. Anand Pathmakanthan, Head of Regional Equity Research, speaks with Winson Phoon. For the full conversation with other analysts at Maybank, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

Our analysts unpack the economic numbers in China, Indonesia and the Philippines and also the downgrade in GDP forecast for Singapore. Over in Malaysia, we expect business as usual after the state elections, and look forward to new policy announcements including any updates on the KL-Sing apore High Speed Rail project. Meanwhile, youth unemployment and under-employment rates remain sticky while informal jobs are at record high. While there were broad-based increases in employment growth across sectors, manufacturing jobs and income growth trended lower. 00:27 - Roundup - Winson Phoon 04:04 - SG GDP downgrade - Chua Hak Bin 07:15 - SG monetary - Chua Hak Bin 08:22 - MY unemployment - Suhaimi Ilias 11:31 - MY 2Q GDP - Suhaimi Ilias 12:49 - MY post-state elections - Suhaimi Ilias 14:28 - CN easing? - Erica Tay 17:00 - PH 2Q GDP - Zamros Dzulkafli 19:27 - PH monetary - Zamros Dzulkafli 20:06 - ID 2Q GDP - Brian Lee 22:35 - ASEAN stocks - Anand Pathmakanthan 24:10 - MY industrial plan - Anand Pathmakanthan 25:59 - MY plantation - Ong Chee Ting 28:56 - KL-SG high speed rail - Ong Chee Ting 31:33 - Shipping - Loh Yan Jin

It’s been a rocky time for the property sector in China, and the Politburo has elevated its risk as the top concern for the economy. Erica Tay, an economist at Maybank Investment Banking Group discusses the wider implications and another risk to watch out for. Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank IBG