ASEAN Speaks

As the year is concluding, we highlight our expectations for Malaysia's 2024 economic reforms amidst the runway to the next General Elections, while exploring the impact of subsidies rationalization on inflation. Additionally, we examine Thailand's lower than expected Q3 GDP, and share insights from our Thai Bank Day, as well as discuss our equities strategy for Indonesia. 00:33 - Roundup - Winson Phoon 03:56 - MY 2024 - Suhaimi Ilias 08:52 - MY balance of payments - Zamros Dzulkafli 10:26 - MY inflation - Zamros Dzulkafli 13:24 - SG inflation - Brian Lee 15:45 - SG GDP - Brian Lee 17:58 - ID interest rate - Brian Lee 19:33 - TH GDP - Erica Tay 23:35 - MY banks - Desmond Ch’ng 25:48 - TH Bank Day - Jesada Techahusdin 27:18 - ID strategy - Jeffrosenberg Chenlim Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank 

Indonesia’s general elections will take place on the 14th of February next year. Who is likely to win in what we expect to be a prolonged contest? Brian Lee, our Economist, discusses with Chua Hak Bin. For the full conversation with other analysts, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

Towards the year end, ASEAN markets are expected to do better on the back of more resilient economic data. Our analysts discuss this including the outcome of President Joe Biden and Xi Jinpings’ meeting. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s general elections will take place on the 14 February next year - who is likely to lead in what we expect to be a prolonged contest?  00:25 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin 04:07 - MY 3Q GDP - Suhaimi Ilias 09:35 - PMX at APAC - Suhaimi Ilias 11:32 - CN 4Q GDP - Erica Tay 14:34 - CN property - Erica Tay 16:45 - Biden-Xi - Erica Tay 18:14 - USD/Yuan - Saktiandi Supaat 21:57 - ID elections - Brian Lee 24:48 - PH rate hikes - Zamros Dzulkafli 26:51 - ASEAN equities - Anand Pathmakanthan 29:23 - CPO prices - Ong Chee Ting Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank

In our highlight today, Erica Tay, our Economist discusses with Suhaimi Ilias on the outlook for China’s growth as export weaknesses continue while imports pick up. For the full conversation with her on China and other analysts, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

Is China’s economy propped up by policy support or demand? In the other large economy, Indonesia - GDP growth moderated to the lowest since the third quarter of 2021. Will growth be firmer towards the end of the year and in the lead up to the presidential elections in 2024? Meanwhile in Thailand, the Prime Minister had announced its largest stimulus in the form of cash handout via the digital wallet.  00:29 - Roundup - Suhaimi Ilias 06:49 - CN trade, GDP - Erica Tay 13:33 - PH GDP, interest rate - Zamros Dzulkafli 17:30 - ID GDP - Brian Lee 21:17 - Policy actions, reserves - Saktiandi Supaat 28:27 - PH equities - Rachelleen Rodriguez 31:45 - TH equities - Chan Reungsinpinya  Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank

Trade and manufacturing data in the ASEAN-6 markets are showing nascent signs of recovery. Suhaimi Ilias speaks to Chua Hak Bin, our co-Head of Macro on Maybank’s outlook. For the full conversation with other analysts, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

Given events over the weekend, the Middle East conflict may escalate, impacting currencies and other assets, and risk spurring inflation again. Meanwhile, the US's robust GDP growth, backed by deficit spending and subsidies for semiconductor, will help drive ASEAN export growth. How might these different developments affect ASEAN and central banks' decisions on interest rates? 00:30 - Roundup - Suhaimi Ilias 06:45 - Regional green shoots - Chua Hak Bin 11:28 - PH interest rate - Zamros Dzulkafli 14:20 - TH macro - Erica Tay 18:52 - FX - Saktiandi Supaat 24:16 - ID property - William Jefferson 25:49 - SG telco - Kelvin Tan Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank

Why did the Ringgit drop to a record low? Chua Hak Bin speaks to Saktiandi Supaat, the Head of Forex Research at Maybank. For the full conversation with other analysts, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.

Amidst geopolitical tensions and higher for longer interest rates, we unpack Malaysia’s maiden GDP advanced estimate for the third quarter, the better than expected growth in China, the outlook of the Ringgit and Rupiah, and if there is more downside to Singapore REITs. 00:24 - Roundup - Chua Hak Bin 05:15 - MY 3Q GDP, inflation - Suhaimi Ilias 10:03 - CN GDP - Erica Tay 14:31 - Ringgit - Saktiandi Supaat 17:29 - Rupiah - Saktiandi Supaat 19:57 - FX opportunities - Saktiandi Supaat 21:46 - ASEAN picks - Anand Pathmakanthan 23:44 - SG REITs - Krishna Guha 25:26 - PH rice price - Daphne Sze Producer: Noelle Lim, Maybank

The highlight for this week is the beneficiaries of Malaysia’s Budget 2024. Wong Chew Hann, our Malaysian Head of Equity Research discusses. For the full analysis on Budget and updates from other analysts at Maybank, go to the latest Weekly Briefing episode on ASEAN Speaks.