Money For the Rest of Us

How the composition of Tesla's autopilot software gives clues to how we should invest, recognizing there are no perfect algorithms for driving or investing.In this episode you will learn:Why Americans are afraid of self-driving cars.How autonomous automobile software works.Why people reject even the best possible algorithms.What are examples of safety features and rules of thumb we should build into our investing process.Why does everyone think a recession is coming soon even though there is little evidence currently.Thanks to WIX and Dashlane for sponsoring the episode.For show notes and more information on this episode click here.[0:17] The pervading fear of self-driving cars, despite their safety features.[3:33] Why do people fear algorithms and prefer human decision-making?[7:45] Algorithmic decision-making has proven to be most accurate.[10:10] Automating your investing is like choosing an automated vehicle.[12:06] Keeping within the guardrails of investing strategy.[15:44] How to diversify your portfolio as an additional guardrail.[17:31] Is a recession really looming on the horizon?[20:16] Don’t maximize for perfect answers.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

What are negative interest rates, why they could come to the U.S. and what investors can do about it.In this episode you will learn:How negative interest rates are even possible.How longer life spans, central bank actions, changing time preferences and the FIRE movement are contributing to negative interest rates.What is the paradox of thrift.How investors can earn a positive return on bonds even if interest rates are negative.What are some indicators to watch for that could signal imminent negative interest rates in the U.S.How individuals need to adjust their lifestyles in an era of negative interest rates.Thanks to Peloton and The Great Courses Plus for sponsoring the episode.For show notes and more information on this episode click here.[0:20] Germany government bonds go negative for the first time.[2:38] Understanding savings: the paradox of thrift. [6:35] The concept of the individual choice and the perceived expense of saving. [11:05] The savings glut could lead to negative interest rates in the U.S.[14:40] Three reasons one would invest in negative-yielding bonds. [18:38] Central banks are influencing the spread of negative-yielding bonds.[20:29] What could happen to the U.S. economy if interest rates fell.[22:11] Three factors David is looking at for an indication of falling interest rates.[25:49] What we can do if U.S. interest rates go negative. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Explore the pros and cons of investing in gold, its historical performance, effectiveness as an inflation hedge, and role as a safe haven asset. Delve into gold's relationship with fear and momentum, the challenges it faces as a safe haven, and why it is considered a speculation. Learn how to invest in gold via ETFs, physical coins, or futures market, and why experts like Ray Dalio recommend it while Warren Buffett remains skeptical.

How a less energy intensive and more regenerative economy will allow the developing the world to advance without breaching ecological boundaries.In this episode you’ll learn:What is the difference between circular and linear supply chains.What is doughnut economics?What are adaptive preferences and how they led David to trade in a BMW 650i for a Toyota Prius.How electric vehicles and the proliferation of solar panels are leading to a less energy-intensive economy.How the reduction of litter is an example of changing culture.Thanks to NetSuite and Dashlane for sponsoring the episode.For show notes and more information on this episode click here.[0:20] Creating a global economy that is better—not bigger.[3:18] A circular economy is better than a linear one.[6:20] The growth constraints of a circular economy.[9:08] Being wise in our aspirations.[12:55] David’s Tesla experience changed his perspective on investments.[14:52] The power of energy transitions.[18:02] Making more economical choices concerning energy transitions.[20:04] How are we judging our well-being?[23:07] Redefining what we consider beautiful.[24:17] Making a better global economy begins with you.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Why has value investing underperformed growth investing for over twelve years and how to position your portfolio for the eventual rebound in value investing.In this episode you will learn:The difference between growth and value investing and why value investing outperforms growth investing over the long-term.How value and growth indices are constructed and how they differ from fundamental indexing.What are the risks and opportunities of investing in concentrated, deep-value managers.Why value investing will eventually rebound.Thanks to WIX and Sleep Number for sponsoring the episode.For show notes and more information on this episode click here.[0:18] What is value investing?[2:07] A historical look at growth vs. value yields. [5:41] The return of the value stock in the early 2000s. [11:07] The twelve and a half years of underperforming value stocks. [13:09] The sectors controlling the performance of value and growth stocks. [15:01] Better understanding the indices. [20:31] Using fundamentally weighted indices to balance your portfolio. [23:10] Are underperforming managers struggling because of poor skills or because of unfavored strategies?[29:20] While value may be difficult to predict, it isn’t dead.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Has the off-shore dollar market in terms of dollar financing and currency hedging gotten so big that it can dictate Federal Reserve monetary policy including the expected short-term interest rate cut by the Fed at its July 2019 open market committee meeting? In other words, has the Federal Reserve lost its ability to conduct monetary policy and control interest rates as it sees fit and is now in search of other tools?In this episode you’ll learn:Why the Federal Reserve is puzzled by how U.S. interest rates are behaving.How the large but opaque off-shore dollar lending and currency hedging market could be strengthening the dollar, slowing the global economy and pushing down interest rates.What is leading to a global dollar shortage.Why the Federal Reserve is researching other policy tools.What investors can do to protect against uncertainty regarding the dollarThanks to ButcherBox and Policygenius for sponsoring the episode.For show notes and more information on this episode click here.[0:20] The suspected outcome of the Federal Reserve Committee Meeting on July 30th and 31st. [3:04] Is the Federal Reserve’s inconsistency, in this case, something to fear?[6:31] The influence of offshore U.S. dollars on the Federal Reserve. [9:10] The issue of undocumented offshore dollar-denominated debt. [12:06] The ramifications of the inability of the global supply chain to access the dollars they need. [15:21] Banks are less willing to lend dollars while also demanding more “pristine” collateral. [18:36] The complexity of the global U.S. dollar matrix. [21:06] Steps to take to cushion your portfolio against any ramifications of a lower Federal Reserve interest rate.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Will Facebook's Libra Cryptocurrency transform money as we know it or is it "the most invasive and dangerous form of surveillance devised thus far?" How does the Libra compare to Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar in terms of the attributes of money.In this episode you’ll learn:What is the Libra and how does it differ from Bitcoin.What are the different attributes of money.What is proof of work and proof of stake for cryptocurrencies.What is the difference between permissionless and permission-based systems for cryptocurrency.Thanks to WIX and Peloton for sponsoring the episode. Use code MONEY for Peloton.For show notes and more information on this episode click here.[0:17] Praise and criticism of the Libra. [1:56] What defines money, and does the Libra match up? [3:53] Proof of work vs. Proof of stake: Libra vs. Cryptocurrency.  [9:52] The role of Libra BFT: creating a permission-less and sustainable currency. [12:30] Libra’s claim that it has intrinsic value by being backed by assets. [16:00] Measuring the reserves and political power of Libra.[17:46] How new money is created by Libra compared to other currencies. [21:05] Who makes up the Libra validators?[22:36] Possible issues with taxes and regulation. [24:42] Comparing libra to other cryptocurrencies and the U.S. dollar.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

How the demand by corporations and individuals to turn single-family homes into rental units is pushing up home prices, making it more difficult for first-time homebuyers to purchase a house. In this episode you'll learn:Why the United Nations is accusing certain countries and corporations of treating housing as a tradable financial commodity rather than a human right.Why Blackstone believes it is helping to solve the housing crisis by buying and renting single family homes and that the United Nations is wrong in its accusations.How the drive by corporations and individuals to own rental housing is pushing up home prices, but not necessarily rents.Why the U.S. has a chronic affordable housing shortage and what can be done about it.Thanks to Vistaprint and WIX for sponsoring the episode.For show notes and more information on this episode click here.[0:17] The concern of the U.N. with houses being treated as a commodity vs. a right. [2:27] The rise of rent-backed securities and the debated role of Blackstone. [8:20] The impact of single institutions on the national rent average. [9:59] House flipping vs. renting. [11:34] Buying a home to rent through a company. [12:56] David’s personal experience with being outbid on a house. [14:25] Why financialization is driving up home prices—not rent. [19:48] The housing crisis for those with low income. [22:53] Possible solutions for the rental housing crisis.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

How the power of compounding applies not only to wealth, but influence, expertise, and creativity. How non-monetary investments can lead to greater monetary wealth and satisfaction.In this episode, you will learn:Why the rule of 72 and the power of compounding are hindered by portfolio losses.Why the sequence of returns impacts investment performance, but also our expectations.How what we experience in the world is made up of separate glimpses and events.What are non-monetary things that compound with time and why there are no short-cuts.How to focus our attention on things that compound.How non-monetary investments of our time can increase our monetary wealth.Thanks to Vistaprint and Sleep Number for sponsoring the episode.For show notes and more information on this episode click here.[0:20] The dangers of oversimplified compounding schemes.[4:30] Our experiences influence what we expect to happen.[7:57] A picture made up of pictures taken through time.[11:26] There are no shortcuts to forming experience.[15:05] Influence is created by passing through time—not by purchasing it.[18:32] Expertise, polish, perfection are all built by passing through time.[19:41] Taking the time to invest in creative work through time.[22:01] Time brings age—and that is okay.[23:11] Passing through time brings wisdom and experience.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

How does artificial intelligence and machine learning work and what are some examples of how individual investors can use AI in their investing.In this episode you will learn:What is artificial intelligence, machine learning and deep learning.How is AI being used by different industries.How are AI models built with supervised and unsupervised learning.What are the components of a quantitative trading model and why it is insufficient to have an AI based stock ranking service.What are examples of AI based investment services and AI ETFs available to individuals.Why using AI to make investment decisions is so difficult.Thanks to Warby Parker and WIX for sponsoring the episode.For show notes and more information on this episode click here.[0:20] The two types of AI: rules-based & deep learning.[3:35] Some examples of artificial intelligence.[4:59] How machine learning systems work.[6:10] Supervised learning vs. unsupervised learning. [9:10] Training deep learning AI models.  [12:46] Complications with how deep learning models come up with their answers.[14:31] The role of AI in predicting interest rates.[17:16] Understanding the different factors and components of AI models when it comes to investing.[19:43] David’s personal experience with an AI-based investing service. [23:29] The Equbot and investing in ETFs.[25:46] The difficulties of using AI as an individual investor.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.