The Sound of Economics

When the dust settles after the recent European elections, and as the new Commission takes office, the problem of climate change - and its accompanying policy challenges - will remain one of the EU's chief agenda items.One significant facet is the transition of Europe's energy generation to more renewable sources. The EU has to find a way to decarbonise particular sectors much more quickly than has been managed so far, while allowing for and managing the distributional consequences of such policies for the continent's population.Simone Tagliapietra has co-written a research paper on energy transition with his Bruegel colleague Georg Zachmann, as well as Jean-Michel Glachant, director of the Florence School of Regulation; Pedro Linares, professor at Universidad Pontificia Comillas; Andreas Loeschel, professor at the University of Muenster; and Ottmar Edenhofer, director and chief economist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.If you would like to read more on this topic, we suggest Simone Tagliapietra's article the geopolitical implications of the global energy transition. Equally, we recommend an episode of our Backstage podcast series, where the same scholar hosts a discussion on the next decade of energy transition in Europe with Sir Philip Lowe, former director general at the European Commission, DG ENER, and Alberto Pototschnig, director at the European Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER).

A difficult proposition faces the new ECB president – monetary union remains incomplete, the bank lacks room to manoeuvre in applying new tools, and it is not yet clear what constitutes the new economic ‘normal’.In this episode of 'The Sound of Economics' Bruegel director Guntram Wolff addresses deputy director Maria Demertzis and research fellow Grégory Claeys, who together with senior fellow Francesco Papadia have written a memo to the incoming ECB president.In their note, the authors state that the ECB needs to begin this eight-year term by reviewing monetary policy framework to account for the increasingly uncertain environment in which it will have to operate. In that vein, the incoming president will have to be prepared to emulate previous actions, providing certainty when it cannot be found elsewhere.In addition, the authors propose methods by which the ECB can bolster the euro-area architecture while continuing to fulfil its role in promoting financial stability.For further reading on this topic, we recommend a recent blog post by Grégory Claeys and Tanja Linta on the evolution of the ECB governing council's monetary-policy decision-making process.

The next president of the ECB, much like his predecessors, will have the difficult task of dealing with the balance between speaking with one voice and making timely, optimal decisions for the euro area as a whole. In this episode of ‘The Sound of Economics’, Bruegel deputy director Maria Demertzis speaks with Bruegel research fellow Grégory Claeys about the evolution of decision-making of the previous three governors and the differences in the effects of interest rates. Grégory Claeys and Tanja Linta have published a blog post creating a database to look back and examine precisely how decisions have been taken since the ECB was created. 

Cohesion policy remains a contentious topic in the EU, central as it is to the matter of convergence between regions. The need to share economic growth throughout the bloc is particularly acute in the wake of notable electoral advances from several more populist political parties in Europe in recent years.Bruegel senior fellow Zsolt Darvas explains how his recent study, co-written with Jan Mazza and Catarina Midões, adopts a new methodology with the aim of avoiding the complicating factors that have underpinned the greatly varied results of many previous assessments of cohesion-policy effectiveness. He explains further how the EU might refine its implementation of cohesion policy, and looks ahead to what might be the biggest obstacles to improvement.For further reading, we recommend the Bruegel Policy Contribution at the centre of this Deep Focus episode, ‘How to improve European Union cohesion policy for the next decade’.

The next presidents of the European Commission, Council and Parliament will inherit a relatively healthy European economy, but will face three formidable challenges in the next five years. First, the incoming presidents must define Europe’s place in an increasingly bipolar world driven by a geostrategic rivalry between the United States and China. Second, global warming is a reality and temperatures appear to be rising faster than forecast. Third, the three presidents need to manage the economy and EU cohesion. In this episode of ‘The Sound of Economics’, Bruegel director Guntram Wolff speaks with Bruegel deputy director Maria Demertzis about the specific measures that the new incumbents should take to tackle these challenges. Together with senior fellow André Sapir, the two discussants have co-written Bruegel’s memo to the three new presidents, elaborating on the policy priorities for the next institutional cycle.

In this episode of 'The Sound of Economics', Bruegel senior fellow Georg Zachmann continues the Backstage series with an interview with Massimo Tavoni, professor at the Politecnico di Milano and director of EIEE.The discussion point is climate modelling - specifically its use and the necessity of complexity in some of its formulations.Some climate models are very straightforward, and this allows for the building of a solid base. But interaction between complex systems requires consideration of a multitude of factors, not all of which are easily measurable.Modelling can be productive as a means of plotting a route to a policy goal such as the Paris Agreement. And the outcomes are best viewed as producing only one of many possible routes that could be taken.These models are increasingly relevant for numerous sectors, all beginning to factor in not only climate change but climate-change policy.If you are interested in more on this topic, we recommend the Bruegel Blueprint co-written by Georg Zachmann with Grégory Caleys and Gustav Fredriksson on the distributional effects of climate policies.

The European Union's next framework programme for innovation and research - 'FP9', better known as Horizon Europe - will run from 2021 to 2027. With the rise of China as an increasingly direct competitor with the EU and the US, this will be a vital period.   Bruegel senior fellow Reinhilde Veugelers, together with Michael Baltensperger, has produced an analysis for the European Parliament's Committee on Industry, Research and Energy. The research paper, on which Reinhilde elaborates in this episode of the Deep Focus podcast, looks at what needs to be prioritised in the next framework programme in order to maintain and improve Europe's position as a leader in this increasingly competitive field.   For further reading we recommend the paper in question, 'Europe – the global centre for excellent research', as well as Reinhilde Veugeler's previous Bruegel Policy Contribution, 'Are European firms falling behind in the global corporate research race?'

The keyword in Ukraine right now is ‘uncertainty’, as the country prepares to elect a new parliament in July only a few months after electing a new president. Not only will the new government have a role in stabilising and growing the economy following the 2014-15 economic crisis, but they will face the challenge of a large debt repayment during their term while dealing with an aggressive Russia. In a political climate that is known for being corrupt and not respecting the rule of law, there are opportunities to change the country beyond economic policy.   In this episode of the Backstage podcast series, Giuseppe Porcaro, head of communications and events at Bruegel, hosts non-resident fellow Marek Dabrowski and Hlib Vyshlinsky, executive director at the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES) to discuss the opportunities for the new government and the best recipe of reforms.  For further reading, we recommend this blog post written by Marek Dabrowski about Ukraine’s struggle for reform, as well as this policy contribution on Ukraine’s unfinished reform agenda. 

An analysis of the results of the most recent European elections reveals what Bruegel director Guntram Wolff classifies as a generally positive trend in electoral participation across the EU, with an overall increase of 7% in voter turnout since the last elections in 2014. Additionally, populist parties in the European Parliament seem to have been prevented from gaining ground.However, election results in some EU member states were not as pro-EU at the national level. In this podcast, Guntram Wolff welcomes Ferdinando Giugliano from Bloomberg and Krzysztof Blusz from WiseEuropa to discuss the results in each guest's home countries - Italy and Poland, respectively - and how the nationalist trends in each state might play a role in politics in the new European Parliament and European Commission.If you are interested in Bruegel's work concerning the European elections, we recommend our blog post: ‘Spitzenkandidaten visions for the future of Europe’s economy’, which features the candidates for the next president of the European Commission. You can also visit the main page for our Spitzenkandidaten series, to review the content in full.

Giuseppe Porcaro hosts Bruegel director Guntram Wolff and visiting fellow Rebecca Christie to reflect on the key policy positions taken by the candidates for the European Commission presidency, ahead of May's elections.European elections are fast approaching. With them comes not just a visit to the polls, but the beginning of a sequence involving the European Parliament and the Council that will eventually decide who becomes the next president of the Commission. The Spitzenkandidaten process sees each of the parties put forward their nominated candidate - or candidates - one of whom should eventually assume the presidency, if the various criteria can be met.Looking back upon Bruegel's recent six-part series of events, held in partnership with the Financial Times, the discussants assess the candidates' views on Europe's future industrial policy path, the EU's stance on the growing trade dispute between the US and China, as well as the most vital and realistic euro-area reforms for the next five years. The debate also considers how each of the candidates might be positioning themselves and their parties in the complex process of selecting a new president.Giuseppe Porcaro leads the review with Bruegel visiting fellow Rebecca Christie and director Guntram Wolff, in this special edition of the Backstage series.If you would like to review the series in more depth, we recommend our blog post: ‘Spitzenkandidaten visions for the future of Europe’s economy’, which contains extracts and video clips from the events. You can also visit the main page for our Spitzenkandidaten series, to review the content in full.