The Sound of Economics

The economy of the euro area is forecast to contract by 8.7% in 2020 but grow by 6.1% in 2021. The drop in GDP in 2009, the worst year of the financial crisis, was just over 5%. There is no doubt that the drop we face today is much more significant, although it is expected to be short-lived with a sharp bounce back. However, all EU countries are currently going through a second COVID-19 wave exponentially worse than the first in terms of number of infections, albeit with fewer deaths (so far). Who knows what the real hit to the economy will be, and indeed how long it will be before we can resume normality?In this episode of the Sound of Economics, Giuseppe Porcaro is joined by Bruegel deputy director Maria Demertzis, and Nicola Viegi, Professor of Monetary Economics at the University of Pretoria, who is based in South Africa. They will explore the theme of uncertainty, highlighted by the pandemic, and how to plan policy interventions, especially monetary policy, in this climate of uncertainty.Maria Demertzis and Marta Domínguez-Jiménez, Bruegel research analyst have recently published a paper for the European Parliament on the topic, looking at the challenges faced by the European Central Bank: ‘Monetary policy in the time of COVID-19, or how uncertainty is here to stay’: https://www.bruegel.org/2020/11/monetary-policy-in-the-time-of-covid-19-or-how-uncertainty-is-here-to-stay/

On November 15 2020, the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), creating the world’s largest free-trade bloc in terms of gross domestic product. Bruegel fellows from around the world - Uri Dadush, based in Washington DC; Alicia Garcia-Herrero based in Hong Kong and Suman Bery based in India, bring their knowledge and geopolitical expertise to a heated discussion on this deal, hosted by director Guntram Wolff. What is the RCEP really about? Who will benefit? Why did India withdraw from negotiations on the deal? What implications will it have for Europe and the United States? And more importantly, what should they do?

Following Biden's victory in the US presidential election, what will the transatlantic relationship look like? Would it be a big relief, or nothing much will change? And will we see a shift from ‘America first’ to ‘buy American’? This week Bruegel director Guntram Wolff is joined by Esther de Lange MEP, Vice Chair of the European People's Party Group, to talk us through what this all means for Europe, and more importantly for its place in the world. What next for European strategic autonomy? How will this affect climate policies? How can EU level the playing field while not getting squeezed by the US and China?With Mrs de Lange’s experience within the Delegation for relations with the People's Republic of China, we also discuss that, as the US is trying to decouple economically with China, what would be the right strategy for Europe?

Taxation is one of the few areas of financial policy which the general public has great interest in, as it affects their everyday life directly. But when we talk about it on a European level, it has much to do with tax distortion and competition in the single market.In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Bruegel director Guntram Wolff is joined by Sven Giegold MEP from the European Green Party. Giegold envisions a European common tax space, where minimum tax rates will be applied on a European level. They also discuss tax reporting regulations for large corporations, VAT reform, and how the Commission, European Financial Intelligence Unit and potentially a European financial police force can target money laundering and financial crime.

Born and bred in the United States, Bruegel scholars Rebecca Christie and J. Scott Marcus are joined by director Guntram Wolff, on a special edition of The Sound of Economics, to talk about the upcoming US election, the implications it will have for American and European Economic policies, as well as the impact on future transatlantic relations.Rebecca and Scott will walk us through the most crucial domestic topics, from voter suppression to shrinking republican demographic, from the covid-19 pandemic to US healthcare system. On international issues, they look at the approaches the two administrations will likely take on climate, trade, data privacy, as well as financial regulations. While a Biden presidency might be the hope to reinitiate sensible discussions and restore alliance and partnerships, a Trump administration will very much likely continue its path on isolationism.Find out more from Bruegel scholars for the upcoming US election:The future of EU-US trade relations after the US electionWhat should Europe expect from American trade policy after the election? Trump’s International Economic Legacy

In this episode of The Sound of Economics, we invite Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan to talk about their most recent book: 'The Great Demographic Reversal’. They argue that trends in demography and globalisation, especially the stunning rise of China combining both, have greatly weakened labour bargaining power and led to subsequent disinflation, inequality and falling interest rates. But just as these demographic and globalisation trends are now reversing, labour bargaining power will rise again, bringing with it more inflation, less inequality and rising interest rates. The coronavirus pandemic will only accelerate this reversal.Bruegel scholars Maria Demertzis and Guntram Wolff join the authors for a conversation on ageing societies, waning inequality, as well as an inflation revival.

On 15-16 October the European Council will take stock of the implementation of the withdrawal agreement and review the state of the negotiations on the future EU-UK partnership. Leaders will discuss preparatory work for all scenarios after 1 January 2021. The timetable is very tight, with October seen as the last deadline for reaching an agreement that could then be ratified in time for entry into force by the end of the current transition period. In this live recording session of The Sound of Economics, Bruegel’s scholars took a step back and provided the background, as well as outline the key issues at stake necessary to follow the discussions at the Council and understand the ongoing negotiations. We also engaged in an informed debate with the audience on the post-Brexit scenarios.  The podcast host, Giuseppe Porcaro, was joined by Maria Demertzis, André Sapir, and Guntram Wolff. To read more about Bruegel's research on Brexit, please check: https://www.bruegel.org/tag/brexit/.

The European Union recovery fund could greatly increase the stability of the bloc and its monetary union. But the fund needs clearer objectives, sustainable growth criteria and close monitoring so that spending achieves its goals and is free of corruption. In finalising the fund, the EU should take the time to design a strong governance mechanism. In this episode, Guntram Wolff, director of Bruegel, is joined by MEP Luis Garicano, vice president of Renew Europe, who is also an economist and was heavily involved in the discussion on Next Generation EU, the new recovery instrument that the EU proposed for the Recovery and Resilience Facility. On this topic, they discuss the key concerns on how to ensure EU-borrowed money will be well-spent by the member states. MEP Garicano shares his insights from the Parliament of where this debate currently stands. Read the Opinion of Guntram wolff on the topic:  https://www.bruegel.org/2020/09/without-good-governance-the-eu-borrowing-mechanism-to-boost-the-recovery-could-fail/

In this episode, we propose a full lecture about the future of globalisation by Dani Rodrik, Professor of International Political Economy, at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, of Harvard University.  Rodrik argues that the model of hyper globalization we have been pursuing is unsustainable and that we have an opportunity to embark on a sounder, healthier globalisation. And he outlines his views on what such a globalisation might look like.The Lecture took place during the Bruegel Annual Meetings and it was followed by a lively discussion between Dani Rodrik and André Sapir, who is a Senior Fellow at Bruegel, which we have recorded and included in this podcast. 

As we move away from fossil fuels and toward clean energy solutions, the complexity of the global energy system has increased. With his new book published by Cambridge University Press, Global Energy Fundamentals, Simone Tagliapietra cuts through this complexity with a multidisciplinary perspective of the system, which encompasses economics, geopolitics, and basic technology.  In this episode of The Sound of Economics Guntram Wolff, director of Bruegel, discusses with the author the current status and future prospects of the global energy system.