The Sound of Economics

Exploring the implications of geopolitical conflicts like the Israel-Hamas war on global energy and financial markets. Discussing the impact on energy markets, EU's response to military conflicts, and managing financial stability amidst geopolitical tensions.

The 15 October Polish elections showed that the opposition leader Donald Tusk, former European Council president and a former Polish prime minister, has a decent chance of forming a new coalition government to take over from the right-wing Law and Justice Party that has been in power since 2015. In this episode of The Sound of Economics, recorded 20 Oct., our podcast host Rebecca Christie sits down with Non-resident fellow Marek Dabrowski, a former deputy finance minister during Poland’s transition away from communism, and visiting fellow Paweł Karbownik, who has been an adviser to Tusk in Brussels and during the campaign. Together they unpack how the elections turned out and what might happen next: what political and economic challenges the new government will be facing, the progress it might have in the standoff over the EU budget. They also discuss how Poland will play a more important role in policymaking as the EU looks toward new rounds of enlargement in coming years.

China's growth model, marked by excessive investment and a high savings rate, has led to the accumulation of local government debt and a skewed balance between consumption and investment. In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Giuseppe Porcaro and Alicia García-Herrero explore this debt burden with Michael Pettis, exposing the structural problem in China’s growth model which over-relies on investment. This episode is part of the ZhōngHuá Mundus series of The Sound of Economics. ZhōngHuá Mundus is a newsletter by Bruegel, bringing you monthly analysis of China in the world, as seen from Europe. Sign up now to receive it in your mailbox!

There is a huge skill mismatch and skills shortages in the EU labour market. In 2022, despite the all-time high employment rate (74.6%), we are still seeing the highest job vacancy rate of 2.9%, which more than doubled compared to 2012 (1.3%).In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Giuseppe Porcaro discusses the importance of skills-based hiring with Duygu Güner and Mona Mourshed. How can this practice help remove the barriers between workers and the job market and how can it further assist digital transformation in our economy? They also discuss how to motivate workers as well as employers to adopt this new system.This is part of a special Skills series of The Sound of Economics, where we discuss how we can utilise upskilling and reskilling initiatives to protect vulnerable groups of the workforce, how to build a resilient workforce and create a better functioning EU labour market. Relevant publications:Launching a Tech Hiring Revolution, Report by GenerationGotti, G., T. Schraepen and D. Güner (2023) ‘Technology Adoption dashboard’, Bruegel DatasetsThe Midcareer Opportunity: Meeting the Challenges of an Ageing Workforce, Report by GenerationThis podcast was produced within the project “Future of Work and Inclusive Growth in Europe“, with the financial support of the Mastercard Center for Inclusive Growth.

James Bridle, author of 'Ways of Being: Animals, Plants, Machines: The Search for a Planetary Intelligence,' discusses the effects of AI and new technologies on society, politics, and everyday life. They explore the relationship humans have with other beings, the role of art in bridging different fields, and the importance of diverse thinking and incorporating machines and other species in human assemblies.

The EU has been using trade policy to export its standards on competition policy, environmental protection and human rights among other policy areas, which has famously become known as ‘The Brussels Effect’. But this could eventually get in the way of trade deal negotiations. For example, the EU-Mercosur Trade Agreement is bogged down by Amazon deforestation concerns since 2019. But can the EU afford to prolong the trade deal negotiations with Latin America countries, given Latin America’s increasingly important role in global economics, from the reconfiguration of the global supply chains to being a key component for critical raw materials, which is a strategic emerging consumer’s market and an indispensable natural resource for the planet?In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Giuseppe Porcaro invites Alan Beattie, Alicia García-Herrero and David Kleimann to discuss the state of play of EU-LATAM trade relations and how the EU should proceed to showcase its commitment to trade openness and economic engagement.

At the start of the Covid-19 crisis, the European Commission suspended the fiscal rules that applied to member states to allow countries to use fiscal policy domestically to deal with health emergency. This suspension was further extended when Russia invaded Ukraine and cause a great energy crisis in the European Union.The suspension is now meant to be lifted in 2024 when the rules will come back into full operation. In this three-year period, the European Commission has also tried to update and modernise the fiscal framework in a proposal they put forward in April 2023. In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Maria Demertzis invites Jeromin Zettelmeyer and Zsolt Darvas to evaluate this proposal. As they present in a recent paper, in this framework, medium-term fiscal adjustment requirements would be determined by country-by-country debt sustainability analysis (DSA), the 3 percent deficit ceiling and simple rules requiring minimum deficit and debt adjustments (‘safeguards’). These elements are controversial, with some EU countries (and us) preferring a DSA-based approach, while others prefer to stick to simple rules.  Relevant publications Darvas, Z., L. Welslau and J. Zettelmeyer (2023) ‘A quantitative evaluation of the European Commission´s fiscal governance proposal’, Working Paper 16/2023, Bruegel The economic governance review and its impact on monetary-fiscal coordination, Zsolt Darvas, Jeromin Zettelmeyer, In-Depth analysis, European Parliament

On 13 September 2023, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, delivered this year’s State of the Union address before the European Parliament. This is the last address of her current mandate. In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Giuseppe Porcaro hosts André Sapir, Simone Tagliapietra and Jeromin Zettelmeyer to evaluate von der Leyen’s address regarding the European Green Deal, industrial policy, economic security, Ukraine and more.

European banking supervision has developed and matured by moving from being predominantly rules-based and heavily codified, to becoming more risk-focused and adaptable to rapidly changing economic circumstances. Backstage at the Bruegel Annual Meetings 2023, Giuseppe Porcaro and Nicolas Véron speak with Sharon Donnery, Deputy Governor, Central Bank of Ireland, to discuss the evolution of European banking supervision, the increasingly central role of risk assessment, as well as the prospects for the near future.

This podcast episode discusses the recent expansion of the BRICS group and its implications on the global economic and geopolitical landscape. Topics covered include China's efforts to reshape the group, the proposal to reform the G7, the shift in China's objectives, the potential of digital currencies, and the changing composition of BRICS.