C.O.B. Tuesday

Today we welcomed back our good friend Tisha Schuller, Founder and CEO of Adamantine Energy. Tisha first appeared on COBT in March of 2021 and we're thrilled to visit with her just a few weeks after she's published her latest book, "Real Decarbonization: How Oil and Gas Companies Are Seizing the Low-Carbon Future." Tisha is based out of Denver and was previously the President and CEO of the Colorado Oil & Gas Association before founding Adamantine Energy, where she and her team provide thought leadership to energy businesses. We had lots of fun digging into the core themes of the book! In our conversation, Tisha first shares the inspiration behind writing "Real Decarbonization" including the disconnect between public perceptions around decarbonization and reality. We then dive into the importance of understanding the opposing community's perspective and the shift to focus on building things rather than opposing them, Tisha's call for action to create "unconventional engagements," navigating greenwashing, how CEOs are driving decarbonization, the four strategic decarbonization paths as described in Tisha's book, how the IRA has affected traditional paradigms of opposing conservatives and liberals, personal evolution and shifting industry pride, differences in decarbonization goals for public and private companies, the definition of decarbonized, and much more. We had a hard time wrapping the discussion and ended with Tisha's view for the energy world in ten years. It was a whopper of a conversation! The Veriten crew started the show: Mike Bradley focused on the move/volatility in crude oil markets as well as the handful of dynamics (China lockdowns, upcoming OPEC Meeting & EU Russian Price-Caps) that are driving volatility and have plunged Brent and WTI crude oil time spreads into contango. He also noted the 12-month WTI crude oil strip and energy equities have been decoupling over the past few months due to investor's comfort with higher future "normalized" prices, continued significant return OF capital and strict capex discipline even in the midst of high commodity prices. Colin Fenton trained the spotlight on precious metals. Advances in silver and gold prices are suddenly building momentum, as investors flee crypto markets and look nervously at USD weakness and other signs that central bankers will not have the stomach to squash inflation expectations. Mar-23 CMX silver ($21.41 per troy ounce) has gained 22% since its recent low in early September, and Feb-23 CMX gold ($1762 per troy oz) is now priced about 8% higher than at its recent low on November 3, 2022. Each price is far below its all-time high in either nominal or real terms.Thanks to you all for your friendship and support!

Thanksgiving is such an awesome holiday... great food, family, relaxation. It's got it all! One thing we have been struck by... and I think it was most striking during COVID, is that the energy world NEVER STOPS and that's what makes all of this possible. Because energy people are out there working on this day, for the third year in a row we have an episode that introduces you to them. As you will hear, today's show features Brock Schmidt from North Dakota, Brad Okland from Fort Worth, and Nick Heddings from Williamsport PA. These three guys and their teams are working today! Not to ruin the surprise, but towards the end the guys also reveal their favorite Thanksgiving dish. Great stuff!A few special thank yous are in order:- To all of you for your support- To the Caterpillar team for helping us find Brock, Brad and Nick and letting them join us on the show- To energy workers everywhere, especially today, who are out there making it happen for all of us!- To the fun people at Schatz. During the show, Brock says there is a truck stop in North Dakota which has some awesome pies and such. Well, we found them and now you know too! I would be remiss if I didn't also thank the fun and growing team at Veriten. You are a wonderful bunch and make coming to work fun every day!Happy Thanksgiving to you all!

For this week's session, we were thrilled to welcome back  Rob West. Rob is the lead analyst at his own firm, Thunder Said Energy. Rob had a career in research at Redburn and Sanford C. Bernstein before leaving to start Thunder Said in 2019 and first joined us for COBT on January 4, 2022. He has immersed himself in the technology details of the energy transition and brings a unique "how are we going to accomplish all of this" perspective to all of his analysis. Even though there are immense challenges, and we have dug ourselves in a hole in many ways, hang in there as you will hear Rob's optimism in particular towards the end of the discussion. Rob joined us today from his home in Tallinn, Estonia. In our conversation, we pull from Rob some thoughts on the Russia-Ukraine war and delve into the sentiment in Eastern Europe and the Baltics about Russia's aggression. Rob recently wrote a research piece entitled "Energy Shortage: Fear in a Handful of Dust?" At the heart of the paper is that the road to a better world, including a successful transformation of our energy system, goes through having energy "surplus" and not through energy "shortage." Quite the contrary, he points out the dangers of energy shortage in a number of areas including higher food prices, the negative climate effects of more wood use, diminished economic prosperity, reduced security, and the instability of democracies during periods like the one we are in. Rob reminds us of the serious bottlenecks to be solved, the second law of thermodynamics (and the implications for energy loss), that we need energy to build new energy systems, and the importance of innovation. In total, Rob points to ten key reasons why the world needs energy surplus, and why such surplus not only helps us achieve our environmental goals, but also helps us avoid a world that would ultimately be more dangerous and also more painful, especially for those who have less. To kick us off, Mike Bradley took a look back at what oil and gas prices looked like in January of 2022 when Rob last joined us and shared current bond, commodity, and equity performance. He noted that the last few days of energy equity volatility was predominately related to the direction OPEC might pursue at its December meeting and wrapped up his discussion by laying out both the failure and success coming out of COP 27. Colin Fenton noted the European Union has put a number on its proposed price cap for natural gas: €275 per MWh, as measured by the TTF month-ahead price in the Netherlands. The proposed cap would begin on January 1, 2023, last for one year, and activate only in the event of emergency conditions locally, as determined by the spread between spot prices in Europe and a basket of spot LNG prices from around the world. EU Member States would need to approve the proposal before it could take effect. Veriten's head of nuclear research and strategy, Brett Rampal, also joined the team today. As we pause and reflect about Thanksgiving, we want to wish you all the best and reiterate how grateful we are for your friendship. Be on the lookout for a special message on Thanksgiving Day!  Thank you again to Rob for joining and thanks to you all! 

We are excited to share today's episode featuring Joseph Sigelman, Chairman and CEO of Atlantic, Gulf & Pacific Company (AG&P). Joe and his team focus on downstream LNG import and distribution, engineering and construction across Southeast Asia, stretching from India to the Philippines. He joined us from Jakarta and we were thrilled to visit with him about everything he and his company have been seeing during his eleven plus years at AG&P. As you will hear, the "on the ground, energy transition trends" in this vital part of the world are fascinating. In our conversation, Joe kicked us off with key background details on the company and their main goal to bring clean energy to developing markets along with jobs and industrial growth. We then touch on the company's build-out process, their experience in India, the company's team and size, their effects on the health and welfare of local communities, the acceleration of the business from 2021 to today, future markets, developing infrastructure with regulatory frameworks in different countries, and much more. In one of the more compelling moments, we discuss with Joe "what ESG is really all about" and why bringing more natural gas to the developing world isn't more commonly part of that discussion. Joe is on the frontline of a changing and growing world where "energy transition" can have a more profound meaning - in this instance, going from polluting and not enough to clean and reliable. We hope you enjoy the discussion with Joe as much as we did. In our upfront discussion, Mike Bradley shared bond, commodity and equity performance from the past week noting that lower than expected CPI and PPI prints pushed bond yields lower and equities higher. He also discussed the many macro factors that will influence crude oil prices into year end and by highlighted several topical events including unconfirmed reports that Russian missiles had crossed into Poland, the potential fallout from a new divided Congress, the FTX crypto bankruptcy web, and the lack of real substance coming from the COP 27 conference. His slide from today's session is available linked here. Colin Fenton flagged a notable public disclosure from a just-completed secret space mission. This past weekend, the U.S. X37B spaceplane landed after a record 908 days in orbit. While aloft, it conducted experiments for the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, in which unimpeded solar energy was collected in space, converted into microwaves, and transmitted to ground receivers. Colin also noted the human population has crossed the 8-billion-person threshold for the first time in history, and he shared some observations about how gold is catching a strong bid following the FTX debacle in the crypto space. 

Today we had a fantastic guest join us, Ted Nordhaus. Ted is the Founder and Executive Director of The Breakthrough Institute and a co-author of " An Ecomodernist Manifesto" as well as " The Death of Environmentalism." Ted has spent his career advocating for technical solutions to environmental problems and is a thought leader on energy, the environment, and global climate. We covered a lot of territory in our time together and were thrilled to visit with him! The Breakthrough Institute is a global research center that seeks innovative technological solutions to environmental and human development challenges. We enjoyed learning more about their areas of impact and in our discussion we also touched on Ted's observations on the current state of the environmental world, his recent article in Foreign Policy, the issues with denying developing countries resources and infrastructure to use fossil fuels, Ted's very talented family and its legacy in the environmental world, the geopolitical implications of which countries are funding developing nation's energy growth, nuclear as a prime example of technology that has both scale and impact, the deregulatory movement needed to fix seventies era environmental laws that are still in place, and much more. We could have continued for much longer and greatly appreciate Ted for joining. In our upfront discussion,  Mike Bradley shared bond, commodity and equity performance from the past week noting the widest inversion of two and ten-year US government bond yields since 2000, natural gas pricing's tie to demand over the next few weeks, midterm elections, and COP 27.  Colin Fenton zoned in on oil and gas prices, specifically the difference in probability for NYMEX and WTI prices over the next few weeks compared to 2023. We also had Veriten's nuclear champion  Brett Rampal join for today's session. We hope you will enjoy the session as much as we did. Thanks to you all! 

For this week's COBT, we had the pleasure of hosting Sasha Mackler, Executive Director of the Energy Program at the Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC). The BPC is a Washington, DC-based think tank that prioritizes one thing above all else: GETTING THINGS DONE. That's a mission we can all stand behind. The team at BPC work on what they've defined as critical policy issues for the US including health, immigration, and infrastructure to name a few, by bringing together all relevant stakeholders and finding areas of alignment for action. We were connected with Sasha a few weeks ago and think you will appreciate his background and perspective. We had a fantastic session! Sasha first provides key background on the BPC including their core mission, set of policy issues, and history. The Energy Program is the longest standing policy area the BPC has worked on and currently has ten staff members dedicated to the effort. In our conversation we also cover the necessity for the US to be well positioned in energy technology, why 2050 and 2030 are both important targets, where Sasha sees the possibility for progress after the midterms, Sasha's advice to COP 27 delegates including a reminder that the public sector cannot drive the energy transition alone, how to find a way to bring the oil and gas industry more fully into the policy conversation, the importance of educating the public on energy issues, and more. We wrap with Sasha's view of the world in the next ten years. Mike Bradley kicked us off with an update on commodity and equity markets, noting key themes from earnings and oil majors outperformance this quarter. He also flagged a few key events including the potential for windfall profits tax on oil companies and the release of two recent reports, OPEC World Oil Outlook 2045 and IEA World Energy Outlook. Colin Fenton expanded on the OPEC and IEA reports with a side-by-side look at both. You will hear him reference the interesting contrast of producers talking about consumers (the OPEC report) and conversely consumers talking about producers (the IEA report). Brett Rampal also joined today's session and added his power/electricity perspective to the discussion. Thank you, as always, for your support and friendship! 

Today we had the pleasure of connecting with NJ Ayuk for an Africa-focused energy discussion. NJ is the founder and CEO of Centurion Law Group, a Johannesburg-based energy-focused law firm, and the author of "Billions at Play: The Future of African Energy and Doing Deals." In this capacity, he is among the leading energy dealmakers on the African continent. He is also the Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber, a non-profit dedicated to promoting the continent's full potential across all energy verticals. We are always interested in learning more about energy development in the developing world and can't thank NJ enough for sharing his time, expertise, and passion, based on the unique mix of his commercial and philanthropic endeavors.  Our discussion is timely: NJ has just returned from the African Energy Week conference in Cape Town. In our conversation with NJ, we cover the intelligence he gathered at that event and the insights he took away from it. We then discuss his observations on commercial investment and “bankable projects” in Africa, and his views on energy trends over the next 3 to 5 years. He provides his pregame for COP 27 in Egypt and explains why he expects to see a “united Africa” negotiating position in favor of hydrocarbons that may surprise some observers. We somehow found the time to talk about the potential for pan-African integration of supply chains for power generation and home cooking fuels (piped gas long run vs. cannister LPG short run), the critical need for expanding education resources in Africa and how electricity advances that important social good, and NJ’s vision for energy in Africa ten years from now. In his vision of the future, NJ remarks that he hopes more people will realize that “climate change and energy poverty are two sides of the same coin." It struck us as a profound comment we should all be considering.  Mike Bradley started us off with a discussion of global markets and touched on crude oil, earnings, the next Fed rate hike, and implications of the latest power games at the highest political levels in China. Colin Fenton connected the dots on why Waha Hub gas basis prices in the United States dropped below zero today because of events in Europe and explained why "100% natural gas storage utilization" means something entirely different in France than in the United Kingdom, with important implications on why gas storage may soon not be "at 94%" in the EU or Waha basis at "subzero prices."  We hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we did! Our best to you all. 

We have had a really interesting two days in our nation's capital. With the help of Anne Bradbury (CEO) and Liz Bowman (Vice President, Communications) of the  American Exploration & Production Council (AXPC), we spent time in Washington DC on Monday and Tuesday talking to think tanks, energy specialists, Congressional and Senate staff, and other energy players here, trying to get a feel for the current sentiment and future direction around energy. We capped off the experience with a sit-down with Anne at AXPC's headquarters and as you will hear, we touched on many aspects of where things may be headed in the discussion.  Our key observations are that first and foremost, the election is hanging over the city, along with the backdrop of war and energy scarcity in Europe, the potential for recession, the ongoing climate debates, the aftermath of the IRA legislation, and in particular the retail price of gasoline. Anne is a longtime Washington veteran and expert and assumed the reigns at AXPC a little over two and a half years ago. Since then, she has seen COVID, the big climate push, and now the results from various policies (the good, the bad and ugly) and of course an unexpected and dangerous war. Through it all, Anne has continued to grow the membership and reputation of AXPC and has also been a strong voice for increasing energy education. Anne's perspective and overall "Washington-wisdom" was wonderful to get and we hope you enjoy the discussion as much as we did. Just an hour or so after we finished the discussion, the White House put out an energy press release.  The home team kicked us off today:  Mike Bradley hit on bond, commodity and equity performance from the past week, flagging recent decreases in oil and natural gas prices, and highlighted key events including oil service earnings kicking off this week.  Colin Fenton added his global market perspective and shared an important operational update from Rio Tinto. He also helped frame our discussion by sharing data on the number of crude oil barrels in-transit on the water (more than 1.1 billion barrels).We want to thank Anne and the AXPC team for a fantastic visit. For you COBT history buffs, Anne was one of our first guests over two years ago.  We are leaving Washington heading back to Houston with optimism for better policy-making days ahead. There are many smart people on both sides of the aisle increasingly determined to find better answers to the challenges of energy cost, reliability, innovation, climate, and security. Thanks, as always, for all you do! 

For today's COBT, we had the pleasure of sitting down with Liberty Energy CEO Chris Wright. Chris is a fascinating energy mind - his background includes MIT and UC Berkeley mechanical and electrical engineering degrees as well as a broad-based life-long passion for all forms of energy. He was an early shale pioneer and today is Chairman and CEO of Liberty. Chris also dedicates a significant amount of his time talking to policymakers globally about what he feels are the choices society should be making in energy. For the second year, Chris has helped drive the Liberty ESG report to be not just a report on Liberty but more broadly an analysis of energy ESG globally. It's absolutely worth your time and very digestible.  As you will hear, Chris lays out the three global challenges that he sees for energy and environmental policies including solving energy poverty globally (replacing wood and dung with clean cooking fuels could save 2 to 3 million people from death annually), pushing towards reliable and affordable energy systems with minimal environmental impact, and addressing climate change thoughtfully. As we discuss these objectives, you will hear us touch on a broad range of issues and factors. When discussing what the world of energy looks like in ten years, Chris had a really great and unique answer (and goal): "net zero poverty by 2050." It was a stimulating and exciting session with Chris today and we can't thank him enough for joining us.In our upfront discussion,  Mike Bradley summed up bond, commodity and equity performance from the past week and the loud reactions to the recent OPEC+ meeting. Colin Fenton highlighted an important update from the London Metals Exchange concerning Russian metal exports and shared his takeaways from Annie Proulx's new book, " Fen, Bog and Swamp."  Ryan Zorn, Veriten's Senior Contributor, also joined and asked for Chris’s “energy discussion forecast” beyond the elections. Thanks to you all. We hope you enjoy as much as we did! 

Today it was our pleasure to host James West, Senior Managing Director and Partner at Evercore ISI. James heads Evercore's oil service, equipment and drilling research team as well as the sustainable technologies and clean energy team and has an extensive research career covering the OFS sector. As you will hear, we had a hard time wrapping up the discussion as the scope of what James sees, analyzes and discusses daily covers a broad range within energy, across the globe, and across a broad swath of investor types. It was a fantastic discussion. In our conversation today, we touch on James's observations gained from covering traditional/classic energy as well as the clean energy space, his takeaways from recent investor meetings in Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and Italy, his latest insights on the European energy and security crisis and how it may play out, the return of investors to oil and gas, climate investors and their mandates, the revenge of the S in ESG, the meaning of just transition, offshore's role in supply and demand in the coming years, the Evercore energy research group's culture, scope, and overall organization, helpful and harmful energy policies, the appropriate size for the US SPR, and much more. We wrap with James's thoughts on the energy world ten years from now. We had great fun talking with James and hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we did. For the Veriten team's upfront discussion, Mike Bradley highlighted bond, commodity and equity performance, noting rising natural gas production and potential outcomes from the upcoming OPEC meeting. Colin Fenton continued the commodity theme with a look at the market's reactions to a potential cut in production and also shared optimistic observations from recent meetings in Midland. In today's discussion and here in this lead-in, we also want to acknowledge the recent passing of legendary energy industry veteran Steve Chazen and offer our deepest condolences to his family. Steve touched so many of our lives and he and his tremendous contributions will not be forgotten.