C.O.B. Tuesday

David Bat, president of Kimberlite Research with 30+ years in upstream and oilfield research, explains Kimberlite’s 20,000-hour interview model and how AI helps surface insights. He discusses 2026 activity shifts toward international growth, regional hotspots like Brazil and Norway, technology driving huge efficiency gains, and market structure contrasts between concentrated offshore players and fragmented North America.

Today we had the exciting opportunity to host Bill Anderson, Senior Managing Director at Evercore and Global Head of the firm’s Activism/Raid Defense team and Strategic M&A Advisory practice. Bill is a pioneer in activism defense and has advised more than 500 companies facing activists or strategic raids, including many of the largest proxy fights and defense situations of the past two decades. Prior to joining Evercore in 2016, Bill spent more than 15 years at Goldman Sachs as an M&A partner and leader of its defense team. Earlier in his career, he was an M&A attorney at Simpson Thatcher & Bartlett, clerked on the Second Circuit of the U.S. Court of Appeals, worked as a CPA at Coopers & Lybrand, and served as a Captain in the U.S. Army Reserves. It was our pleasure to hear Bill’s perspectives on the latest M&A activity, activism and hostile preparedness, board composition and alignment, and the evolving dynamics between companies, shareholders, and capital markets. In our conversation, we explore Bill’s career path from classic M&A work into defense and special committees as markets changed, and how activism became a major driver of M&A. Bill shares his top takeaways from 2025 activity, noting the wide range of deal types and attributing the acceleration in deal flow to greater antitrust optimism, liquid financing, and strong buyer stock performance. We discuss why activism has become a core risk-management issue for public companies, how activists can build positions via derivatives and broker-dealer exposure with limited disclosure (and why 13F filings can be an important early-warning signal), and how shareholder bases have evolved with index funds now a dominant ownership block alongside the continued influence of ISS and Glass Lewis. We cover the difficulty of mobilizing retail votes and related regulatory/state-law considerations, the deal approval environment under Trump versus Biden (including CFIUS as a wildcard), why companies are more careful describing synergies, the impact of universal proxy, and the importance of diversity, tenure, and sector expertise in board refreshment. We touch on the drivers of positive acquirer stock reactions, how companies communicate value at deal announcement, activist dynamics in M&A and when activism becomes contentious, the importance of board alignment and cohesion, increased spin-off activity, and much more. We ended by asking Bill for his thoughts on how companies can attract long-only capital. Throughout the discussion, we reference several elements of Evercore’s “2025 Year in Review Report.” It was a fascinating discussion and we appreciate Bill for sharing his time and insights. Mike Bradley kicked us off by noting that the 10-year U.S. bond yield plunged this week following an unexpectedly soft December Retail Sales report. Bond volatility could remain elevated with January CPI set for release on Friday. On the crude oil market front, WTI price appears to have temporarily settled into a $60-$65/bbl trading range, given there have been no major new geopolitical surprises over the past week. In natural gas, prompt natural gas price has completely roundtripped since the Arctic blast started and is now trading back at ~$3.15/MMBtu. U.S. gas storage is back near normal levels (around the 5-year average) and winter weather from here through the end of withdrawal season will determine how constructive the setup is for summer gas price. On the broader equity market front, the DJIA has been one of the real winners this past week (up ~2.5-3.0%), especially versus the S&P 500 (up ~0.5%). Cyclical sectors (Energy, Industrials, and Materials) continue to be the market leaders, while Tech/Telecom continue to lag. In energy equities, most large-caps (Oil Majors, Oil Services, and Refiners) have already reported Q4 results, and the next few weeks will be dominated by E&Ps reporting. E&P commentary will likely be do

Ali Moshiri, former 40-year Chevron executive and now CEO of Amos Global Energy, brings deep operational and geopolitical experience in Venezuela. He dispels misconceptions from migration-focused narratives. He discusses Venezuela’s vast heavy-oil resources, realistic production and investment needs, workforce and service-company roles, and how public-private structures and capital flow could drive a rapid oil-led recovery.

Today we were delighted to welcome Jim Murchie, Co-Founder, Co-Portfolio Manager, and CEO of Energy Income Partners (EIP). Prior to co-founding EIP, Jim’s career in power and electricity included establishing Lawhill Capital, serving as a Managing Director at Tiger Management focused primarily on energy, commodities, and related equities, and working as a Principal at Sanford C. Bernstein, where he was a top-ranked energy analyst. He began his career at British Petroleum and holds an MA in Energy Planning from Harvard University. We were thrilled to connect with Jim for an insightful discussion on the power landscape. We covered a lot of ground in our conversation, starting with how EIP navigates macro and market volatility by focusing on regulated monopolies and pipelines with stable, cost-plus earnings, Jim’s career path and research philosophy, and how EIP’s focus on utilities and pipelines emerged from investor demand for real assets and dividends. Jim provides a history lesson on power markets and how deregulated wholesale markets evolved, Enron-era manipulation, and the early-2000s gas plant buildout that ultimately led to overcapacity and merchant distress. We dig into the three-bucket framework for customer bills (generation, transmission, and distribution/other) and why the public debate often overemphasizes generation, while the biggest driver of residential bill increases has been distribution/other costs (bucket three). Jim explains that the third bucket on power bills often acts as a catch-all for costs that are neither generation nor transmission, even when they aren’t distribution in the literal last-mile sense, and that greater billing and policy transparency can clarify what’s exogenous versus what’s controllable. He describes how the impact of data centers can differ between vertically integrated cost-plus states and deregulated commodity-market states, and unpacks behind-the-meter realities, including how hyperscalers often prefer a grid connection for reliability but still deploy backup generation. We discuss the administration’s push for hyperscalers to sign long-term contracts to enable new generation build, policymakers’ heightened focus on avoiding blackouts, and why this is often a peaking problem more than a supply problem. Jim emphasizes how incentives, rather than intent, drive investment behavior in regulated versus deregulated markets, challenges the narrative that data centers are inherently driving higher power prices, and highlights the economic value of reliability investments and peak-load management in shaping long-term system costs. It was a wide-ranging discussion, and we look forward to continuing the dialogue with Jim in a future episode. As you will hear, we reference a few items in the discussion. Please find the links below: Energy Income Partners Report: “Power Struggle I – How False Political Narratives Cloud the Drivers of Higher Residential Electricity Prices” (linked here)Energy Income Partners Report: “Power Struggle II – How Market Structure Affects Wholesale Power Price Increases” (linked here)Veriten’s COBT episode featuring Thomas Popik, Foundation for Resilient Societies (linked here)Mike Bradley opened the discussion by noting that the 10-year U.S. bond yield looks to be the least volatile asset class at this juncture, with the 10-year bond yield trading very rangebound (around 4.25%). The dominant market theme this week, and for much of the year, has been extreme volatility across commodities (Bitcoin, Energy, and Metals). On the crude oil market front, WTI price is trading at ~$63/bbl, with volatility elevated over t

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Dr. Mike Laufer, Co-Founder and CEO of Kairos Power, for a robust nuclear-focused discussion. Kairos recently marked its nine-year anniversary and has grown to 500+ employees across its headquarters in Alameda, CA, its manufacturing development campus in Albuquerque, NM, and its Hermes Demonstration Reactor Campus in Oak Ridge, TN. Kairos is developing its fluoride salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (KP-FHR), which pairs TRISO pebble fuel with a low-pressure molten-salt coolant (“Flibe”) and is designed for modular deployment, including a two-reactor/one-turbine configuration delivering up to ~150 MWe. The company’s Oak Ridge program includes Hermes 1, the first non-water-cooled reactor to receive an NRC construction permit, and Hermes 2, a commercial-scale demonstration plant intended to supply electricity to the grid. Mike earned his Ph.D. in Nuclear Engineering from the University of California, Berkeley, and his undergraduate degree in Mechanical Engineering from Stanford University. His research included work in reactor safety, design, licensing, and code validation for advanced non-light water reactors. We were thrilled to visit with Mike. In our conversation, Mike shares the early vision behind Kairos, the company’s focus on U.S. electricity markets and building a reactor that can compete on cost, and their strategy centered on iterative hardware demonstrations and vertical integration. We discuss system-level parallelization, developing upstream/downstream “balance-of-plant” elements alongside reactor work to compress timelines and de-risk full-system integration, NRC engagement dating back to 2018, safety case fundamentals, sizing and product configuration, and how the Google partnership supports a sequence of deployments toward ~500 MW by 2035 (Google announcement linked here). Mike offers a realistic view of the nuclear learning curve and what it takes to drive down cost and schedule uncertainty over successive projects, how Kairos structured the Google deployment pathway, and the importance of setting achievable targets. We touch on how SMR winners and losers will be determined by project execution and delivery, not announcements, and Mike highlights common pitfalls in the conventional U.S. nuclear project model, including fragmented roles and misaligned incentives. We discuss Kairos’s centralized “hub” model with clear decision-making authority, its approach to validating partners and execution steps at smaller scale before taking on multi-billion-dollar FOAK risk, and how the organization maintains efficiency by balancing multiple deliverables and hiring “wildly competent” people comfortable with ambiguity. We also cover how commodity inflation and supply-chain depth affect planning, Kairos’s focus on strategic supplier partnerships, particularly in steel, concrete, and precast concrete, the importance of public trust and earning long-term community support, how non-nuclear test systems build real operating capability and flexible operating models, how AI may eventually improve execution and reliability, and much more. We’re very grateful to Mike for sharing his time and expertise with us. Mike Bradley kicked off the show by noting that the 10-year U.S. bond yield appears to have temporarily stabilized around 4.2% and is awaiting Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision. Most expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged, though volatility could ensue if they don’t! On the crude oil front, WTI price has inched up to $62/bbl amid continued bearishness in financial contract length and recent severe winter weather. There’s speculation that this Polar Vortex (which we’ve dubbed the “Polar Pig”) has reduced U.S. oil production by ~1.5mmbpd. On the natural gas front, the Polar Pig has spiked prompt U.S. natural gas price to ~$6/MM

Grant Isaac, President and COO of Cameco, shares his insights on the future of nuclear energy, emphasizing its shift from "maybe" to a crucial necessity due to climate and energy security. He discusses Cameco's strategic approach, integrating all phases of nuclear production and the impact of their recent Westinghouse acquisition. Grant highlights the increasing investor interest as Cameco is viewed as a nuclear super-major with unique assets. He also predicts a significant increase in demand and investments by 2026, driving the need for a more standardized nuclear product.

David MacNaughton, a strategic advisor at CIBC and former Canadian Ambassador to the U.S., shares his insights on pressing global issues. He discusses the central role of energy in the current geopolitical landscape, emphasizing the need for public-private collaboration. MacNaughton highlights the threats of populism and AI-driven job disruption, urging businesses to treat geopolitics as a core risk. He also outlines Canada’s ambition to become an energy superpower while balancing environmental commitments and market diversification.

Neil Mehta, Managing Director at Goldman Sachs, Carly Davenport, Vice President, and Brian Singer, Global Head of GS SUSTAIN, dive into the evolving energy landscape. They discuss how the Energy, CleanTech & Utilities Conference has expanded its focus, particularly on sustainability as risk mitigation. Singer emphasizes the transition to a 'yes-and' energy supply model amid rising demand, while Davenport shares insights on stock-picking strategies. The trio also addresses the implications of market trends in Venezuela and the importance of infrastructure investment in tackling affordability and political risks.

Today we were thrilled to welcome Governor Kevin Stitt of Oklahoma. Governor Stitt was first elected in 2018 and re-elected in 2022. Before entering politics, he was a successful entrepreneur. His company, Gateway, grew into a nationwide mortgage company and, through a merger, became Gateway First Bank, now one of Oklahoma’s ten largest banks. In 2018, he received more votes than any gubernatorial candidate in Oklahoma history in his first bid for elected office. As Governor, he has prioritized delivering more value for taxpayers, and his fiscally conservative approach has helped Oklahoma build its largest savings balance in state history. Governor Stitt also serves as Chair of the National Governors Association, which was founded in 1908 to advance bipartisan dialogue, policy innovation, and information-sharing among the nation’s governors. It was an honor to host the Governor for an insightful conversation on permitting reform, power affordability, and the policy bottlenecks shaping the U.S. energy and infrastructure buildout. In our conversation, we explore why states, through the bipartisan work of the National Governors Association, are central to unlocking U.S. competitiveness and fixing bottlenecks that Washington has struggled to address. Governor Stitt lays out a practical, pro-business, free-market philosophy to build more of everything, remove obstacles, and let innovation and capital do the work, shaped by his background as a business leader turned governor. We discuss Oklahoma’s behind-the-meter power policy that allows large users to self-supply, the broader affordability and power price debate, and the need to better educate the public on where electricity comes from. We dig into what’s broken in today’s policy framework, including the lack of a single accountable federal regulator, and how short-term politics and pendulum swings can stall long-term, common-sense reforms. We also touch on the added complexity of tribal sovereignty and federal involvement in energy infrastructure development. As mentioned, the National Governors Association’s permitting proposal, “NGA Letter on Energy Permitting Priorities” (published in October 2025) is linked here. We greatly enjoyed the discussion and appreciate Governor Stitt for his time. Mike Bradley noted the 10-year bond yield (~4.18%) has traded sideways to start the year. December CPI printed in line with expectations, with PPI due tomorrow. If economic reports continue to print in line, bond yields will likely remain rangebound until the January 28 FOMC meeting. On the oil market front, WTI is up ~$3.50/bbl (~$61/bbl) this year despite 2026 surplus concerns. Oil markets have quickly shifted from 1H26 oversupply and Venezuelan oil production increases to rising Iran-related risk, with the potential for a sharper spike if tensions escalate, especially given that institutional investors are currently bearish (Goldman Sachs Oil Sentiment survey) and very short oil contract “financial” length. In equities, the S&P 500 is up ~2% YTD with the biggest sector winners being cyclicals (Energy, Industrials, and Materials). Materials is the best performing S&P sector this year (up ~7%) due to growing optimism that global GDP growth will be headed higher in 2026. The Russell 2000 is up ~6%, which is far outpacing the S&P 500 & Big AI/Tech stocks, and could be an early sign that market breadth is widening. Energy is up ~5% this year with Oil Services up ~12%, Refiners up ~8% and U.S. Oil Majors up ~6% on hopes that they’ll all be beneficiaries of future Venezuelan infrastructure investment and a quick redirection of heavy oil barrels to Gulf Coast refiners. He closed with takeaways from the Goldman Sachs Energy, Clean Tech & Utilities Conference last week including a real sense of optimism despite investors still being most

Today we had the pleasure of welcoming back Rob West, Founder and Lead Analyst at Thunder Said Energy, continuing our tradition of kicking off the year with his perspectives. Rob has joined us on COBT six times in our history and has earned the honor of holding the lead-off spot in 2022, 2024, 2025, and now 2026. He is a long-time energy analyst and provides unique, thought-provoking, and economic-driven insights into energy research and technologies. Rob launched Thunder Said in 2019 and previously served at Sanford C. Bernstein and Partners Capital. Based in Estonia, he brings a valuable global lens to the energy landscape. One of Veriten’s highlights from 2025 was having Rob join the firm as a Senior Advisor. We were delighted to visit with Rob to reflect on 2025 and explore what the future might hold for energy in 2026. In our conversation, Rob reflects on the shift in the dominant energy-market narrative from net zero and the energy transition (2021 – 2023), to geopolitical security post Russia-Ukraine, and now overwhelmingly toward AI and power demand. We discuss the outlook for sharply higher global defense spending by 2030 and its potential benefits to infrastructure, industry, AI, smart grids, and competitiveness. Rob outlines a broader recalibration of energy “truths” entering 2026 including solar growth potentially flattening, EV growth slowing or declining, the LNG glut narrative being questioned, and oil demand continuing to grow at roughly ~+1 MMbbl/d per year. Rob shares his outlook on global LNG, highlighting a wave of new supply that is frequently delayed, Russian LNG logistics constraints, Australia’s domestic market interventions, and how policy changes in the U.S. and China are contributing to slower EV sales. We explore whether rising marginal coal mining costs in China could translate into higher Chinese power prices, China’s energy strategy and diversification, and the copper outlook, including potential demand headwinds if solar and EV growth slows in 2026, alongside the importance of “primary analysis.” Rob highlights why flexible grids and better utilization are the biggest levers to reducing power system costs and explains his rationale for a more cautious U.S. shale outlook, remarking that oil markets are now influenced less by OPEC policy and more by U.S. foreign policy pressure. We closed by asking Rob for his biggest wildcard for 2026, which he identified as a collapse/fracturing of Russia as a state, with major implications for resource markets and control of assets. It was an insightful discussion and we can’t thank Rob enough for sharing his time and thoughts with us. Mike Bradley and Arjun Murti both joined from the Goldman Sachs Energy, CleanTech & Utilities Conference in Miami. Mike opened by emphasizing that two of the major market themes in 2025 were AI/data center and electricity demand growth. He noted that most investors still believe these two themes will continue to resonate in 2026, and will probably need to, especially at current valuations. On the energy commodity front, WTI oil price is up ~2% so far this year, while U.S. natural gas price is down ~8% on a warmer weather outlook. Across broader equities, the S&P 500 is up ~1% this year while the DJIA is up ~2%. The best performing sectors so far this year have been energy, financial, industrial, and materials, while the underperformers have been technology and telecom. On the energy equity front, he noted that last weekend’s events in Venezuela have lifted (materially in some cases) shares of U.S. oil majors, large-cap international oil services and Gulf Coast refiners, while E&Ps have been the underperformers. The wide divergence in energy equity performance this week is mostly due to optimism of an infrastructure/oil services/oil production revival in Venezuela which may be premature. He added that hedge funds could be a culprit for these outsized moves mostly because they weren’t positi