The Breakdown

The aftershock of the 2016 The DAO hack meant that DAOs weren’t nearly as hyped as ICOs and later some other aspects of the web3 movement. In 2019, however, DAOs came roaring back and start 2020 with the wind at their sails.  In this episode, we look at the 2019 DAO tale of the tape - what people thought would happen and what actually did happen, including the launch of Moloch, MetaCartel, Ethereum’s MarketingDAO and more than 1000 DAOs on Aragon. We also hear from Aragon founder Luis Cuende who discusses 1) why the newly launched Aragon courts expand what DAOs can do; 2) examples of the need for subjective human intervention in DAOs; and 3) why 2020 is poised to be DAOs best year yet.

The conversation about whether bitcoin is a safe haven asset continues in the wake of Iranian missile strikes, which saw the price of BTC both surge and retrace in parallel with crude and gold. To help explain what’s going on, we feature comments from Ikigai Asset Management’s Travis Kling.  Also in today’s episode, we look at newly published priorities from the SEC around crypto including investor suitability, trading practices, and compliance program effectiveness. We also discuss former Bakkt CEO and now Georgia Senator Kelly Loeffler’s appointment to the committee that oversees the CFTC. Is it a conflict of interest, something good for the crypto industry, or both?

In their annual transparency report, Kraken reported seeing a 50% increase in regulatory inquiries as compared to 2018, which CEO Jesse Powell later revealed cost the exchange more than $1m. Between this and stories like the $2m it cost Blockstack to raise $23m in an SEC compliant token sale (8.7% of the raise), it begs the question: will compliance costs fundamentally limit innovation by demanding big war chests to play? Will the most successful companies be those who (like Block One) simply raise enough to pay off the regulators on the back end?  We also look at new mining interests in Texas and what it means for Amiercan mining and bitcoin mining in the lead up to the halving more broadly, as well as dissect an op-ed from the IMF’s chief economist on the strength of the dollar over digital alternatives.

Last week, the US government took out a key Iranian military leader. As the world - and the markets - reacts to the news, some are asking what happens with bitcoin. With global instability on the rise, will more people turn to bitcoin as a safe haven asset? Will speculators drive the price up on that narrative even if it doesn’t bear out in reality? If Iranians use crypto, will that draw the attention and ire of regulators?  In a different area of the industry, Telegram has released updated information about their forthcoming crypto token TON. Most notable was the bombshell that the token would not be integrated into Telegram Messenger - which was, of course, the predominant logic behind the more than $1.7B that was invested in the TON presale.  Finally, we discuss the dust up around Nakamoto.com, a new crypto journal that was almost immediately accused of affinity scamming and censorship. Is it a case of overzealous bitcoin defenders or does the critique hold merit? 

The past few weeks have seen multiple instances of large, centralized tech giants censoring crypto related content and activity. Noticed in the context of the Coinbase Wallet, Apple is pushing back against apps that have anything to do with Dapps. YouTube caused even more of a stir when it took down hundreds of crypto-related videos from prominent influencers without any warning. It later reversed the action, claiming an error, but it was enough to get many to ask: are decentralized alternatives possible?  As if on cue, Justin Sun popped up to announce that TRON had struck a deal through which decentralized Twitch competitor and streaming service DLive would be moving to the TRON Blockchain and integrating with BitTorrent’s BLive streaming service. For many, however, TRON’s involvement makes DLive more likely to end up a centralized tool than a disruptive decentralized social network alternative. 

Taylor Monahan is the founder and CEO of MyCrypto. In this interview as part of The Breakdown’s end of year coverage, she argues that the level of discourse in crypto matured in 2019, with more focus on things that actually matter. That’s important, because in 2020, she predicts a major fork-in-the-road moment, where the industry as a whole could either stay on the path set out in its cypherpunk roots, or be significantly co-opted and corrupted by the entrace of corporate and government actors into the space.

Tom Shaughnessy is a co-founder at Delphi Digital as well as the host of the Chain Reaction podcast. Jordan Clifford is managing director of Scalar Capital. In this end of year interview for The Breakdown, Tom argues that the big story of 2019 was actually the fact that it was all about quiet building. When it comes to 2020, however, watch out for fireworks. Tom predicts we’ll see a major increase in the layer 1 smart contract platform wars, as well as an increased in the perceived importance of token economic design. Jordan meanwhile argues that we’re likely to see a shift back to development at the application layer.

Katherine Wu was a founding team member at Messari before moving into a VC role at Notation Capital, but is perhaps best known in crypto for her epic annotations of key regulatory enforcement actions. In this end of year interview with The Breakdown, Katherine argues that decentralized finance is the narrative of 2019, but also that when it comes to 2020, the emergence of a Chinese digital yuan is likely to have a huge impact on the crypto space.

Sometimes things are clear, and to both Camila Russo (write of The Defiant newsletter) and David Hoffman (co-host of the Crypto POV podcast), it couldn’t be clearer that the essential narrative of 2019 was the rise of DeFi as a true market force. In individual interviews as part of The Breakdown’s end of year coverage, each also makes a 2020 DeFi prediction. For David, it’s all about increased attention on the space and the power of composability, while for Camila, it’s a bet that we’ll start to see the first under-collateralized DeFi loans.

Marty Bent is the author of one of the most popular daily Bitcoin newsletters and co-host of Tales From The Crypt. In this end of year interview with The Breakdown, he talks about the macro context - from trade wars to pressure on the fed to continue and expand the QE experiment to global instability - and how it is painting in stark colors the need for tools like bitcoin.