The Breakdown

Vijay Boyapati’s “The Bullish Case for Bitcoin” is one of the most influential articles in the history of the industry – even being assigned reading from MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor as he tried to convince his board on the merits of what would become its big bitcoin move.  In this conversation with NLW, Vijay discusses his recent thinking around four valuation frameworks that help us understand 1) how people see bitcoin’s upside potential and 2) the likely values they suggest for bitcoin. We also discuss why state-level attacks are Vijay’s biggest concern for bitcoin’s future.

Today on the Brief: Tesla to join S&P 500 Airbnb files for IPO  The Mooch wants crypto  Our main discussion: HODL FOMO vs. Speculative FOMO. The 2017-2018 bull run was driven by ICO mania and a relentless get-richism that was nothing if not short-term. As bitcoin passes $17,000 and questions of looming all-time highs start to make their way into mainstream press, it is a very new set of actors and a new set of thinking that is driving this movement.

Today on the Brief:  Moderna trial success drives markets up New all-time high in negative-yielding debt Jay Clayton to leave SEC  Our main discussion: BTC $318,000 in December 2021? That’s the prediction of one Citibank exec in a report called “Bitcoin: 21st Century Gold” sent last week to institutional clients. In this episode, NLW breaks down the report, including the macro justification that sets the stage as well as the technical analysis that led to these numbers. Ultimately, he argues that what matters isn’t the report’s predictions, but the fact that its very existence suggests a shifting narrative for institutional buyers.   

On this week’s edition of Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads former IMF chief and current Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff’s latest Op-Ed, “The Calm Before the Exchange Rate Storm” in Project Syndicate.

On this edition of the weekly recap, NLW looks at bitcoin’s surge past $16,000. Additionally, he explores some recent FUD from Ray Dalio, which NLW argues seems strangely locked in years-old narratives. 

Today on the Brief: Christine Lagarde’s digital euro hunch Deutsche Bank CBDC note COVID-19 resurgent    Our main discussion: PayPal is rolling out crypto to all its users and increasing transaction limits from $10,000 to $20,000. In this episode, NLW breaks down the community response to the news, including an interesting discussion of whether the company’s BitLicense requires PayPal to hold 1:1 all the BTC its customers pay for.   

Robby Gutmann is the co-founder of Stone Ridge Holdings Group, a $10 billion alternative asset manager and co-founder and CEO of NYDIG, the group’s bitcoin subsidiary.  In this first-ever podcast conversation, Gutmann discusses:  Buying his first bitcoin from Craigslist in 2010 The personal and professional experiences that drove his team to bitcoin Why bitcoin fits the firm's founding principle of financial security for all  A set of key trends driving institutional investors and fiduciaries/asset managers into the bitcoin space  Why the coming year is poised for even more aggressive expansion of the investor market for bitcoin

Yele Bademosi is CEO at Bundle social payments app and the founder of investment firm microtraction. Akin Sawyerr is involved across the industry and leads operations at BarnBridge.  Over the course of October 2020, the world’s attention became firmly fixed on a growing movement in Nigeria. With the hashtag #EndSARS, the movement was, on the one hand, about addressing police brutality. On the other hand, as our guests discuss, it was a broader awakening and a demand for generational economic opportunity. At one point, even Twitter founder Jack Dorsey called for people to donate bitcoin to help the movement.  In this conversation, Yele and Akin discuss: The state of the economy in Nigeria leading into the protests Generational differences in political action  Why the #EndSARS protests exploded into action in October Why the movement turned to bitcoin to avoid bank confiscation  How crypto can play a role in a brighter future Find our guests online: Yele Bademosi - twitter.com/YeleBademosi Akin Sawyerr - twitter.com/AkinSawyerr

Today on the Brief:  Was Monday’s stock rally overdone?  Lebanon to launch digital currency 3 reasons BTC has rallied 60%+ in two months Our main discussion: Stan Druckenmiller, Bitcoin Bull.  A few months ago, Stan Druckenmiller told CNBC that he could imagine inflation of 5%–10%. Yesterday, he returned to the network to discuss why bitcoin had captured his attention as a potential hedge.

Today on the Brief:  GRIN gets 51% attacked Crypto trading volume down 25.8% in October  How the market is receiving Joe Biden Our main discussion: The stock market soars on promising Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine trials.  The S&P 500 and DJIA hit new all-time highs after Pfizer announced its experimental vaccine had prevented COVID-19 in 90% of patients. Travel stocks soared, work from home stocks suffered and safe havens fell. In this episode, NLW explores the shifting market sentiment, as well as what it means for bitcoin.