Credit Currents - Moody's Ratings

Giulia Calcabrini, Chandra Ghosal, Patrick Ronk
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Mar 30, 2022 • 17min

Russia-Ukraine crisis exacerbates food price inflation; financial conditions tighten for emerging markets

In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Mickael Gondrand of the Sovereign team joins host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss the credit implications of rising food prices for emerging and frontier markets. Plus, Thaddeus Best of the Global Emerging Markets team discusses the reasons why emerging markets are more likely to be able to withstand tightening global financial conditions than in the past.Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Sovereigns – Emerging & Frontier Markets: High food prices will exacerbate macroeconomic challenges, raise social risks; Middle East & Africa most exposedEmerging Markets - Global: Financial Conditions Monitor: March 2022 Credit Conditions – Global Five areas to watch as the US Federal Reserve embarks on a rate-hike cycle  © 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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Mar 16, 2022 • 16min

CBDCs could foster financial inclusion, growth; El Salvador Bitcoin bond entails high risks

In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Olivier Chemla of the Sovereign team joins host Thaddeus Best to discuss the potential credit implications of central bank digital currencies. Plus, Jaime Reusche of the Sovereign team discusses the risks associated with El Salvador's adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender, and its upcoming Bitcoin bond issuance.Related ReportsGovernment of El Salvador: Bitcoin bond issuance carries significant risks for potential investors and conventional bondholdersCentral bank digital currencies offer sovereigns opportunity to improve policy effectiveness and economic performance  © 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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Mar 3, 2022 • 17min

Russia-Ukraine crisis increases global macroeconomic risks; most economies sustain less pandemic scarring

In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Madhavi Bokil of the Credit Strategy team joins host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss new risks to the global macroeconomic outlook from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Plus, David Rogovic of the Sovereign team discusses the credit implications of less economic scarring from the pandemic.Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Russia-Ukraine crisis injects new risks into global economic outlookAs COVID crisis recedes, global economy downshifts toward trend growthEnergy ties raise risks, but credit impact from limited Russia-Ukraine conflict is lowStronger economic recovery will reduce but not eliminate scarring for most sovereigns  © 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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Feb 16, 2022 • 20min

Escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions will weigh on sovereigns, banks, with spillovers to Europe

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Evan Wohlmann and Petter Bryman of the Sovereign team, and Olga Ulyanova of the Financial Institutions team join host Thaddeus Best to discuss the credit implications of rising tensions between Western countries and Russia over the latter’s military buildup on its border with Ukraine. Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Sovereign – Russia & Ukraine: FAQ on heightened tensions and an outright conflict between Russia & UkraineBanks – Russia: Russian banks' proprietary investments lose value as geopolitical risks rattle marketsSovereigns – Europe: Energy ties raise risks, but credit impact from limited Russia-Ukraine conflict is lowBanking System Outlook Update – Russia: Outlook changed to stable as economic recovery supports asset quality, profitability  © 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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Feb 2, 2022 • 19min

Foreign direct investment decline lowers emerging markets’ growth potential

In this episode of Emerging Markets Decoded, Thaddeus Best from the Credit Strategy and Research team and Alexander Perjessy of the Sovereign team join host Ariane Ortiz-Bollin to discuss the credit implications of the decline in foreign direct investment flows across emerging markets. Plus, they discuss how growing global commitments to carbon transition will increase credit risks for hydrocarbon-reliant sovereigns.Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Emerging Markets – Global FDI flows to emerging markets face structural headwinds, weighing on growth potentialSovereigns – Hydrocarbon exporters Strengthening global commitment to carbon transition increases longer-term credit risks  © 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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Jan 19, 2022 • 15min

Emerging markets’ climate financing falls short; deforestation in Brazil weighs on businesses

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Ruosha Li from the Credit Strategy & Research team, Barbara Mattos from the Corporates team and Ana Rayes from the ESG team join host Thaddeus Best to discuss the gap in emerging markets’ climate financing needs and sources, as well as the rising social and environmental risks that deforestation poses to businesses in Brazil.Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Sovereigns – Emerging markets - Concessional and market-based financing vastly undershoots climate-resilience funding needs Corporates – Latin America & Caribbean - Deforestation intensifies reputational risk for companies operating in Brazil  © 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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Jan 13, 2022 • 16min

China’s economic rebalancing will reduce social risks, but transition will be bumpy

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Lillian Li from the Credit Strategy & Research team and Lina Choi from the Corporates team join host Shirin Mohammadi to discuss how China’s common prosperity framework and new antitrust regulations will shape the credit outlook for the sovereign and businesses. Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Government Policy – China - 'Common prosperity' agenda will create transition risks, with longer-term benefits if well implemented Technology Services – China - Antitrust regulations limit market-share expansion and reduce earnings growth  © 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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Dec 8, 2021 • 19min

African sovereigns and banks will face significant challenges in 2022

Aurelien Mali of the Sovereign team and Jorge Rodriguez-Valez of the Credit Strategy team discuss the outlook for Sub-Saharan African sovereigns and African banks as they grapple with the pandemic’s lasting effect on the region’s economies. Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Sovereigns – Sub-Saharan Africa - 2022 outlook negative amid fragile recovery, persistent external risks and limited scope for adjustmentBanks – Africa - Problem loans will deteriorate moderately with limited impact on capital for most African banks  © 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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Nov 17, 2021 • 13min

Emerging markets will face multispeed recovery, even as credit conditions stabilize

Atsi Sheth of the Credit Strategy & Research team discusses the outlook for global emerging markets, noting that while credit conditions will stabilize in 2022, high leverage, inflation and deteriorating financial conditions will increase risks for weaker countries and sectors. Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Emerging Markets – Global 2022 Outlook – Multispeed recovery with stark differences across regions and sectors  © 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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Oct 27, 2021 • 16min

Rising commodity prices, political risk and inflation reshape LatAm credit conditions

Barbara Mattos of the Corporate Finance team and Farooq Khan of the Financial Institutions team discuss the mixed credit implications of rising commodity prices, rising inflation and political risk for companies and banks across Latin America.Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Credit Conditions – Latin America & Caribbean: Credit quality will remain strong in region despite weaker growth prospectsCross-Sector – Argentina: Companies, utilities, sub-sovereigns struggle with inflation, weak growth in 2022Cross-Sector – Brazil: Strong balance sheets and liquidity support credit quality by 2022 amid macro risksCross-Sector – Chile: Corporate credit quality will hold firm in 2022 as economy emerges from pandemicCross-Sector – Mexico: Solid growth supports corporate income and debt reduction, easing leverage in 2022Cross-Sector – Peru: Companies regain footing through 2022, but investors will hesitate on policy risks  © 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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