The Other Hand

Ireland's export data weakens again. It's beginning to look like a trend. And maybe the world economy is weaker than we thought.The Health Service needs more money. How many countries can say that? It's as true in Ireland as elsewhere. But the suspicion grows that you could give the HSE any amount of money and it would still have a budget hole of €2 billion at the end of the year. Any year. Somebody needs to find teh cure for fiscal incontinence.The world looks ever more dangerous by the day. Plenty of gloomy analyses are appearing that look back on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as the start of something akin to the events that began with assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in June 1914. At the very least, lots of seemingly disparate events are observed and then linked in ways that make for alarmist headlines. The war in Ukraine, Iran’s threatened war against Israel, conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Serbia might be about to invade Kosovo, the US placing two carrier groups in the eastern Mediterranean and Chinese threats against Taiwan: all of these things are, for some observers, beginning to look like a pattern. The thread - if there is one - that links most or all of these conflicts, actual or threatened, is growing American dysfunction and, in particular, isolationism of the US. One interpretation of post WW2 history is that the world went through an unusually peaceful period mostly because of ‘Pax Americana’: the US as the global policeman. Commentators such as Hal Brands of Johns Hopkins, prominent blogger (‘Substacker’ to be precise) Noah Smith and historian Niall Ferguson have all penned dark and pessimistic pieces focussing on different aspects of the threats facing the world. All agree that those threats have not been as great for a very long time. Mostly because ‘Pax Americana’ is over.History does teach us that what happens next is unlikely to have been predicted by anybody. But the more apocalyptic analysts see two obvious threats. First, the Israeli armed forces are overwhelmed fighting a three front war in Gaza, the West Bank and along the Lebanese border. Somewhere - perhaps everywhere - in that fight will be Iran. If the US gets involved, so, perhaps, will Iran’s new ally, Russia. As an intermediate possible step, Qatar could disrupt global supplies of natural gas in the same way OPEC did to oil in the 1970s - that would make last year’s spike in energy prices look like a small-scale rehearsal. The other big foreseeable threat is Taiwan. China has said, explicitly, that it will take back the Island. If it intends to do so over the next decade or so, now would seem to be the most opportune time. ‘Joining the dots’ is the favourite activity of the armchair analyst. The pictures that emerge from these exercises can be truly alarming. They could, of course, be completely wrong. But a lot of people are drawing very similar pictures. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Why Ireland lost in a game of the finest of margins - really.On the numbers, Ireland and New Zealand could replay that game, deploy the same players and tactics, and Ireland would win 9 games out of 10. This was the tenth game.What about Ireland going forward - looking good, even in terms of replacing Jonny Sexton. Tight Head Prop, a massively under-rated position, could be more problematic.How is it possible that England are the only undefeated side in the World Cup? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Everything really is connected to everything else Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We really are doing economic policy all wrong Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

They really deserved to win this one Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Professor Charlotte Cavaillé is a global expert on inequality and redistribution. Her extensive research program has reframed the discussion such that our perceptions of fairness are front and centre. With some surprising results.In many countries, particularly the US and UK, inequality has risen. Economists might argue that self-interested electorates, which contain increasing numbers of people suffering form inequality, might start calling for more redistribution. But the evidence says not. Moreover, in France, where inequality has not risen in US-style fashion, people are convinced they live in ever worse economic conditions.The more we think about this, the more complicated things become. Professor Cavaillé urges us, persuasively, to think about the issues in new ways.If we focus on who we are redistributing from, we might get a very different discussion compared to when we focus on who we are redistributing to. Fat cats in the 1% or benefit scrounging freeloaders?The immigration debate is salient everywhere. Breaking down - understanding our societal norms about fairness & proportionality - help to explain why, Danish-style, allowing migrants to work - to earn - has more popular appeal than giving them benefits. It might even make sense - countries that restrict or forbid migrant employment take note.We discuss all this and more with Charlotte as she takes us through her brilliant new book 'Fair Enough" Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Do we have a right brain problem? Author and journalist Matthew Syed said so in a recent fascinating Sunday Times column.Professor of Neuroscience at Trinity College Dublin, Shane O'Mara, says no.So why is our political discourse, pretty much everywhere, so polarised, context & nuance free, and just so nasty?Why, when we know, with as much certainty as we can muster, that the world is a very uncertain place, is everyone so certain?Shane is tempted to say that the world was ever thus and Chris & Jim should stay off Twitter.Point taken, but the authoritarian, conspiracy loving nut jobs do seem to have the upper hand - or at least are making more noise.In this podcast, AI is confused with AIB. That is a step too far. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Are equities heading for an October event? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Batten down the hatches? Fat chance Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Time for rocket scientists to stop blowing up the (economic) world Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.