Odd Lots

Howard Gutman, former U.S. ambassador and managing director at Gutman Group, teams up with Andrew Durant, managing director at Samuels International Associates, to discuss the archaic Foreign Dredging Act of 1906. They highlight how this law restricts access to advanced foreign dredging technology, harming U.S. economy and efficiency in ports. The duo emphasizes urgent reforms needed to enhance environmental protection while boosting economic growth. They also address the ramifications for U.S. shipping and competitiveness on the global stage.

James Frith, a lithium battery expert and Principal at Volta Energy Technologies, provides keen insights into the current battery supply chain challenges amidst rising oil prices. He discusses the urgency of securing essential metals for EVs and the geopolitical factors impacting availability. Frith also highlights the promise of solid-state batteries, advancements in charging technology, and the crucial role of government investment in enhancing domestic mining capacities, all while considering environmental concerns in the shift towards a sustainable energy future.

Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs' global head of commodities research, shares his expertise on the ongoing commodities supercycle, which he believes is only in its early stages. He introduces the concept of a 'volatility trap' that's sidelining investments despite soaring spot commodity prices. Currie discusses the pressing need for regulatory changes to incentivize investment, the tightness in the copper market, and the challenges presented by the transition to greener energy. His insights illuminate the intricate dynamics of today’s commodity landscape.

For much of the last two decades, housing has been the consummate macro asset. It was at the heart of a huge boom. Then there was the crash and the Great Financial Crisis. Then there was slow comeback and return to normal. And then amidst the pandemic, housing became insanely hot for a variety of reasons. But now housing is also a micro story, as the housing supply chain -- not a topic many people have put much thought into previously -- is a key reason why home construction is slow. So where does this all stand, now that mortgage just broke 5%? Do understand the state of the market, we speak with Conor Sen, a Bloomberg Opinion contributor and the founder of Peachtree Creek Investments as well as Dustin Jalbert a senior economist at Fastmarkets, with a specialty on the lumber market. We examine housing from both the macro perspective as well as the supply chain. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Zoltan Pozsar, Managing Director at Credit Suisse and a key voice in global finance, shares his insights on the evolving monetary system. He discusses the challenges of current economic issues that money can't solve, particularly in energy transitions. Pozsar elaborates on his concept of Bretton Woods III, highlighting its implications for market dynamics and international finance. The conversation also touches on the rising significance of alternative currencies like Bitcoin and the structural shifts in global trade amidst geopolitical tensions.

Marshall White, Professor Emeritus at Virginia Tech, dives into the unexpected role of wooden pallets in warfare, particularly regarding Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He explains how supply chain disruptions affect military logistics and the global pallet market. The conversation reveals the interconnectedness of wood supplies and their impact on pricing and availability. White discusses innovations in pallet technology and highlights the unique durability demands for pallets in military use, making it clear that even the simplest items can have significant geopolitical implications.

Matt Levine, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, and Mary Childs, author of "The Bond King" and NPR's Planet Money co-host, delve into the fascinating rise and fall of Bill Gross. They explore how Gross transformed bond investing from a dull practice into a lucrative trading empire through unconventional strategies. The discussion highlights his pivotal trades, internal PIMCO dynamics, and his complex legacy. Childs reflects on how personal rivalries shaped investment cultures, while both guests emphasize the pressing need for diversity in finance.

Damon Krukowsky, former drummer of Galaxie 500 and insightful music business writer, shares his frustrations with Spotify's opaque royalty system and its impact on independent artists. He delves into the economic challenges musicians face today and the disconnect between streaming platforms and artists. The discussion highlights the complexities of how music gets discovered and the ethical dilemmas of promotional practices. Krukowsky also addresses the rise of 'fake artists' and the implications of AI-generated music, unraveling the modern music industry's intricate dynamics.

Hugh Hendry, a former hedge fund manager and contrarian thinker now managing luxury properties in St. Barts, offers a unique perspective on the world economy. He discusses Europe's energy missteps and China's real estate woes while arguing that demand for dollar assets remains robust. Hendry critiques the financial forecasting landscape, highlights the complexities of modern trading, and reflects on the U.S.'s historical role as a global stabilizer. With insights into corporate withdrawals from Russia and market speculation, he urges adaptability in today's economic climate.

Viktor Shvets, Head of Global and Asia-Pacific Strategy at Macquarie Capital, dives deep into the complexities of global economics. He challenges the common perception that we're on a 1970s inflation track, suggesting a reevaluation could point to a potential deflationary bust. Shvets emphasizes the risks of central banks raising rates too rapidly, which could push economies into recession. He also highlights the intricate relationship between monetary policy, wealth distribution, and navigating the shifting geopolitical investment landscape.