Odd Lots

What if you woke up tomorrow and found the U.S. stock market was closed for good? That happened to investors in the Russian market after the communist revolution in 1917, leading to huge losses for people who had put their money in what was then one of the major economic and political powers in the world. The Russian example was brought up last month by Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, who sounded the alarm over the rise of populism and its impact on markets. In this edition of the Odd Lots podcast, we pick up the theme with Simon Hinrichsen, assistant portfolio manager at First State Investments, and guest co-host Sid Verma of Bloomberg News. We discuss how investors can prepare for the very worst. Along the way, we ask whether the dominant forces in markets today -- powerful countries, institutions and investment theories, such as the relationship between bonds and stocks -- can survive forever.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

History, as you may have heard, has a tendency to repeat. But does it repeat in ways that are measurable and predictable? We speak with Peter Borish, a veteran investor and trader who is currently chief strategist at the Quad Group. His experience reaches back three decades to when he worked for the legendary Paul Tudor Jones in 1985. Throughout his career, Borish has studied cycles, looking for patterns in data and human behavior, to help him anticipate turning points in markets and the economy. He talks about his approach, the use of data, how trading has changed over the course of his career -- and of course, what he thinks about the market right now.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of the most fascinating market phenomenons is the bubble. When they occur, fortunes are made and lost, and the full spectrum of human emotions, from fear to greed, are on display. But what defines a bubble exactly, and how do you know when you're actually seeing one? This week on Odd Lots, we speak with Harvard Business School economist Robin Greenwood, who has figured out the key characteristics that all stock market bubbles have in common.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Plenty of people pay their kids an allowance to teach them the value of hard work and earning money. But our guest on this week’s Odd Lots podcast takes it to the next level. Toby Nangle is a fund manager at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, who also happens to be fascinated with the question of how money and banking really work. So rather than just give his kids a typical allowance, he uses their spending money to run monetary experiments. How do children react to higher rates on savings? How do they react to negative interest rates? What are the ramifications of his policies on his own internal household wealth inequality. In this episode, Nangle talks about what he and his kids have learned in the process.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

"Buy local" is a mantra that has appeal across the political spectrum. Small communities have preached this gospel for a long time. Our current president advocates a version on a national scale. So how do you put it into practice? One experiment has been taking place in the Berkshires -- a region in the U.S. state of Massachusetts -- that has its own currency called Berkshares. On this week's Odd Lots podcast, we speak with Alice Maggio, the executive director of the currency, about how a regional currency works, what it accomplishes, and what they've learned from it.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A few weeks ago on the Odd Lots podcast, we talked to Paul Schmelzing, a Ph.D candidate at Harvard, who explained how the bull market in U.S. Treasuries could come to a screeching halt. This week we examine the other side of the debate. Our guest is Srinivas Thiruvadanthai, director of research at the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center in Mount Kisco, New York. He explains how a combination of structural factors in the global economy and massive levels of debt could depress interest rates on government debt for years to come. In addition to explaining why the bond bull market of more than three decades can survive, Thiruvadanthai explains what everyone gets wrong on how inflation occurs.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

If you have any interest at all in finance, then it's mandatory to have seen the 1983 movie "Trading Places." You remember, right? Two wealthy Philadelphia commodity brokers bet on whether anyone, even down-and-out Eddie Murphy, can be trained to become a successful trader. What you might not realize is that something very similar happened in real life. In this week's Odd Lots, we examine the amazing tale of the Turtle Traders. In 1983, successful commodities speculator Richard Dennis took out a full-page ad looking for novices to train in the art of trading. His novices -- who did spectacularly well -- studied for just a few weeks and were dubbed his "Turtles." Joining us to tell the story is Michael Covel, who wrote a book on the Turtles, and Jerry Parker, a former Turtle who still trades using the same technique today.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's a widespread sense that something remains broken in the global economy. Despite a comeback in official measures of economic performance, like GDP and the unemployment rate, there's a widespread sense of disillusionment and discontentment with the status quo. Clair Brown, an economics professor at UC Berkeley teaches a class on Buddhist Economics and has written a book on the subject. On this week's episode of the Odd Lots podcast, Brown argues that the application of Buddhist principles could help economists and policymakers focus on what will actually satisfy people, as opposed to material measures that leave them feeling cold and empty.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This podcast explores the battle between passive and active investing using a poker analogy. It discusses the impact of passive investing on active managers and strategies for outperforming. The concept of luck vs skill is also explored, emphasizing the role of luck in success. The hosts tease a possible future episode on a poker trip to Atlantic City.

Creating a new form of money is always tough. Will it hold its value? Will people trust it? Will people use it? All these challenges are even tougher if you're in the middle of a political chaos. On this week's Odd Lots, we speak with Rebecca Spang, a history professor at Indiana University and the author of a book about the monetary history of the French Revolution. Her book examines the disastrous attempt to create a new land-backed currency, the Assignat, in the late 1700s. The discussion sheds light on some fundamental issues that are still relevant today.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.