The Loonie Hour

Canadian banks announced earnings and are increasing their loan loss provisions, but likely not enough considering the outlook for the nations housing market. The Canadian dollar continues to perform well thanks to the energy bull market. Europe is bracing for a deep recession and a full blown energy crisis.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Seasonally adjusted average house prices have now dropped the most since the 1980's. Inflation is subsiding but central banks are determined to push ahead, even if it means creating a recession. China is facing deep economic issues and cut interest rates. Inflation hits double digits in England and Germany turns on the Nuclear reactors.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US inflation has made the turn and is now trending lower, but will it fall enough to allow central banks to pivot? Markets are ripping on potentially false hopes. Commodities continue to look favourable over the medium term, and more bearish predictions for the Canadian housing market.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Will the Central banks cave on their inflation mandate in the eyes of weakening economic data? The Bank of England just raised interest rates 50bps and says a recession is all but guaranteed for the fourth quarter and that it will last well into next year. The Canadian housing market continues to roll over, with both Vancouver & Toronto Real Estate markets experiencing multi-decade lows in housing sales. Toronto house prices dropped nearly 4% in the month of July. Financial stresses continue to escalate.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US federal Reserve raised interest rates another 75bps. More interestingly is that Powell will be removing forward guidance, and all future rate hikes are now data dependent. The US then recorded the second consecutive quarter of negative GDP, indicating a technical recession. Bond yields are falling on the news, and the all important Canada 5 year bond yield is now down nearly 100bps since peaking last month, indicating an upcoming decline in fixed rate mortgages.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

CPI inflation in Canada came in at a 40 year high, but was below market expectations. Has inflation peaked from a rate of change perspective? Meanwhile, in the economic fantasy land that is the European Union, the ECB raised rates by 50bps, brining interest rates to zero. The end of negative rates in Europe is officially here. China bank runs and a property bubble threaten stability across the globe. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Bank of Canada shocked markets with a 100bps rate hike, the largest rate hike since 1998. Variable rate mortgages are going up and we could soon see fixed payment mortgages get triggered with sudden payment increases. Meanwhile, the USD continues to be the global wrecking ball as investors take a risk-off stance.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Fixed Mortgage rates appear to have finally peaked and are now moving lower as markets price in an economic recession. The first major Canadian bank has now unveiled a recession call for 2023, will the other banks follow? Energy prices, rampant food inflation, and government policy are creating social unrest as protests break out across parts of the world.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Latest data from the Atlanta Fed is suggesting we might already be in a recession. Meanwhile, home sales continue to slow in suburban housing markets, and stresses are rising in the corporate bond market with spreads widening to levels last seen in 2018 when the Fed was forced to pivot. Happy Canada Day Loonie Hour Community!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Canada's inflation rate ripped higher once again, hitting 7.7% year-over-year and surpassing market expectations yet the 5 year bond yield fell on the news and has been declining in recent weeks. Have we seen a top in bond yields? Price action across commodities also suggests the inflation story may now be transitioning to an economic slowdown.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.