The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more

The discussion dives into the classic debate between gold and Bitcoin. It highlights Bitcoin's fixed supply and decentralized nature, showcasing its transformative potential in modern finance. Meanwhile, the historical reliability of gold remains relevant, despite challenges like counterfeiting. The talk emphasizes the importance of security and individual sovereignty in the digital age. Listeners are encouraged to consider both assets as part of a balanced investment strategy, navigating the evolving financial landscape with informed choices.

I wanted to take a look at gold today.I’m going to dust off my powers of divination — or as they call it in the City, technical analysis - and see if we can figure out where it is going next.As things got frothy back in April, I argued that the market was probably due a breather. The summer is usually gold’s weakest season. Why this should be I don’t know, but it is. You’ll often find it makes a low in May or June, then re-tests that low in July or August, then things pick up in the autumn or fall, as our more literal cousins call it. In any case, I’m pleased to report that gold has basically range-traded, or consolidated, since the frothy days of April, between $3,500 and $3,100. The $3,000 level has more than held, which makes me wonder if we shall ever see gold with a $2,000 handle ever again. Unless there is a 2008 or Covid-style panic, I rather doubt we will.Meanwhile, the RSI (see the bottom panel below) has come off, meaning the heat has come out of the market, which is good.Since the US confiscation of Russian assets in 2022, pretty much every pull back to 50-day moving average (red line) has been bought, and they continue to be bought. The average is now flattening out, as you would expect with this summer consolidation, rather as it did late last year. Some sideways consolidation is good. Ideally, you want to see the short-, medium- and long-term moving averages all flatten and converge. There often follows a big move higher.The long-term moving averages (1 year and so on - not shown here) still have a bit of catching up to do (they are around $2,850 at the minute), which they will and fairly quickly as the gold price continues this sideways action.We also have something of a triangle forming (see blue lines) - with lower highs and higher lows. Triangles are seen as continuation patterns. In other words, whatever was the direction going into the formation will be the direction coming out. Up, that is to say. I rather think this triangle will complete just as the moving averages converge.When you look at gold against other currencies, the same process can be seen: a summer consolidation after an excellent winter and spring. If you are in any doubt as to whether you should own gold or not, let me answer that for you in the words of the former HSBC fund manager Charlie Morris, who now writes Atlas Pulse, one of the best newsletters out there - (you should subscribe it’s free). “Gold should be the cornerstone of an investment portfolio,” he says. “It is remarkable how few professional investors understand this”.Charlie may have a point. Look how underweight gold western portfolios are. Below 2%. Nuts.The Trump administration is going to run enormous deficits. It is not attempting to hide the fact. The same goes for the Starmer administration in the UK. The Labour backbenchers, who now seem to control policy, will not allow reduced spending. We saw that last week. Most EU nations have not got their spending under control. It means further declines in the purchasing power of the dollar, pound and euro are inevitable. Gold is your protection. What’s more, as demonstrated by the enormous buying coming out of Asia from Shanghai Cooperation Nations, China especially, it is clear gold is becoming a highly important strategic asset again. It is this buying, plus some huge options trading in China, that is driving this bull market, and it began shortly after, as I say, the seizure of Russian US dollar assets. Metals Daily’s Ross Norman, whose track record forecasting the gold price is second to none, tells me: “We are confident that there is significant unreported central bank gold buying which, coupled with some pretty heady options plays from within China, accounts primarily for a near doubling in the gold price over the last 18 months or so. He goes on:The days when central banks telegraphed their moves in advance in the interest of transparency are long gone (thank you Gordon) and they are far more nuanced and opportunistic in their approach. With Asian central banks very much under-weight gold reserves, and energised by a growing debt crisis, further fuelled by the trend to reduce dollar holdings and you have a perfect set-up for a continuing gold bull run. At the moment the East invests in gold while the West divests which actually sums up the last 30 years between those hemispheres.This bull market is consolidating. It is not over. Whether it’s because of de-dollarisation or your nation’s deficit spending, there is demand for gold, which is going to send the price higher. It may be an analogue asset in a digital world. But you will be glad you own it. Until next time,DominicIf buying gold or silver to protect yourself in these ‘interesting’ times, the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.Some recent articles which may be of interest: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

NB Somebody on social media is impersonating me again, sliding in to DMs, soliciting investment. Please ignore, block, report etc. Here they are on Substack.Right, here we go.Dear Chancellor Reeves“Revenue cannot be derived unless the land is productive.”— Ali ibn Abi Talib, the fourth caliphI hope you have a moment to consider what I have to say.My name is Dominic Frisby. Among other things, I am the author of a well-received book on the history of taxation, Daylight Robbery: How Tax Shaped Our Past and Will Change Our Future.I am writing to you about Stamp Duty — a tax that is causing stagnation, where you need growth.At present, if I wish to buy a house, I must first sell other assets to fund the purchase. This incurs capital gains tax. Then, on buying the property, I face another sizeable tax in the form of Stamp Duty. So I am taxed twice on the same money.The alternative is simply to stay put and do nothing, thereby paying no tax at all. Unsurprisingly, this is what most people do, which is why turnover in the housing market is so poor.How much economic activity is lost, when I stay put?* The stocks and shares I might have sold miss out on the fresh investment they would otherwise receive from their new buyer — investment so vital for businesses to grow.* All the economic activity that follows a house purchase vanishes: estate agents, conveyancing solicitors, surveyors, removals companies, builders, decorators, materials suppliers, architects, furniture shops, DIY stores.* I do not take out a new mortgage or insurance policy, nor hire tradesmen to upgrade kitchens, bathrooms or gardens, nor set up new utilities, broadband contracts or local services.* I do not trigger a purchase chain, meaning the person I would have bought from does not buy somewhere else, and all the activity that would create is lost too.* Nor do I relocate for work, missing new job opportunities, so the economy loses the productivity boost of people moving closer to better jobs.When I stay put, there is no revenue at all for the Exchequer — neither from Stamp Duty, nor from VAT on all these goods and services, nor from increased corporation tax on profits, nor from higher Income Tax on increased earnings, nor from the local spending that supports countless jobs and wages. Instead, there is stagnation where there could have been growth.Stamp Duty, largely a creation of the Tories, has immobilised the country.Britain desperately needs growth. Growth requires turnover. The best way to encourage turnover is to remove barriers to trade. Taxes — whether tariffs or duties, whatever form they take — are the biggest barriers of all.When Rishi Sunak temporarily reduced Stamp Duty during Covid, we saw exactly this effect: turnover increased, economic activity surged. Revenue to the Exchequer followed.A permanent removal of Stamp Duty would trigger a powerful boost not just to the property market but to the entire economy, meaning the government, too, would have more money to spend on whatever it sees fit. There is so much pent up demand, the resulting economic growth might even be enough to save this government at the next election.What’s more, the Tories imposed these duties, so it is an opportunity to score some points against their failure.It would, quite literally, get Britain moving again.Counter-intuitive as it may seem, the golden rule of taxation is that lower taxes and fewer taxes lead to higher revenues. History shows this time and again.In the words of John F KennedyIt is a paradoxical truth that tax rates are too high today and tax revenues are too low and the soundest way to raise the revenues in the long run is to cut the rates now.I hope you will give this serious thought.With kind regards,Yours sincerely,Dominic FrisbyPS If you enjoyed this letter, please like, share and all that stuff. It helps.You can find more on this subject in this video:Why not upgrade?If you are buying gold or silver to protect yourself in these ‘interesting’ times - and I urge you to own gold, given how governments are debasing currency - the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.Finally, ICYMI, here is this week’s mid-week piece: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comMany thanks for completing my weekend polls (here they are if you missed them: paying subscribers / non-paying). Your answers were extremely useful: roughly the right amount of content, stick with the audio, the balance of investment ideas and other stuff is about right, and the price too is about right (interestingly, paying subscribers thought that, non-paying less so — that put a smile on my face). Also: keep writing about what I know.You’re a bit more equivocal about the video content. There are more gold than bitcoin bugs in the readership, with a healthy number are in the “own both” camp.And so many of you joined my Comedy Substack, it became one of Substack Humor’s fastest movers. Yippee. Thank you!Today I am going to tell you about my seven largest investment positions.Take note: the asset allocation I advocate is the Dolce Far Niente portfolio. This is 15% in gold, 5% in bitcoin, and we have a large allocation to global equities, especially the US. It also has a 10% allocation to risky/fun investments: small caps, special situations and so on (the kind of flutters I write about here). The reason for this allocation is to minimise risk and any damage caused by losses.Do as I say, not as I do and all that. My personal allocation does not fully correspond to the Dolce Far Niente, partly for lack of discipline, partly because I have a greater appetite for risk and will stomach bad losses, if they come around, partly because I am overweight bitcoin.My largest positions As I am sure you know, my two largest positions are in bitcoin and gold. In my view everyone should have an allocation to these assets. Given the debasement of currency taking place worldwide, the greater risk is not owning them. On which note …If you want to buy gold or silver to protect yourself in these interesting times, the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. Find out more here.But we will put those to one side. After bitcoin and gold, my seven largest positions are:

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comOh, my goodness me. I don’t think I’ve ever seen volatility like it.We have a huge speculative bubble on our hands, and it’s popping.What’s more, this bubble is full of chancers, charlatans and chief executive officers.The Mail has got onto the story. That is not a good sign. If I told you ten days ago that the price of a share you just bought would rise from 6p to 40p in a week, you’d be pretty happy.Then again, if I told you on Monday that something you owned was going to drop by 60% the following day, you’d be pretty unhappy.That’s what happened with the UK-listed bitcoin treasury companies.Nobody said it would be easy.Today we are going to try and make some sense of what is going on. We have a comprehensive list of all the UK companies jumping on this nutty bandwagon. And, most importantly, we consider what to do next.Let’s start with a timely reminder: owning a speculative bitcoin treasury company is not the same as owning bitcoin. One is a crazy speculation, the other is the future money system of the world. Bitcoin treasury stocks ≠ bitcoinI hope that is clear.Now a rant.The Great British FCA Crypto FarceI’m looking at the price of Coinsilium (AQUIS:COIN) this morning. It is ranging from 60p to 30p, i.e. doubling and halving. This situation means the beloved UK market makers might be creaming off enough money to keep them in caviar and truffles for the foreseeable future, but the ordinary retail investor is getting hammered.In the course of 7 trading days, Coinsilium has gone from 6p to 90p to 30p.The bitcoin price, meanwhile, is pretty much unchanged.This situation is almost entirely a creation of the FCA, with its decision to “protect” UK investors from the dangers of cryptocurrencies. That protection began in 2020 when bitcoin was $5,000. Today it’s $105,000. That’s a $100,000 per coin increase—a 21x or 2,000% gain—UK investors were protected from.Remember UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak spinning his “Britcoin” BS?“It’s my ambition to make the UK a global hub for cryptoasset technology, and the measures we’ve outlined today will help to ensure firms can invest, innovate and scale up in this country.We want to see the businesses of tomorrow – and the jobs they create – here in the UK, and by regulating effectively we can give them the confidence they need to think and invest long-term.This is part of our plan to ensure the UK financial services industry is always at the forefront of technology and innovation.”Nobody told the FCA! How was any of that even remotely possible when the FCA had banned the sale of crypto derivatives to UK consumers, and effectively regulated cryptoasset technology out of existence in the UK?Did the two departments even speak before he trotted out that rollocks?Of course they didn’t. They are different departments.It’s as though the UK government is inherently incompetent.Remember UK Chancellor George Osborne publicising himself buying bitcoin at an ATM? The FCA made ATMs illegal.Remind me. Who voted for the FCA? Or indeed Ofcom? Or Ofsted?Why do these bodies have such extraordinary power?It’s enough to make you a libertarian.In any case, we now have this situation of extraordinary pent-up demand, built up over many years, with hundreds of billions of pounds in ISAs and pensions wanting exposure. The result is this insane volatility in UK bitcoin treasury companies.Smarter Web Company (AQUS:SWC) went from 2.5p to above 600p, giving it a market cap over a billion. It has just £45 million in assets. Great work, FCA.Today it’s sitting just below 300p.Japan has similarly prohibitive anti-bitcoin regulations, and has thereby created the market leader in this second wave of bitcoin treasury companies, Metaplanet (3350:TYO). (Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) was the leader in phase one.)The Japanese company announced this week that it has raised another $500 million, with which it is going to pay down its 0% debt and buy more bitcoins. Why is it paying down its debt? Presumably to clean up its balance sheet so it can raise further capital on better terms to buy more bitcoin (it has targeted 1% of total supply, which would be 210,000 bitcoin). The Japanese market is starved of bitcoin access. Metaplanet is exploiting this situation.Despite a flat bitcoin price, there was a worldwide sell-off of treasury companies starting on Monday. The sell-off coincided, as these things always seem to, with coverage in the mainstream press. In this case, the Mail marked the top with a piece on the Smarter Web Company.Pretty much all the treasury sh1tcos are now down 50–70%. Is that it? Game over? Or was that just phase one?I’ve seen this play out many times over the years. I’ve seen it with uranium sh1tcos in 2006, gold junkcos, silver rubbishcos, graphite flybynights, helium hotaircos and moreIt doesn’t take a genius to work out where all this is going, and a lot of people are going to make a lot of money. A lot more are going to lose a lot of money. These things are not necessarily going to zero - they will have bitcoin on their balance sheet. But when bitcoin has one of its biennial corrections, they are going to get crucified.But we are also going to see a new corporate model emerge as a result.It’s dotcom, basically. But which companies will be the Amazons and Microsofts? And which are Pets.com and ClickMango?Every day we are hearing news of another company “pivoting” - who invented that awful word? - into a bitcoin treasury company. It is all happening very quickly.Here’s a list of the UK companies getting in on the game. Then we will look at what to do next .Meet the Players. Should I say, '‘Monkeys”?In addition to Smarter Web Company (AQUIS:SWC) and Coinsilium (AQUIS:COIN) we have:

I am writing today’s dispatch from Prague Airport, on my way back to Blighty.What a splendid city Prague is, and what a lovely bunch the Czechs are.It feels like this is still very much a high-trust society. Twice I left my bag in public places – full of very nickable laptop, passport and other gubbins – and both times I came back to find my bag untouched, but safely put to one side. At night the city felt safe. It was very clean – I actually started looking out for litter and I couldn’t see any anywhere, whether in the centre or the suburbs, where I was staying. I always think litter – or lack thereof – is a good indicator of how much people really care about their surroundings, how loyal to and invested in their area they feel, and, indeed, how well brought up they are.The Czechs were lovely: polite, hard-working, respectful, full of ambition and drive, and good looking.The story is that Hitler went to university in Prague and loved the place that so much that, when the Nazis invaded in 1939, he ordered that the city should not be bombed but preserved. I heard the story last time I was here, and heard it again this time. But then I just fact-checked this story and apparently it is total rollocks - Hitler never went to university anywhere, nor did he visit Prague. Perhaps the city survived because the Czechs decided not put up any resistance, so the Nazis went unopposed, which meant they didn’t need to bomb anything.In any case, the city is preserved and you can feel the history as you stroll about the stunning centre. It makes you cry for all the cities that did get flattened in WWII and the memories that disappeared with them.The food was lovely. So was the beer. I even had a couple. All in all, travel, board and lodging cost half of what they do in London, I’d say, at a guess.Just as I did last time I was here, I came away enamoured with the place, feeling that I must come back soon.As for the conference itself, BTC Prague, there were a few GenXers and Boomers – including my new friends Larry Lepard (check out his book), James Lavish (check out his fund) and George Bodine (check out his art) – as well as myself – but 85%+ of attendees were under 50, I’d say, with a large chunk under 30.If you are young, starting out and wondering what to do, I would urge you to get involved with the Bitcoin movement. There are so many different ways to do so, depending on where your talents, skills or interests lie. You can be artist, scientist or journalist, engineer, entrepreneur, traveller or surfer-dude. It really doesn’t matter. You’ll find a path that suits you. It all feels so dynamic and full of opportunity. It’s brim full of doers. Everyone is so supportive. There is plenty of capital to invest. You can make quick progress.Another thing to note: there are a lot of extremely clever people in this movement. Average IQ levels in Bitcoin are, I’ve little doubt, much higher than you typically find elsewhere.Conversation, naturally, was dominated with talk of the bitcoin treasury companies, and the incredible price action we are seeing there. To use the baseball analogy, which innings of 9 are we in? I generally made the case that we are in perhaps 5 or 6, with Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) in 2020 having been innings one. Some of the old-timers - who, it has to be said, have missed this particular wave - dismissed it as the ICO or DEFI craze of this cycle. They may have a point.But James Van Straten, the bright young mind behind the transformation of Coinsilium (AQUIS:COIN), told me in no uncertain terms that, as far as the UK is concerned, ball one of innings one has only just be thrown. There is £1.2 trillion of capital in UK pensions and ISAs and, thanks to the FCAs anti-bitcoin rulings, several years of pent-up demand. We shall see.What’s different between this and ICO/DeFi madness is that the bitcoin treasury companies are holding something real and strong, while the narrative is only just getting going.People were very kind about my presentation, and I got asked to do a second one the following day, which I hurriedly wrote. I’ll share both with you as soon as I get the vids, but my main arguments were:* With the changing nature of the global workforce, the rise of the gig and freelance worker, especially the digital nomad (billions of people will soon be on the move), demand for borderless money and portable wealth is inevitably going to grow.* Save strong currencies; spend weak ones.* By investing in bitcoin (the currency), you benefit from the cumulative, combined IQ of everyone involved in Bitcoin (the movement).* With such extraordinary potential, the risk is not so much owning bitcoin as not owning it.As you would expect from someone with my chequered past, I threw in lots of jokes as well.Join this amazing movement.But the main event was the Michael Saylor presentation on Saturday afternoon.My goodness me, the 60-year-old former aerospace engineer has become a rock star. He was mobbed. He stood there in the entrance hall, patiently smiling for 90 minutes, with a circle of people around him 10-deep, all wanting selfies. The frenzy did not relent, and eventually his bodyguards had to usher him away so he could prepare for his presentation.That same presentation will no doubt be doing the rounds on the internet over the next few days, and I urge you to watch it, but I will summarise his main points here.Saylor, his usual intense, charismatic self, first observed just how far bitcoin has come over the past 12 months. Up about 70%, it has, yet again, outperformed gold, bonds, stocks and real estate. The White House has said it wants to make the US the bitcoin capital of the world. The new US administration is extremely pro-bitcoin – he went through the key players one by one. With the ETFs and increasing institutional adoption, bitcoin is altogether more normalised and legit.He spoke about how he wished he had got involved in 2013, when he first heard about bitcoin, rather than in 2020, but he also made the point that bitcoin still only makes up less than 1% of global capital and that this share will inevitably grow. 99% of global capital doesn’t know about it yet and so, even buying now, you’re ahead of 99% of capital.Then he began to speak about where this growing monetary network is going. Bitcoin will continue to outperform stocks, gold, bonds and real estate, as it inevitably grows to occupy a larger slice of the global capital pie. Twenty-one years from now, it’s going to be $21 million a coin, he said. There is, therefore, an opportunity to change the destiny of your family for generations to come. You create the future, he said.To deal with the drawdowns and the crypto winters, be like a seasick sailor: keep your eyes on the horizon. On the bigger picture. Saylor outlined several strategies to grow your bitcoin position and showed how rich each would make you in 21 years. The lowest-risk method is to dollar cost average (DCA) – buy a set amount each month and each year. But to increase your gains, use leverage. Use it wisely of course: keep interest payments low, fixed and long duration. Otherwise, you risk debt servitude and will end up with nothing.The principle is to borrow weak currencies, which lose value, and use the money to buy the strongest currency of the lot, which will inevitably gain in value. The gains you make will be extraordinary.I urge you to watch the presentation when it comes out, as he details the different strategies – and then shows the different outcomes.Using:* DCA* Leverage* DCA + leverage* In the case of companies, issuing stock to buy bitcoin* Issuing stock and using DCA + leverageIt will turn you into a total bitcoin head, I guarantee.But that’s all for today.I’ll be back mid-week with more commentary. I’m attending Swen Lorenz’s Weird Sh1t Investing Conference on Tuesday so there will no doubt be lots of good ideas in there. I’ll also update you on my conversation the day before yesterday with Eric Semler, Chairman of bitcoin treasury company, Semlar Scientific (NASDQ:SMLR). Semlar has been eclipsed in performance by the (once) smallcap UK bitcoin treasury companies - Smarter Web Company (AQUIS:SWC), Consillium (AQIS:COIN) and Helium Ventures (AQUIS:HEV.PL), but it is lower risk and better value given it is trading at the actual value of its bitcoin holdings and looks set to enjoy a decent run should bitcoin catch a bid.If you enjoyed this article, please like, share - all that stuff. It helps.Until next time,DominicPS Here’s this week’s commentary in case you missed it:DisclaimerI am not regulated by the FCA or any other body as a financial advisor, so anything you read above does not constitute regulated financial advice. It is an expression of opinion only. Tech stocks are famously risky, , so please do your own due diligence and if in any doubt consult with a financial advisor. Markets go down as well as up. I do not know your personal financial circumstances, only you do, but never speculate with money you can’t afford to lose. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comI am travelling to the bitcoin conference in Prague this week - come say hi if you’re there - so you are likely to get a lot of bitcoin-related content over the next fortnight, as I re-indoctrinate myself.Indeed, we are talking bitcoin and gold today — and we start with this.The Bitcoin Treasury BoomUK-listed Coinsilium (AQUIS:COIN), as flagged last Sunday, is jumping on the bitcoin treasury bandwagon. It has risen over 600% in the 10 days since I covered it. It was 6p. Now it's over 40p. Its market cap it £135 million. It only owns 25 bitcoins. (Worth around £2 million).Nuts. But there you go.I have taken my original stake off the table. I’ll let the rest run, as I think it will. Its recently announced placement was four times oversubscribed.Bitcoin treasury companies are the new sh1tcoins. There will soon be more of them than there are sh1tcoins, the way things are going. It will probably all end in tears - for which we will have the FCA to thank, because it has outlawed investors from buying bitcoin ETFs and the like - but, while the music is playing, we dance. The other possibility, of course, is that productive companies follow the zombie company lead, at which point the entire corporate financial model changes. Every company becoms a bitcoin treasury company. I actually think there’s a good chance of this happening, and I’ll explain why in a moment.But let me just remind you — and myself — that owning a bitcoin treasury company is not the same as owning bitcoin. It’s a speculation, a substitute, but it’s not the same.(BTW I bought some bitcoin with Revolut the other day, and I found the process very simple - though I quickly sent the money to another, safer wallet. Strike and CoinCorner are other UK options.)The non-US bitcoin treasury plays are doing better than the US, which is interesting. Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) and Semler (NASDAQ:SMLR), for example, are not moving. (They will if bitcoin breaks to new highs above $110,000, as it is trying to do, but for now it’s all about the UK and Japan, and the dumb regulations that have created this situation).Gold Is Now Number TwoThis week has seen something of a landmark development, meanwhile. Gold has overtaken the euro to become the second-most held asset by central banks. 20% of central bank reserves are now held in gold, against 16% in euros.Also of considerable note — and largely unreported — US dollar holdings have fallen below 50% for the first time in almost 30 years. They now sit at 46%. De-dollarisation is happening, folks, right in front of our eyes.If you are enjoying this post, please like it, share it and all that stuff. Thank you.This 20% gold figure compares with just 10% ten years ago. I’ve little doubt this will double again over the next 10 years - and we’ll be at 40%.Even ECB Chief Lizard, Christine Lagarde, has noticed. “The accumulation of gold by central banks continued at a record pace,” she says. “Some countries have been actively exploring alternatives to traditional cross-border payment systems.”That last sentence is telling. It further confirms what we all knew was happening. It’s not just as a store of value that the US dollar’s central role is subsiding, but as a medium of exchange.Gold is reclaiming its historical role as a core international holding. Make sure you own some.If you are buying gold or silver to protect yourself in these ‘interesting’ times, the dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. Find out more here.In the same press release Lagarde says:“Offering solutions for settling wholesale financial transactions recorded on distributed ledger technology platforms in central bank money will increase the efficiency of European financial markets and the global appeal of the euro.”That’s reptilian speak for “the euro CBDC is coming soon”. The EU CBDC Beast could begin as soon as this year. It will be rolled out first at the institutional level. Then it will be forced on the minions (which I don’t think will work, by the way, for reasons explained [here] — but that doesn’t mean they won’t try).Turning to what might prove the Big Kahuna.The Real Crisis: Government Spending Can’t StopWe have another rapidly developing plotline, and this announcement was widely overlooked by the press - probably on government orders, but perhaps because, as Occam’s Razor would have it, they’re thick. It is, in my view, a highly significant development, and is going to open the door to a ton of money-printing.

I have a friend — we’ll call him Steve. Steve’s a comedian — a very good one. He started around the same time as me, maybe a bit later. Back in the day, we all thought Steve was going to be a huge star. If there were any justice in the world, he would have been. But there isn’t. We all know that. Steve ended up one of those many jobbing, circuit comedians, with a brilliant act — good enough to storm pretty much any room under any circumstances — but who never seemed to get beyond the circuit. There are plenty of unknown, but brilliant acts like Steve, believe me.Maybe he didn’t have the right mindset — I don’t know. If you want my opinion, I think he over-thought things. But what do I know?Steve was always interested in investing and, in his spare time (comedians have plenty of that) he began speculating with his earnings. Steve liked to do things properly, and investing was no different. He studied hard, researched, read loads, watched videos, listened to podcasts, scrutinised company reports and accounts, evaluated the fundamentals. He did everything you’re supposed to do.It didn’t work out. Steve lost money. Consistently. Bad choices dogged him.As Covid took hold in 2020, Steve took stock of his 20 years on the circuit. Where was he was in life? What he had achieved?Just as he never broke out of the circuit, Steve had never broken into the higher tax bracket either. Despite scrupulous and honest accounting, he had never once made it beyond the basic band. He had no property — which, for a man closing in on 50, was unimpressive. He had very little in the way of savings, even though he was frugal. No pension. The comedy circuit was already in recession. Now Covid had shut it down. Things were looking bleak.Then Steve started watching Michael Saylor videos.Michael Saylor is the billionaire genius Chairman of Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) who, amidst all the money printing during Covid, was trying to protect his corporate treasury from erosion by inflation. This led him to bitcoin, which he embraced. He became one of its most articulate proponents, while his company — which had been all but dormant, share-price-wise, for 20 years — suddenly took off like a rocket. He gave birth to the bitcoin treasury model that is becoming so widespread today.Everything Saylor said made sense to Steve. Not only that — it chimed with him. Bitcoin is stored energy. Investing in bitcoin is like buying Apple, Amazon, Google, or Facebook a decade ago. They’re all dominant technology networks, so destined to grow. The more you obsess over timing the market, the more mistakes you make. The best strategy is to buy bitcoin and wait. It will have a market cap in the multi-trillions. All that stuff.Steve had known about bitcoin for many years. But he never invested. He bought shares in Lloyds instead.He changed tack. He decided he was going to do for himself what Saylor had done for Strategy.He began buying bitcoin with any spare cash he had. In his ISA, he bought Strategy.He started bitcoin wallets for his nephews, nieces, and godchildren and bought them small amounts of bitcoin on their birthdays and at Christmas.Something unlikely happened: Steve’s investments started going up.By now he was obsessing over Michael Saylor videos. Watching and rewatching them. Finding old interviews and presentations and marvelling at the consistency of message — and Saylor’s extraordinary gift for spotting and riding technological trends.“There’s not a single interview that man has done that I haven’t watched,” Steve told me the other day.Steve sold every stock he owned. He couldn’t buy bitcoin through his broker — thanks, FCA — so he bought Strategy instead, then other bitcoin treasury companies, last year, including the amazing Metaplanet.Meanwhile, everything he earned he sent straight to an exchange and converted to bitcoin. Only the bare essentials he needed to cover that month’s bills did he keep in fiat. Steve turned his entire personal operation into a bitcoin treasury.What’s more, he didn’t told anyone he’d done this. Except with me — because he knows I know and love bitcoin.He doesn’t mind when bitcoin sells off — it just means he can buy more on the cheap. He thinks it is inevitable — because of its superior technology — that bitcoin becomes the world’s dominant money system. That individuals, corporations and countries will store their capital in bitcoin, rather than fiat, so they do not suffer erosion by inflation (which is inevitable, because governments everywhere are incapable of reining in their spending — even with Elon Musk in charge).He just keeps on accumulating, keeps on watching Saylor vids, and keeps on keeping his head down.There are lots of people like Steve. I read about them every day. I just met a load out here at Freedom Fest in California.I’m headed to BTC Prague next week. I know I’ll meet a load more there. (If you’re in Prague, by the way, come say hi. And if you’re thinking of going, you can get 10% off tickets using code FRISBY)I’ve said it before and I say it again, if you save in strong currencies, and spend in weak ones, you will change your social status — you don’t have to earn a lot of money to do thatI saw Steve the other day. I’ve never seen him happier (except after he’s just stormed a gig). Guess what? He’s now in a position, just four years later, where he can buy a house. That’s what his girlfriend wants him to do. How about that for a transformation.You really should subscribe to this amazing publication.Only problem is: that would mean selling some of his bitcoin.If only there were vehicles by which you could borrow against your bitcoin … That’s the next chapter in this extraordinary story: borrow against your bitcoin, spend in fiat, keep the asset. Trouble is, if you’re in the UK — you won’t be able to. Because FCAThanks very much for reading this. If you enjoyed it, please like, share - all that stuff - it helps.Until next time,DominicPS Don’t forget my brilliant book about bitcoin, if you want to learn more about the space. I hear the audiobook is very good indeed. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comGreetings to you from Palm Springs, California,Something most unusual is happening in financial markets, the like of which I haven’t seen for years.Junior mining companies are behaving well.Silver is going up. Platinum is going up.It feels like a proper bull market.These things have been utter dogs for years. So cripes — is this overdue or what. It had reached the point where I never thought I’d see a bull market in these things again in my lifetime.It’s worth noting that this phenomenon seems largely confined to precious metals.The base metals are not seeing the same price action.By way of reference, here is platinum. It has gone off like a rocket. Almost 40% in two months.And long-time readers who held onto platinum pick Tharisa (THS.L) are starting to see that come back to life, thank goodness.Typically, you would expect to see platinum trading at 1.25 times the gold price — $4,000/oz in other words. At the moment it’s $1,250, so there is plenty of future potential in that particular market.Silver, meanwhile, if it can get above $37, where there is some historical resistance, I think goes back to $50.Here’s the long-term silver chart, which is looking remarkably symmetrical. We’re butted up against resistance now, as you can see. After that the next line is at $44 — but if it gets to $44, I think it goes to $50.If that happens, those who hold silver miners — particularly my favourite junior producer — are going to make a lot of money. 🙂But, as I say, this is, for now, a precious metals thing. Copper doesn’t look too bad, but zinc, tin, lead, iron ore — they’re all either flat or falling.If you are buying gold or silver, the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. Find out more here.Gold, meanwhile, is consolidating above $3,300/oz, while the miners and other precious metals play catch up.How about that for a chart. Talk about trend!Let’s take a closer look at my two largest holdings.I think both these junior gold plays are buys by the way, one of them in particular.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comLet me quickly flag three things: * There is a short note at the end of this piece on the subject of bitcoin treasury companies, which I know is of interest to some of you. * We now have a video version of last week’s thought piece about the housing market. * I am in Palm Springs, California, all next week. If any readers from that neck of the woods fancy meeting up, I’ll be performing at the Punching Up Comedy Night with Adam Carolla, Thai Rivera and Lou Perez, and also doing various panels at Freedom Fest on gold and bitcoin. You should be able to find me via this QR code. Or send me an email or message.Right, gold … today we ask: Should you invest in gold collectibles?The gold at the Museo del Oro in Bogotá, Colombia, is one of the most stunning collections you will ever see – diadems, helmets and crowns, rings, necklaces and bracelets, beads and breastplates, even fishhooks and penis covers. The smiths of ancient South and Central America were quite brilliant artisans. The Spaniards who saw their work said Aztec goldsmiths were more skilled than their European counterparts.In Mexico, the conquistadors found life-size figures of men and women, great jars and pitchers, half pottery-half gold vases sculpted in relief with birds, animals and insects, and more. In Peru and Ecuador, the conquistadors found miniature gardens made of gold – earth of gold granules, gold cornstalks, and gold figures of men and llamas.Unfortunately, what sits in the Museo del Oro is just a fraction of what was made. The Spaniards valued bullion on weight alone, ascribing no value to art, beauty or workmanship. Most got melted down before being sent home. What they sent to their king intact got melted down once back in Europe. “What was being destroyed was more perfect than anything they enjoyed and possessed,” said a young priest travelling with the conquistador Francisco Pizarro.The conquistadors were by no means alone in this. It has happened repeatedly through history. Though gold may last, art made from gold rarely does. People always seem to melt it down. That should mean ancient gold workings should command an even higher premium for their antiquity, because they have survived the meltdown risk. But for some reason, it doesn’t seem to work like that.You can’t destroy gold, as I’m sure you know. It lasts forever and never loses its shine. It was present in the dust that formed the solar system, and sits in the Earth’s crust today, just as it did when our planet was formed some 4.6 billion years ago.That means that little bit of gold you may be wearing on your finger or around your neck is actually older than the Earth itself. In fact, it is older than the solar system. Who knows? It might once have adorned a pharaoh or sat in a conquistador’s treasure chest. Gold may be antique, but it’s very rare that you get vast premiums for its antique value.Buying gold or silver? The dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. Find out more here.The gold coinage that never wasIf you buy a gold sovereign minted recently, you would typically pay £600 to £630. For a Victorian sovereign minted 150 years ago or more – which has the same gold content – you would pay £660 to £680. So, for all that history and antique value, you pay just 10%. Sovereigns are not uncommon. A billion are thought to have been struck. So you get little rarity value. But even so, you’d think you would get more of a premium.The main exception is the 1937 sovereign struck for Edward VIII. Since he abdicated a few weeks before the coins were struck, they were never circulated. They are often called the “coinage that never was”, and only a few were ever minted. One sold in 2020 for £1 million. That’s quite the premium. But this is rare.About ten years ago, I picked up a Justinian solidus, minted in 600AD – the solidus was the dominant coin of the Mediterranean after the Roman aureus. I got it for a 20% premium to the spot value of the metal. And I bought it from a shop in W1, so I was paying the Mayfair premium too.An ingot recovered from the SS Central America, which famously sank off the Carolina coast in 1857 carrying Californian gold to New York (and triggered a financial panic because so much bullion was lost), recently went up for auction. It weighed 649 ounces, but it was only 21-carat gold (.875 purity). If melted down, you would have 568 ounces of pure gold, which, at today’s price of $3,300 per ounce, would have a spot value of $1.9 million. It sold for $2.1 million, including the buyer’s premium – little more than the spot value, in other words.Antique gold very rarely catches the huge premium you might think it deserves. Beware graded coinsUnscrupulous coin dealers will often try to flog you graded coins. If a dealer tells you that some recent sovereign, for example, is extremely rare, that it was one of the last coins minted under Queen Elizabeth II, or some such, and that it has been graded and has a special certificate and blah blah... and it therefore carries a huge premium, they are trying to pull a sly one.The reality is that the extra premium paid is almost impossible to claw back when you come to sell. In almost all cases, they are trying to rip you off. Don’t pay a premium for graded coins.A dealer might buy a large stock of coins from the Royal Mint. Coins are often of a slightly different quality. Dealers then send them off and pay a small fee to get them graded according to their “Mint State”. The scale ranges from MS-60 to MS-70, with MS-70 being a perfect, flawless coin. They then charge a large premium for coins with high grades, even though they barely paid any premium when they bought the coins.The margins when dealing in gold are on the slim side – sometimes just a few percent. But if they get an additional premium for the rarity, that margin can rise to 100%. No wonder there are so many unscrupulous salesman trying to flog graded coins.Fractional coins – quarter or half sovereigns, for example – or older coins do trade at a higher (though not enormous) premium. These can trade for 15 - 20% above the spot value of the gold content. But you are likely to get that back when you sell.You are not buying gold to try and be clever and hope that your coin gets some kind of rarity value. In most cases, that will not happen. There are clever people who know this market better than you already playing this game. Don’t get involved is my advice. Your priority is to get as much gold for your money as possible. You are buying gold to preserve purchasing power, not to lose it.This article was first published in MoneyWeek's magazine. Some developments in the bitcoin treasury company story - a new kid on the block