The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comIt was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us …Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities, 1859There is a video version of this article here, if you prefer.Here is the world I think we are heading into over the next couple of years.On one side of the Atlantic, we have Argentina and its new president, Javier Milei, taking a chainsaw to the state in every conceivable way. I was there last month and I fell head over heels in love with the place. Every day it seems another state body is having its budget cut.It’s like everything I argued for all those years ago in Life After the State - Why We Don’t Need Government is suddenly happening in the real world, and it is wonderful.The result of all this is an economic boom that is starting to take everyone’s breath away – even free market acolytes are surprised.You must invest in Argentina. You must have a position. What is happening there is equivalent to Eastern Europe after the fall of Communism, China at the turn of the 21st century, or the UK and US at the beginning of the Reagan-Thatcher era.With libertarianism being the dominant belief system of the Internet, and Milei, the poster boy for anarcho-capitalism, an internet sensation, you can rest assured that Argentina’s success story is not going to be kept a secret. The Internet is going to let everyone know about it.Then to the north, we have the USA. Who was the first foreign leader to be invited to meet President-elect Donald Trump? You betcha. It was Javier Milei. That tells us where things are going.We have passionate libertarians Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy taking the knife to government and the deep state – I cannot emphasise enough how gripping a belief system libertarianism is once it takes hold - look what it’s done to me - and it has clearly taken hold of these two.We also have a Trump administration that is much more organised and wiser than the previous incarnation, as well as more state shrinking. It knows who its enemies are and it seems ready for them.The US may be “minarchist-light” compared to Argentina, but even so, an economic boom is coming to this most entrepreneurial of countries. A lot of people are going make a lot of money.So you must also have a position in the US. It is already the world’s biggest economy. How much is it going to grow with so many bureaucratic barriers of state removed?The Stagnant Side of the StreetThen we turn to the other side of the Atlantic. “The stagnant side of the street” to misquote the song.Here in the UK, we have gone the other way. We are increasing taxes. We are increasing state spending. We are growing government, and, in doing so, creating more barriers to innovation, invention, and entrepreneurship. Most of Western Europe is the same. These are countries run by blobs, by regulators and planners for regulators and planners, by technocrats who know better than you.Here’s an example of the government helping. On 6 October 2020, when the FCA announced it was clamping down, bitcoin was $10,000. Today it's $97,500. I make that $87,500 per coin of gain that the UK citizen has been protected from. Great job guys. The UK was once at the vanguard of this breakthrough technology. Satoshi used English spelling, he quoted the Times. He may well have been British. Now we are bringing up the rear.It is just so much harder and more expensive to do anything entrepreneurial in the UK, whether it’s setting up a business in the first place, hiring, the taxes you have to pay, the cost of regulation and compliance, or the exorbitant cost of housing and property, which drains capital that could be better invested elsewhere.Buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times? I urge you to. My recommended bullion dealer is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.Prime Minister Keir Starmer is currently in the Gulf trying, as he says, to secure investment for the UK. “This government will build on partnerships that drive our mission to kickstart economic growth and put money back in working people's pockets,” he said yesterday. It’s obvious that he thinks economic growth comes from government rather than the private sector. He actually thinks government spending is going to help. He does not realize because spending inevitably leads to higher taxes, and taxes stifle growth.I bet if you listed ten businesses and said which of these are wealth-creating and which are just wealth-extracting, he would not know the difference: it is not a thought process his mind would ever entertain. Yet the difference between the two is everything. Subsidised green energy is wealth extracting, compliance is wealth extracting, manufacturing (as long as it’s not wind farms) and tech are mostly wealth creating. One builds wealth that did not previously exist - everybody wins - making stuff, growing stuff - the other is zero sum: it extracts wealth that already exists and sends it somewhere else - only the extractor and the recipient win. The guy who built the wealth in the first place loses. The most basic rule of taxation – you really should read Daylight Robbery – is that higher taxes and higher tax rates do not lead to greater government revenue. This administration does not get that most basic concept, which has existed for as long as there have been taxes (ie all of civilization). How can they be so stupid I’ve no idea, but they lead us.To invest in the UK is to invest in stagnation and regulation. That is not proper investment or wealth creation.The rest of Western Europe is no better.In addition, we are experiencing colossal levels of discontent, unprecedented migration, two-tiered justice, two-tiered welfare, rising crime, the disappearance of previously high-trust societies, and rising social tension.But thanks to the Internet, the stupidities of UK and European policies will continue to be laid bare to all. No amount of censorship is going to hide it. In any case, X has already killed censorship. Other platforms must now stop censoring, if they want to stay relevant. On the Internet people gravitate where speech is free-est.Meanwhile, such is the nature of memes, people are going to relentlessly take the piss, especially from the other side of the pond. Comedy is a powerful tool. Day after day, the meme-makers, led by Elon Musk himself, are going to expose Keir Starmer and his deluded team, never mind the EU and other technocrats, for the fools they are. The exposure the Internet brings will cause this technocratic left to backpedal a little – Starmer, as we saw from his 19th relaunch speech last week, has already started – though it will not be anywhere near enough. We need our own Javier Milei. But it is all is only going to exacerbate the current trend: long America, short the UK and Europe.So What To Do Now?I ran into one of the UK’s most successful investors at a party last week. He told me he has moved everything he can out of sterling and out of the UK.

If you are looking for some entertaining Christmas presents, we have some celebratory “One of the 17 Million” Brexit mugs, my new album and other goodies for sale in the Dominic Frisby Shop. Take a look. Something positive for you this Sunday morning - and why we should be grateful for government incompetenceThe idea of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), money that governments and their planners will be able to programme, rightly fills many of us with an Orwellian sense of dread.“Did you not have the vaccine? Oh, well then you don’t qualify for the next payment.”“Have you been saying wrong things on social media? Then you don’t get the good loan rates.”“We suspect that you might not have paid the right rate of tax, therefore we are deducting what we think you owe and it’s up to you to prove otherwise. You want the money back? Please hold …. Your call is important to us.”CBDCs allow for almost unimaginable interference in our lives, intrusions on our privacy and liberty, never mind meddling in the economy. Chinese social credit scores would be just the start of it.When you combine the instincts of, say, the current Labour administration to intervene, together with its incompetence, the ramifications are truly horrifying.Some say CBDCs are inevitable. Technology is destiny and all that. I’m a bit more optimistic. Hete’s why.CBDCs have been piloted in numerous countries and fully implemented in:* The Bahamas - the "Sand Dollar"* Nigeria - the "eNaira"* Jamaica - "JAM-DEX"* The Eastern Caribbean Currency UnionNowhere has got them to work. The Bahamas is generally touted as the CBDC success story. My buddy, Dave Skarica, who lives there says, “LOL. I have never seen one person use it.”Why have they failed? People don’t use them. When they do use them, they don’t work. People prefer the legacy systems they know.CBDCs are yet another government IT project that is doomed to fail.If you are thinking of buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times, I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.You might say the internet was a government IT project. It was . The U.S. government - via ARPA and later DARPA - provided crucial funding that led to the development of key protocols like TCP/IP. But the Internet succeeded because of the immense infrastructure that millions of people, mostly working in their own self-interest, since built over many decades on top of it.Our modern system of debt-based fiat money should long since have imploded under the weight of all the abuse and debasement successive governments have heaped upon it. But it has survived, indeed thrived as a medium of exchange, albeit a terrible store of wealth, because of the incredible fintech architecture that has been built on top of it, again by millions of people over many decades mostly acting in their own self-interest. That architecture is probably what has saved the system. Fiat money is just promissory - worse than that it is a promise of something that isn’t even there - but the incredible advances in communication technology that we have seen in the last 150 years - telecommunications, digital technology and all the rest of it - have all enabled the sending and recording of those promises. The fortunes that have been invested have all helped the system evolve and indeed preserved it.Fiat money worked as countries gradually abandoned gold standards over the course of the 20th century because they were the only currencies citizens knew. The payment and saving infrastructure was already built and normalised. The coins and notes and cheques and bank accounts all functioned perfectly well, and there were no alternatives. The removal of the gold backing did not really impact the overall architecture.Government currencies worked in the first place because they were based on gold and silver, which everybody already used and instinctively knew had value. When they weren’t debasing their money, rulers, or those working for them, often actually improved the system: coinage, for example, certified the amount of precious metal in a coin and the ruler’s stamp legitimised it. Money was based on something people already knew and used and understood. Not so CBDCs. They have no existing infrastructure around them, nor is their use normal. Governments will not be able to design anything decent. They will need the private sector to do that, and this will take many years, perhaps decades before it gets as good as the infrastructure around existing payment systems. It would also take many years and lots of nudges for people to change habitsThe private sector is not going to invest the required amount of money in payment systems if people are not going to use it, so you will end up with a situation, a bit like green energy, where governments will have to spend billions subsidising it in order to make it work, but the actual energy you get is not as good as that provided by fossil fuels: unreliable, more expensive and more damaging to the environment. There will not be the same green arguments - 10 years to save the planet and all that - to justify the spending. The scope for corruption and crony capitalism will be enormous. Again.You really should subscribe.None of this will stop governments trying it, of course. Citizens might slowly start to use the system, particularly if they get free handouts, but it will be a long time before CBDCs reach a level where they compete with existing payment systems. At this point fiat money as we now know it probably won’t exist anyway. We tend to forget, but most nations as we currently know them are only about 200 years old. Many won’t exist in 50 or 100 years time. They’ll go bankrupt and break apart. What will happen to their money?There is the possibility of demanding that taxes are paid in CBDCs, I suppose, but again this opens up so much scope for outcry, waste and inefficiency, I just can’t see it working.People within the blob look at bitcoin and admire it and think they can copy it, but even bitcoin is what it is, not so much because of Satoshi Nakamoto’s genius invention, but because of the way hundreds of thousands of people in the free market embraced it and built on top of it. The reason they did was, again, self-interest: the value of bitcoin kept going up. Every bit of bitcoin fintech, every podcast, every tweet - every transaction. They all help the bitcoin price. It’s a colossal open-source contribution and movement. There is not the same incentive with CBDCs. Their value is never going to go up. Quite the opposite. Their value will fall as governments issue more and more of them. There is not the same incentive.To have any chance of working, CBDCs will require billions and billions of subsidy. Most governments do not have the resources. They are already bankrupt. They will struggle to justify the expense. Health or welfare or pensions or something will be deemed more important. Plus they will meet with huge resistance from the freedom-fighters and possibly even the media .None of this will stop them trying of course. But on this issue at least you can sleep soundly. CBDCs are one Orwellian nightmare that is not going to work. They will end up yet another failed government IT project.All ye from the future look back on this ‘ere prescient article and marvel at my foresight.If you are interested in this subject, take a look at my song, Programmable Money.Tell your friends about this amazing article.A reminder about those mugs, my album and other fun Christmas presents - all for sale in the Dominic Frisby Shop. Take a look. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

“If once you have paid him the Dane-geld, You never get rid of the Dane.”Rudyard KiplingThe winter of 406-407 was bitterly cold across Europe. The Rhine froze over, enabling hordes of Vandals, Alans - I love the fact that there was a tribe of Alans - and Suebi to make their way across the river, and into the Roman empire. They were violent with hunger, from the cold and greedy for what they had admired for so long on the other side.The response from Rome was slow, weak and inadequate.In Britain, Rome had already lost the north and west to warlords. The Roman armies in Britain, who, at best, had been paid with debased money, feared these Germanic tribes would cross into Britain next, so, led by Constantine III, who declared himself “Western Roman Emperor”, they made their way across the Channel and into Gaul, leaving ‘Britannia’ to fend for itself. We do not really know if it was Rome that gave up Britain, or Britain that gave up Rome, but, either way, the Dark Ages had well and truly begun.Gold , silver and bronze coins had been widespread under the Romans. They were used to pay taxes, and often re-minted to pay the army and the civil service. But after Constantine III’s departure, few coins were either minted or imported. Judging by the numerous hoards found from the period, many people buried their money - presumably to keep it safe in this unruly new environment of no military protection and merciless invasion from Angles, Saxons and other tribes from the continent. With the lack of new supply, existing coins were re-used. Clipping - cutting off the edges to steal metal - became widespread. The previously vigorous late Roman monetary system crumbled. It was not for another 200 years that minting properly started up again.The Anglo-Saxon invaders initially used gold more for adornment rather than as currency. Though there are examples of earlier Anglo-Saxon coins, King Eadbald of Kent was the first Anglo-Saxon whose name we actually know to mint coins. This was around 625AD - small, gold coins called scillingas (shillings), modelled on coins from France. Numismatists now call them thrymsas.As the century progressed, these coins grew increasingly pale, until there was very little gold in them at all. From about 675, small, thick, silver coins known as sceattas came into use in all the countries around the North Sea, and the gold shilling was superseded by the silver penning, or penny. As money, gold fell out of use almost altogether, though silver had something of a boom.It is thought the word ‘penny’, like the German ‘pfennig’ derives from the pans into which the molten metal for making them was poured. ‘Pfanne’ is the German for ‘pan’. Another theory is that it derives somehow from the denarius, as the symbol for the penny used to be the d. Likely a bit of both.The Mercian King Offa, he of dyke fame, who reigned for almost 40 years from 757 to 796, must be one of the greatest Anglo-Saxon kings, certainly the greatest of the 8th century. As well as his dyke, which protected his kingdom from Welsh invaders, and provided a barrier by which he could collect duties, he is credited for the widespread adoption of the silver penny and pound as a unit of account (though the pound was in use before his reign, he still gets the credit). His coins, with portraits and intricate designs, were as accomplished as anywhere in Europe at the time. His system, though probably imported from Charlemagne and the Franks, for reasons which will become clear, almost certainly dates back to the Romans. 12 silver pence equalled a scilling. 20 scillingas, or 240 pennies (12 x 20), equalled a pound weight of silver. Thus did the pound we still use today get its name - it was, simply, a pound weight of sterling silver.The Latin word for a "pound" is libra and the pound sign, £, is a stylized writing of the letter L. The d meanwhile used for pence comes from the Latin denarius. The roots of the British system of money are Roman.Offa’s system remained standard until at least the 16th century and, in many ways, until decimalization in 1971. You had to add up each unit of currency separately in this format: £3.9.4, which would be spoken "three pounds, nine shillings and four pence," or "three-pounds, nine and four." To add, you would calculate each unit separately, then convert pence to shillings, leaving leftover pence in the right column. Then convert the shillings to pounds (with leftover shillings in the middle column). And then add up the total pounds. It sounds complicated when you explain it, especially to those oriented in metric, but, like all traditional measures, it is quite intuitive in practice.On this note, have you seen my lecture about weights and measures? It’s superb! Offa’s systems were gradually consolidated over the subsequent centuries, especially as the kingdoms of Anglo-Saxon Britain began to merge. In the 860s, for example, the kingdoms of Mercia and Wessex formed an alliance by which coinage of a common design could circulate through both of their lands.The Viking invaders found coinage systems far more sophisticated than their own, and the Danegeld, the protection money with which they were bought off, was paid in silver pennies. I had always thought the “geld” in Danegeld meant “gold” but in fact it means yield, and the Viking invaders demanded this tribute wherever in Europe they ravaged.Buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times? I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.The Danegeld system was quite efficient - on both sides. For the invaders, they were often paid more than they could raise by looting, without having to fight. For the locals, the ravaging was avoided, although, as Rudyard Kipling noted in his poem on the subject, “if once you have paid him the Dane-geld, You never get rid of the Dane.”The Danegeld probably also motivated improvements to Anglo-Saxon coinage. To pay his own soldiers, to build forts and ships, and to pay Danegeld, Alfred the Great increased the number of mints in his realm to at least 8. His successor Athelstan had 30 and, to keep order, passed a law in 928 stating that England should have just one currency. Ever since, there has been just one. This was many centuries before standardisation in France, Germany, or Italy.When William, Duke of Normandy, invaded England in 1066, he succeeded where his Viking ancestors had failed for over 270 years, in that he managed to conquer all of England. It meant he took control of English coinage, which was far superior to that of his homeland. William’s coins, struck back in Normandy, are remarkable for how poor they are, compared to their English counterparts.He had at least seven types of English pennies struck with his name on, enabling him to achieve the rebrand that was so important to him. No longer was he William the B*****d, as he was then known. Now he was William the Conqueror. He let the world know through his coins. It worked: that is how we still know him today.It is a little ironic that the pound should be so named for its silver. Because, from the time of Isaac Newton and the founding of the Bank of England, silver had very little to do with the pound. Only gold.That story is told here: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comIt’s difficult to look beyond bitcoin and MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) at the moment, the later in particular. Nobody expected this, not even Chairman Michael Saylor. The returns have been astonishing. A couple of readers have reported to me that the gains have been life-changing. Wow! What an email to receive. It’s easy to get hubristic when you have a big win. Instead, let us express gratitude for the good fortune that has smiled upon us. But look beyond we must, and so today I want to look at what I can only describe as a stealth bull market - natural gas. The price is creeping up, and few are talking about it.Natural gas is a bit like silver: if it can disappoint, it will. So we begin this piece with that reminder. Natural gas has broken the soul of many a wiser man than me.On the other hand, the next five years look pretty positive.It’s obvious that the world is going to go nuclear now, and that Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are going to provide the power AI so badly needs. However, it will be a good five years before they on stream, so what is going to provide the power in the interim?The answer is natural gas.There is a problem, however: Supply.America's Gas Wells Are Drying UpThe North American Shale Gas Revolution dramatically changed the outlook for fossil fuels. Peak Oil was a huge theme leading up to the Global Financial Crisis, and then it disappeared, almost overnight.Between 2005 and 2020, US natural gas production grew by 90%, with shale accounting for the bulk of it. In 2005, shale gas made up about 5% of US natural gas production; by 2020, it was over 75%. By 2017, the US had become a net exporter, especially of more transportable liquefied natural gas (LNG).The price, meanwhile, plummeted. Good for consumers!Here’s the long-term chart so you can see those price declines since 2005. From almost $16 to $3.50 today (as low as $1.50 earlier this year, where it has formed an attractive double bottom - you know how I like those).Obviously, we in the UK and Europe pay way more for our natural gas than they do in North America. It’s so dumb; we have enough to supply ourselves in the UK. But we don’t because fracking is deemed environmentally damaging. So we import gas from abroad, which is produced by, you guessed it, fracking. I guess if it is fracked somewhere else, it’s less harmful. Not Then there are the transport costs and the environmental costs that come with that.Anyway …Spanning Ohio, New York, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania, Marcellus is the largest natural gas-producing field in the United States, contributing over 25% of production. In 2010, output was 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d). By 2023, it exceeded 35 bcf/d, but production has been falling for almost a year now. We are currently at 26.7 bcf/dThe next largest is Haynesville, in Louisiana, Texas, and parts of Arkansas. Extraction costs here are higher, and production stands at 16 bcf/d, but it is slowing here too, according to analysts Goehring & Rozencwajg.One of the few areas of growth is the Permian Basin, in Texas and New Mexico, currently around 23 bcf/d, but even there, growth is modest.Now, it might be that the reason for stagnating growth is low prices - they often are - and higher prices will result in increased production. They usually do. That is the way with commodities.But natural gas prices have already doubled this year, and they keep on creeping up.The other interpretation is that the North American Shale Gas Revolution has passed its peak.With America’s new president, you can expect plenty more investment in production than under the Democrats, and that should bring the price down, but the gas price has actually risen - from $2.70 to $3.50 - since the election.It might also be that Russian gas taps come back online to the EU sometime next year, which means America will lose its new market.But all of this conjecture is factored into the price. And that is rising.How to invest all this

Let’s start with some headline stats which emerged this week.* The number of migrants to Britain has doubled since Covid.* 747,000 “permanent-type” migrants moved to the UK last year, the OECD said, up from 488,400 in 2022.* This marks a 53% year-on-year rise.* The four countries seeing the biggest surge in migration are the UK, South Korea, Australia, and the United States.* Note: Three of those four countries are English-speaking. This is something I have long argued: the UK will inevitably see higher than average migration levels because people prefer to go where they can speak the language, and more people have some English than other languages.Meanwhile, our birth rate has dropped to 1.4 children per woman, the lowest on record. The net result is that the demographics of this country are changing dramatically and rapidly. Different people means a different culture.The demographics of primary schoolsMigration measures, particularly illegal migration, are not entirely accurate. If someone has entered the country covertly, for example, there's often no record. Nor are censuses entirely accurate. Some don’t fill the census in, many don’t fill it in accurately, especially if here illegally, if they don't understand what it is, or if someone is claiming the single person council tax discount. There is a lot of scope for double counting for people with multiple addresses - students and so on.However, pretty much everyone who has kids sends them to school. There is no hiding, no double counting and so on, so the numbers you get from the schools’ census are pretty accurate.White British now make up 61% of UK primary school kids. 37% are of minority ethnic background. The remaining 2% are unclassified. (In secondary schools, minority ethnic accounts for 36.6%).Minority ethnic includes Asian (13.4% of primary school kids), White non-British (8%), Black (6.5%), and Mixed (7.8%).Bear in mind that these figures are for the whole UK. This includes primary school kids in remote rural areas, where British ethnicity will likely comprise over 90%.White British was at 64.9% in 2020-21 and minority ethnic at 33.7%. The numbers are changing fast. From 65 to 61% in three years. Ten years ago it was 70%.This 61/37 ratio compares with 85/15 in 2002. Previously, I extrapolated that White British would be a minority in primary schools by 2035. But with the current trends, especially considering that migrants tend to have larger families than locals, white British could become a minority in primary schools as soon as 2030, or just after. The demography of primary schools will, within a generation, reflect the demography of the country.I doubt this is what the majority of British people want.But it's not a topic that's being discussed, let alone addressed, in the echelons of power. Instead, it's being brushed under the carpet.Well, it will soon be too late. This is an urgent and pressing issue. Without wishing to sensationalise, the future of the British people and their homeland really is at stake. Demography is destiny after all.You really should subscribe to the Flying Frisby.If you are thinking of buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times, I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.More on this: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comToday, we are going to look at gold, bitcoin, and our way of playing it, MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), which has now 10xd (!) since we first covered it last year. Amazing.Finally, there'll be a short update on gold miners. Remember them?Let’s start with gold.Gold - and most other metals - has been hit since the U.S. election last week. It’s down $200, or about 7%, with U.S. dollar strength being a big factor (the dollar has been storming higher since October).While I think this bull market might be punctured, as I put it last week, and that gold probably has a bit further to fall, I am not unduly worried. 2024 has hitherto been a great year for gold, and it remains an essential long-term core holding.It is an even more essential holding for UK investors. I think sterling has big problems ahead of it, and gold serves as your hedge against crap governments.If you are thinking of buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times, I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.Labour or Tory - I’m no fan of either. They’re both as bad as each other, in my view. The less government there is, the better things run. But that's irrelevant idealism. Of greater concern here is reality: there has never been a Labour Government that did not devalue sterling.* Blair and Brown crashed sterling in 2007-8 (though until then their record was okay);* Under Wilson, Callaghan, and Healey, we ended up going to the IMF in 1976. Callaghan and Wilson also devalued in 1967.* Cripps and Attlee devalued in 1949.* Ramsay MacDonald’s National Government, which followed Labour from 1929-31, took us off the gold standard in 1931.Why should this Labour Government be any different? If anything, it is even less competent. Sterling devaluation is coming. How exactly might not yet be clear. I rather suspect it’ll be an attempt to make us competitive against an ultra-streamlined US, but that’s just a guess. You must own some gold (and some bitcoin) in such an environment: non-government money.Gold under Trump - What Gives? What’s coming?

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comI’m sending out today’s missive a day later than usual because I wanted to see the market reaction to the US election results and leave a little time to digest it all.Broadly speaking, I am happy with the result, and I believe the world will be a better place for it than the alternative. We’ll see less technocracy, less deep state , and less overseas intervention; more pro-energy, pro-Bitcoin, and pro-business policy; and a stance that’s anti-seed oil (go RFK!), anti-subsidised, environmentally harmful green quackery, and anti two-tiered, inequitable woke ideology.Any administration that puts perhaps the most competent person alive, Elon Musk, in a prominent role, has got to be net positive.But be careful what you wish for and of that. Donald Trump is not, as his most ardent supporters seem to think, going to save the world, nor any such. You need to fix money and tax to do that, and while he might tweak the latter, there will not be wholesale reform. And he is going to print lots of the former. Trump will run deficits, US debt will grow as a result and the nefarious consequences of fiat will take other forms.If there are financial problems looming for the US, I suspect their roots lie in the bond markets, where yields are rising.In short, the better alternative won. There will be more opportunity in the US than there otherwise might have been, but Trump is no Javier Milei. America isn’t yet ready for that.The initial market reaction give us some insight into where things are headed in the next few months.If you are thinking of buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times, I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.How did markets react?First up, and something I’m particularly pleased about: bitcoin has broken to new highs, hitting $75,000 yesterday. I’m particularly pleased because new highs in bitcoin usually bring a lot of noise. This time, the noise got drowned in the election frenzy, which means there’s plenty more hype in the tank.Our chosen vehicle for bitcoin exposure, MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), is now north of $250. This has been an incredible win for readers, as we first covered it last year at an adjusted $35. It’s risen 8x, compared to bitcoin’s 150%—that’s some outperformance.I wrote back in September that Q4 is usually bitcoin’s best season, and that is bearing out.Stock markets also rose, as you would expect with someone as pro-business as Trump. The Dow rose 3.5%, the S&P 500 climbed 2.5%, and the Nasdaq about 2.6%.During Trump’s last presidency, stock markets more than doubled, though with two major wobbles along the way, one due to Covid. Something similar this time around is not an unreasonable expectation—unless you subscribe to this view. If so, that would take the S&P 500 to around 12,000. Quite the number.What I found especially encouraging was the outperformance of small caps. The Russell 2000 was up 6%. Small caps have underperformed for years and are due for a run. Trumponomics clearly suits them.An interesting tidbit: Trilogy Metals (TSX: TMQ), a mining company I follow with two promising copper assets in Alaska, the development of which were blocked by the Biden administration on environmental grounds, saw its price rise 108% yesterday . Investors seem confident it will now get the green light.I expect similar stories across the mining, oil, and gas sectors. This is a time to be investing in the USA.On the other hand, commodities, especially metals, sold off. Copper fell 3%, with zinc and iron ore dropping by similar amounts. Crude couldn’t make up its mind: it came down a bit, then rallied, then ended the day flat. Natural gas was similarly indecisiveGold, silver and platinum all sold off, as the US dollar itself rallied quite sharply, rising 1%. Gold was off almost 3%, silver by almost 5%. Not good, though mostly a reaction to the dollar. Looks like those particular bull markets are, for the time being, punctured. That’s not me telling you to sell your gold by the way. Don’t. You are going to need it. Particularly if you are British.Which brings me to the UK and last week’s budget. I promised you my thoughts on it.

I am travelling this weekend so today’s thought piece is a conversation, which Mining Network recorded last week week between veteran gold guru, Alasdair Macleod, and myself. It’s heavyweight goldbug stuff. I hope you enjoy it.You can watch it below, but I have also ripped the audio so you have the option to listen to that if you prefer to escape the clutch of your screens. If you are thinking of buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times, I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.I’ll be MCing this year’s Moneyweek Summit this coming Friday November 8th. Readers of the Flying Frisby can get a 20% discount by entering the code FRISBY20And if you are interested in hearing more from Alasdair, he has a Substack too. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

I’m in Buenos Aires this week, so I might be a little slow reporting on today’s budget, but I’ll come to it, don’t you worry.Shortly before Covid hit, I became CEO of a Canadian company by the name of Cypherpunk Holdings (HODL.CN). I was very pleased with that ticker symbol—HODL. My idea. But I did not have a clue what would happen as a result …I’m writing about the company today because, even though I stood down four years ago, I know a number of readers bought shares because I was the CEO. It’s quite a story.Mining entrepreneur Marc Henderson controlled a shell company that had just received a large payout from the Mongolian government for some uranium assets it had seized illegally, as you do, and he wanted to use the opportunity to start a crypto business. We knew each other from way back, and he approached me because of my book.He also brought in Canadian bitcoin entrepreneur Moe Adham, and Moe and I put together a proposal to become a privacy tech investment company.We were both quite ideological about it. We had grave concerns about the increasing imposition on our privacy from both Big Brother and Big Tech. We felt it was only going to increase, and that therefore there would a need for privacy tech—anything from VPNs to private messaging apps such as Signal, to bitcoin and privacy coins. How right we were. Look at some of the stuff that went on during Covid.Perhaps where we misjudged was that we thought there would be a large appetite for privacy tech amongst the general public as a result. It turns out most of the general public care more about convenience than they do about their privacy, at least online. In many cases, they don’t even realise what they are sacrificing.Buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times? I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.Once we were up and running—and, believe me, there was a lot of compliance—I brought in my mate, bitcoin OG Jon Matonis, and we began the process of acquiring bitcoin. We would hold large amounts of bitcoin. (This was before Michael Saylor’s Microstrategy, which has been a big winner for the portfolio since we tipped it last summer it around $30 - now $220 - especially as bitcoin closes in on all-time highs). Upgrade your subscription.One of our key investors was poker champion Tony Guoga, who bought an enormous stake in the company and eventually joined the board to become Chairman.I stood down shortly after my dad died in April 2020. (From a financial point of view, that was a mistake, as I would have several million options now with the stock itrading at two bucks).But, despite the good work that the company was doing on the ground, the great investments it was making, and the phenomenal board, it just kept trundling along sideways, largely ignored by the investment community and trading at around half its NAV. Like a champ, Tony Guoga kept on buying stock, especially on dips, building up an enormous position. He owns about 35% of the company. Talk about management being aligned with the interests of the shareholders.Recently, however, the company had a rebrand. With all the bitcoin ETFs, it was pointless holding bitcoin, they thought, and the company decided to focus instead on SOL, which lacks a mainstream investment vehicle. Sol Strategies Ltd became the new name, and, a few months earlier, they brought in a new CEO, Leah Wald, as well.In the last fortnight, the shares have gone absolutely nuts—going from around twelve cents to above C$2. There have been several catalysts. First, Leah has made a number of well-received appearances in the media that have generated some interest in the stock. Second, it has become the easiest way to get exposure to SOL. Third, "HODL" is also the US ticker symbol for one of the bitcoin ETFs, and many Canadians, typing in HODL, accidentally bought this company instead. LOL.Veteran traders will know the chart pattern the stock has played out. I believe it’s known as the hockey stick.Just incredible. And look at the volumes that have come in. The market cap of the company went from about C$17m to C$335 at the top of the market yesterday. Guoga’s stake alone went from about C$6m to north of C$115m.For years, the company was trading at half its NAV of C$30. Suddenly it’s trading at ten times.From a technical point of view, it shows just what can happen to a company after it builds all that cause trading sideways for many years. When it spikes, it can really spike.I gather that it’s become something of a meme stock, so who knows when this will end? The algorithms have taken charge, especially on the US OTC markets where it also has a listing (CYFRF) and it is having daily swings of something like 30%.It even makes Lightbridge (LTBR) look calm. Have you seen that, by the way? $14 yesterday. It was $3 a fortnight ago, when I wrote it up.Another hockey stick:My broker commented that it’s good to see some animal spirit has returned to the markets.I’m just amazed at what algos can do to small-cap North American stocks. Talk about speculation.Casino!Let’s hope one day they discover AIM.I don’t know if this kind of speculation signals a top. It’s pretty obvious to me Trump is going to win next week, so maybe that’s all priced in and markets pull back after the election.Crash ahead?On which note, I leave you with this crazy interview. It was recorded in March of this year, several months before the Trump assassination attempt in July, and yet predicts it with incredibly accuracy. He also predicts the weird weather, a Trump win, followed by a 1929 stock market crash. Watch a minute or two from around the 11-minute mark (it should start there). Nuts.I bet there are a gazillion things he’s predicted which haven’t happened. But I still thought it was pretty amazing.I probably shouldn’t even be sharing this stuff, but I remembered it last night it from a few months back and, with the election coming next week, I went back and re-watched it.What do you make of it?Let me know in the comments. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com(NB: At the end of this piece there is a short note on Lightbridge Corp (NASDAQ:LTBR), which has tripled since I covered it a fortnight ago).I have suffered from asthma for as long as I can remember.Others have it worse than me. I had always been able to manage it with drugs – salbutamol mostly – but, all the same, there was always that lurking thought that if I forget my inhaler and have an attack, I could be in trouble.Then, suddenly, in my early 50s, it disappeared.It is not uncommon to grow out of your asthma. It happens to a lot of people. But my asthma was not getting better; it was getting worse as I grew older. I can’t prove it, but I think I got rid of it. Here is what I did.How Bad Was My Asthma?As is quite common for people my age, I was not breastfed as a baby – science thought it knew better than Mother Nature – and the allergies I suffer from – the main ones being to animal hair and pollen, which result in hay fever and asthma – are a result of that, I’m sure. It’s part genetic too: my dad had asthma but grew out of it in his adolescence. None of my four kids, who I’m delighted to say were all breastfed, have it.There were two main triggers: animal hair, cats especially, and exercise. Sometimes going from warm to cold (e.g., going outside in winter) would bring it on, and it was worse during the hay fever season.As a child, we had cats – Persian ones too – and we didn’t get rid of them until I was nine. I can’t believe it took that long to figure out I was allergic to them; whenever I left the house, my asthma noticeably improved. But I took drug after drug every day, morning, noon, and night – Intal and Ventolin. We moved and got rid of the cats, fortunately. As a teenager, I got quite strong and fit: I played a lot of rugby and football. I found I could get through matches without needing the inhaler at all. But cats would always destroy me. Within ten minutes of being in a house with cats, I would be wheezing. I was just so sensitive to them. Prolonged exposure would take a day or two to recover from.It was so frustrating going to people’s houses and having to leave because of my asthma, or having to sit there and wheeze, while the owners scrabbled about putting the cat outside or hoovering. Made no difference. Every year on Christmas Eve, I would have the annual asthma attack when visiting my uncle and aunt.As I got into my late 20s and 30s and the fitness of my youth waned – not helped by smoking too much weed at university – I found myself needing my blue inhaler (salbutamol) more frequently again to play sport.By the time I got to my 40s, I often found myself getting wheezy for no apparent reason, and I was using the blue inhaler almost every day.Doctors advised me to use the brown inhaler – QVAR (beclomethasone) – every day, rather than salbutamol, and the brown did indeed clear it up so that I didn’t have to use the blue. But I don’t like taking drugs every day, and every time I tried to wean myself off the brown, I found my asthma had got even worse. I was too dependent.By my late 40s, I was quite overweight, and even though I did a lot of aerobic sport – running and football – I was heavily dependent on puffers.We had a dog too, and even though it was a hypoallergenic poodle, I was still sensitive to its hair.Alcohol made my asthma worse, especially red wine. Also, if I drank, there was always the risk I would then smoke, which of course made it bad the next day.Here I am today, and I have not used a puffer in maybe two years. I play football most weeks, tennis sometimes, I run, and do sprint training and cycling, including hill training.But this week came the acid test. I went for a drink at a some friends house, and they have a cat. I spent a very long evening there and did not leave until 3 AM. No puffer required. I went back the following day and spent several hours there. No puffer. Then again two days later (I really like these friends!). Still no puffer. My nose didn’t even run.I could still feel the allergy. But I was not remotely wheezy.For me, this is quite extraordinary. Fifty years of asthma have gone.How Did I Do It? (Plus a Note on Lightbridge)I’m going to spell out all the things I did. It might be that it was a combination of all of them.