Podzept - The Bigger Picture

Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economics Research, Matt Luzzetti, Chief US Economist and Mark Wall, Chief European Economist, discuss the world outlook 2023 as we find ourselves at a defining moment for the global economy. Inflation is running at multi-decade highs, central banks are pursuing their most aggressive tightening cycle in a couple generations, and a recession is now increasingly expected in the US and Europe. As 2023 nears, there is a growing consensus that it is shaping up will be the third-worst year for global growth so far in the 21st century, behind only the pandemic year in 2020 and the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2009.

In our new series ‘Making Sense of Space’ we discuss various aspects of the Space ecosystem. The second episode dives into connectivity constellations and how optical/laser terminals could boost performance. Edison Yu, lead on research coverage of Space & Aerial Mobility, speaks with Bulent Altan, CEO of Mynaric and also an early SpaceX employee.

Perry Kojodjojo and Oliver Harvey from Deutsche Bank Emerging Market Research discuss the recently published EM Currency and Local Markets Handbook. The new and revitalised handbook covers over 30 local EM markets in detail, covering liquidity, market structure and regulations in FX, local bonds and IRS, as well as targeted descriptions of monetary policy and market participants. The Handbook is designed to be an essential tool for institutional and corporate clients in navigating an increasingly complex and fragmented EM regulatory and macro environment, with new sections on unconventional monetary policy by EM central banks, new markets such as Kenya and Pakistan and a discussion of the evolving EM market landscape.

In recent weeks, markets have been very volatile as they digest announcements from global policymakers and central bank responses to persistently elevated inflation. In the latest episode of Podzept, Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, and Matthew Raskin, Head of US Rates Research, discuss their views on the outlook for Fed policy and the US yield curve.

Europe is in the middle of an energy crisis. It’s grappling with two big challenges at the moment – urgently weaning itself off Russian energy, particularly gas, and moving to a cleaner energy economy. At times, those two goals seem to be in opposition to each other.

Assessing the state of the US economy has become very tricky recently with various datapoints sending conflicting signals about the underlying strength. While 2.7 million new jobs were added in the first half of 2022 with the unemployment rate staying at 3.6%, consumer sentiment is plumbing historical lows and forward-looking growth indicators have weakened. Matthew Barnard, Head of Company Research, US speaks to Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, to shed light on what is going on.

Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research, and Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, discuss how the US economy is the furthest away from the Fed’s targets in forty years. This gap, captured by persistently elevated inflation and a historically tight labour market, is likely to necessitate a more aggressive response from the Fed that ultimately leads to a recession by the end of next year.

Sameer Goel, Global Head of Emerging Markets Research, discusses the impact of the war in Ukraine on Asian markets, including the complex trade relationships that have knock-on effects on the rest of the world.

With the Fed trying to achieve a soft landing for an economy weathering both high inflation and geopolitical upheaval, Deutsche Bank Research has adjusted its forecasts for rate increases and balance sheet reduction. Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, speaks with Matthew Barnard, Director of North American Equity Research, and details the numerous challenges facing the Fed as it attempts to delicately thread this policy needle.

In a new episode of the Podzept podcast Marion Laboure and Luke Templeman discuss the financial market implications of banning Russia from the SWIFT payment messaging system. Listen in to learn more about SWIFT, its history, previous bans and its alternatives.