The Economy, Stupid

Australia’s birth rate is collapsing, heading for a record low next year, well below the level needed for the population to replace itself. Fewer couples, fewer kids, and a world where ageing societies reshape everything from innovation to taxes. Why is this happening everywhere at once, and what does it mean for your future?Guests: Viva Hammer, ANU population researcher and tax expertMyriam Robin, AFR senior writer

Gareth Hutchens, ABC business and economics reporter who tracks how big shocks hit everyday life. Bob Gregory, former Reserve Bank board member who lived through 1970s stagflation. They recall the 1970s surprise, policy missteps, oil and wage drivers, current geopolitics and energy risks, debates over rate rises and unemployment, and whether productivity or AI could change the outlook.

Sherelle Murphy, EY Oceania Chief Economist and former central banker, and Gianni La Cava, ex-RBA research manager turned policy analyst, unpack why the central bank raised rates despite recession risk. They sift petrol’s outsized role in inflation. They debate board splits, transmission limits when government services swell, mortgage buffers and whether another hike is likely.

From food security to fuelling our air force, the global oil crisis threatens far more than the cost of driving a car. So what happens next?

GDP is meant to measure economic progress, yet even war can make it rise. So what exactly is it measuring?

Matt McKenzie, economics writer who defends WA’s case for fairer GST treatment. Saul Eslake, former chief economist turned fiscal federalism expert. They debate why WA got a special billion‑dollar boost, the history and purpose of GST redistribution, whether resource success should reduce support, and what reforming the grants system might look like.

Cathal Leslie, a Gen Z economist with Treasury, OECD and AI sector experience, and Brendan Coates, Grattan Institute housing and economic security lead, debate Australia’s 50% capital gains tax discount. They explore how the discount shaped investment toward housing, who benefits, reform options like halving or targeting the concession, and likely political outcomes. The conversation focuses on effects for prices, rents and social housing.

Spending is outpacing revenue, and the budget gap isn’t closing.At the same time, Australia is drifting off track on its emissions targets for 2030, 2035 and 2050.The Superpower Institute has a proposal: a revamped carbon pricing model it says could help fix both.Australians rejected carbon pricing more than a decade ago.The question now is whether the country is ready to reconsider? Guests: Ingrid Burford, Lead, Carbon Pricing and Policy, Superpower InstituteBen Potter, contributing Editor at The EnergySuperpower Institute: The Case for Pricing Pollution: Reducing emissions, strengthening the economy, and delivering a fair share for Australians

The Reserve Bank has lifted rates, and if you’ve got a mortgage, you’ll feel it fast. A typical borrower on a $600,000 loan is up around $90 a month for a single hike, and if more follow, the hit multiplies. Is inflation really back, or is the Bank overreacting? And what would more hikes do to jobs and house prices?Guests: Michael Pasoe, writes for Michael West MediaCherelle Murphy, the Oceania Chief Economist for the consultancy firm EY 

Miriam Robin, AFR senior writer on corporate leadership and business behaviour, and David Bassanese, BetaShares chief economist and interest-rate specialist, discuss a surprise inflation jump and why the RBA may need to tighten. They explain trimmed-mean inflation, capacity constraints vs demand, services-led price pressures, likely timing of rate moves, market signaling and gold’s surge benefiting Australian miners.