The Hoon

TLDR: This week in the news in geo-politics, the global economy and Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy:* Te Pūtea Matua (The Reserve Bank) hiked its interest rates again to control inflation (Thursday’s email);* the Government revealed a robust set of accounts that will allow room for competing tax cut offers in next year’s election (Thursday’s email);* local elections came to a close with a revolt against the Government brewing (Interviews with Efeso Collins and Simon Wilson);* TOP proposed a residential land tax to pay for income tax cuts for low to middle income earners (Interview with Raf Manji)* An increasingly-desperate Vladimir Putin faces growing opposition at home and more defeats on the battlefield in Ukraine; and,* the IMF and UNCTAD warned about a slowing of global economic growth, especially in developing economies, because of the rapid and concerted tightenings of monetary policy led by the US Federal Reserve (Friday’s email).We recorded the podcast above from the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar we do for paying subscribers every Friday evening at 5pm for an hour. This week co-host Peter Bale and myself talked about the local elections, flawed plans to merge TVNZ and RNZ and the potential for tax cuts next year. We talked in the second half of the show with regular guest, University of Otago Foreign Relations Professor Robert Patman about the situation in Ukraine, the risk Putin might use tactical nuclear weapons and Saudi Arabia’s defiance of the United States by promising (along with Russia) to cut oil output.Five things this weekThese are the five key bits of news and analysis this week that may not have crossed your radar and I thought was important, given in my focus on the issues of improving housing affordability, reducing climate emissions and reducing child poverty. I welcome the support of paying subscribers to allow me to do this work, and to share it publicly after paying subscribers see it first.Te Pūtea Matua may hike 75 bps to 4.25% on Nov 23Deep in the notes from the Monetary Policy Committee’s commentary with the statement on this week’s fifth consecutive 50 basis point hike in the Official Cash Rate to 3.5%, Te Pūtea Matua said the committee considered putting up the OCR by 75 basis points, which would really have thrown the cat into the mortgage rate pigeons. It argued this was partly because mortgage rates had yet to rise in line with wholesale rates (swaps rates) and it wondered if the tightening therefore needed a hurry up.In the end, the committee decided against 75 basis points, in part because it thought the banks would get around to putting up mortgage rates more. “The Committee expects that higher wholesale interest rates will be reflected in higher retail interest rates, particularly deposit rates, as banks compete for funding.” MPCHere’s the chart for the two year swap rate, which has risen by 350 basis points from 1.25% before Covid to 4.75% now. In theory, that should have meant average two-year mortgage rates should have risen from 3.5% pre-Covid to 7% now, all other things being equal, including profit margins.Instead, what we’ve seen is the average two-year mortgage rate has risen from 3.5% pre-covid to 5.5%, although it has risen 300 basis points from its post-covid low of around 2.5%.Some of those average figures disguise the discounted rates that banks offer so the 7% estimate of where they ‘should’ be may not include the loss-leader discounts the banks include. So what? - My suspicion is the Reserve Bank wants to see the banks give up some of those discounts and put the mortgage rates up to around 6% from 5.5% now. We’ll find out more on November 23 when the last full Monetary Policy Statement of the year (and the last monetary policy decision) comes out. If the banks have not put their ‘specials’ up closer to 6% by then, that may encourage the Reserve Bank to do a final 75 basis point hike for the year to 4.25%, given the next decision after that is not until February 22.The bottom line - Brace for a 75 basis point hike on November 23 if inflation is still running hot and the banks have not nudged their retail mortgage rates up much. We’ll find out more about inflation on October 18 (the Tuesday after next) when the September Quarter CPI comes out. The young are deserting Labour and going to ACT & TOPThe Roy Morgan opinion poll is the only long-running and truly regular monthly public poll but is not promoted or attached to a media outlet or interest group so doesn’t get much publicity. Some others also think it’s an inferior poll to the 1News-Kantar, Newshub-Reid Research, Talbot Mills (for corporate clients and Labour) and Curia-Taxpayers Union polls. The television-sponsored polls are irregular and depend on the whims and budgets of newsrooms. The monthly Talbot Mills poll is not regularly leaked and the Curia poll has not been available publicly and monthly for long. The Roy Morgan poll’s methodology is standard, but its commentary release is written from Australia and often jars, which undermines its credibility. Its numbers though are as good or bad as the others, in my view. This week Roy Morgan released its September poll of 942 electors taken by landline and mobile phone. It found Labour down 5.5 percentage points to a record-low 29.5% since Labour came to power in 2017. National rose 0.5 points to 36% and ACT rose 2% to 12.5%. The Greens rose 2.5 points to 12.5%. Te Pāti Māori fell 1.5% to 3.5%, while TOP rose 1.5% to 2.5%. On those numbers, National/ACT would be able to govern aloneBut the most interesting trend for me was the continued desertion of Labour and National for ACT, Te Pāti Māori and TOP by young men and women. Support for Labour among young women (18-49) fell to 26.5% from 30.5% a month ago and fell for National to 30.5% from 31% a month ago. Support for Labour among young men fell from 30.5% to 27% and fell for National to 25.5% from 35%. Young men increased their support for the Greens to 16% from 9.5%, to 5% from 3.5% for Te Pāti Māori and others (including TOP) to 8% from 4%.The other thing to watch is whether support for the Government, and therefore Labour, bounces in line with consumer confidence as the summer arrives and passes without more Covid drama, as the economy opens up more and as inflation fades. Consumer and business confidence have bounced in the last couple of months and their may be a lagged effect to boost Labour over the summer.So what? - TOP/Te Pāti Māori are now regularly polling at 5-6% overall and over 10% for the young. Disillusion with National and Labour’s addiction to untaxed capital gains is beginning to grate among the young, who have much lower home ownership rates.The bottom line - If TOP leader Raf Manji can win the Christchurch electorate seat of Ilam (where he polled second in 2017 when up against then-National-MP Gerry Brownlee) and drag in one or two more TOP MPs, alongside another three or four Te Pāti Māori MPs, then there is the prospect that TOP and Te Pāti Māori could extract some form of wealth, land or capital gains tax out of Labour or National for either to form a Government. The bottom bottom line - TOP and Te Pāti Māori need electorate polls done in early 2023 to show they are viable prospects to coat-tail in votes under 5% to win more support from the young who don’t want to ‘waste’ their votes.The early global inflation indicators are falling fastWe all tend to watch our own inflation figures in the rear-vision mirror, which means here we still think inflation is 7.3%. That was actually four to seven months ago and since then the leading indicators for inflation globally for later this year and early next year are blowing cold as the European and Chinese economies are slowing rapidly because of the Ukraine war, Covid lockdowns and China’s apartment development collapse respectively. The US economy is also slowing.That means shipping costs and input costs for businesses are falling in Europe and the United States. Chinese inflation hasn’t been nearly as high as elsewhere throughout the last year either. Here’s the charts for Brent Crude (down 25% since June) and the Freightos Global Container price index (down 50% since June)It will take a while for these to feed through, but the chances are rising that inflation will ‘cure itself’ without central banks having to put up their official cash rates much beyond 4.25% in the next three or four months.Some scenarios for our political economy in the year aheadSo what? - I’m still in Team Transitory and see mortgage rates falling again late next year as the global economy cools and these big energy and shipping costs surges wash out. If National/ACT remain on track to govern alone from September next year onwards, expect the housing market to take off again in late 2023 in expectation of the repealing of Labour’s tax tweaks for landlords and the effects of lower mortgage rates.The bottom line - Our housing market’s fundamental over-valuation relative to incomes and rents, will remain in place, and potentially worsen again because the fundamental problems of the non-taxation of residential land value appreciation and the under-investment in infrastructure for new housing and public transport would remain unsolved, especially after that potential election result. Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy would still be little more than a housing market with bits tacked on that embeds a two-tier society split between the landed gentry families of older, Pakeha home owners and the families of younger (and older) Maori and Pasifika renters. The bottom bottom line - First home buyers shouldn’t wait for more price falls in the ‘bleeding edge’ markets of Auckland and Wellington, and should get in as soon and as much as they can to ensure they get their share of the leveraged and untaxed gains in land values to come. The even thicker bottom line - Young renters and old owners who want to change that status quo and grow their own families in Aotearoa-NZ would need to campaign and vote for Te Pāti Māori and TOP in the next election to have a hope of extracting land and/or capital gains taxes out of either National/ACT or Labour. Votes for the Greens are effectively wasted because the Greens would never transfer their deciding votes to anyone other than Labour, which means Labour can ignore any Green demands.So what will determine which scenario happens?So what now? - The key things to watch over the next year in these calculations are:* what happens to polling support for Te Pāti Māori and TOP;* whether Raf Manji and Te Pāti Māori co-leaders Rawiri Waititi (Waiariki) and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer (Te Tai Hauāuru) are on track to win their electorate seats;* whether National/ACT remain in the polling position of being able to form Government alone;* whether Jacinda Ardern resigns as PM in late December or late January to hand over to Grant Robertson (a small chance in my view), which could boost Labour in the polls;* whether inflation globally and here comes off the boil as expected, and if not, whether the world’s central banks carry on cranking up interest rates (which would keep driving house prices down), or are forced to bail out markets to avoid another financial crisis (which would force house prices up); * whether, as I expect, Labour eases migration settings to restart population growth in response to demands from businesses and promises of the same from National/ACT, which would support house prices and possibly help Labour in the polls; and,* whether Australian PM Anthony Albanese confirms a faster pathway to residency in late April next year, which could unleash a flood of those young renters migrating to Australia.The best-case scenario to achieve better housing affordability, lower climate emissions and lower child poverty? These things would need to happen in combination:* TOP and Te Pāti Māori would have to win electorate seats and more than 5% in the election, and are able to extract some form of land or capital gains taxation pledges out of either Labour or National;* Inflation stays uncomfortably high or worsens, which would drive interest rates up and force house prices down; and,* Labour chooses not to unleash more migration, or does ease settings and the migrants don’t turn up, which I think would be unlikely.The worst case scenario, which is my current base case, is that:* National/ACT win Government without the need for TOP/Te Pāti Māori, cut taxes for home owners and repeal the interest deductibility, ring-fencing and brightline tests that are helping to repress house prices at the moment;* Inflation is clearly dropping by early next year and mortgage rates are dropping through late 2023; * Migration and population growth is surging by late 2023/early 2024 because both Labour and/or National/ACT have released the restrictions and the temporary work migrants (work visa, students, backpackers) show up because they haven’t worked out how to get into TradeMe property or realestate.co.nz to see the rents and house prices; and,* This population growth overwhelms the exodus of young renters seeing a future for higher wages, lower rents, more secure and healthy housing and bigger pensions in Australia because the fear of being a second-class non-citizen living there is removed.Your thoughts? Flaws in the logic or facts you can point out? I welcome comments from paying subscribers below.Ka kite anoBernard This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

TLDR: I spoke this week in the podcast above to NZ Herald senior writer Simon Wilson about the election campaign for the Auckland Council that ends this weekend. In particular, we looked at the potential makeup of the new council and the attributes of Mayoralty contenders Efeso Collins and Wayne Brown.This election is crucial for Auckland’s future, given the huge decisions needed in the next couple of years around mode shift from cars to walking and cycling, and whether Auckland’s housing densification plans are sufficient. We talked through the particular sets of skills and attributes of Collins and Brown to be Mayor. The long story short: Brown, 76, has a combative and reactionary approach that is less likely to build the necessary agreements on those issues above with fellow councillors and the Government than Collins, 48, who is a two-term councillor. For more reading on this issue, here’s all of Simon’s articles via NZ Herald-$$$ on the election campaign, including this piece on Wayne Brown and this piece on Efeso Collins.I spoke with Efeso Collins in this podcast recorded on Monday. Wayne Brown declined a request for an interview with me earlier in the campaign.Ka kite anoBernard This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

TLDR: This week the financial and geo-political outlooks darkened in Britain and northern Europe after Britain’s plans for unfunded tax cuts were trashed by financial markets and sabotage of gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea aggravated tensions between NATO and Russia. Closer to home, National’s leaders Christopher Luxon and Nicola Willis were forced to deny their tax cuts were similar to Britain’s disastrous plans and postal voting in council elections got off to a slow start, prompting suggestions they should be run in future by the Electoral Commission in similar ways to the General Election. In the podcast above of Friday evening’s ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers, co-host Peter Bale and myself talked about the news of the week in geo-politics and Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy with the University of Otago’s Robert Patman, including:* The Bank of England’s intervention to promise to print at least £65b to stop Britain’s £1.5t pension sector from collapsing under the weight of billions of pounds of margin calls from the use of a new derivative tool called Liability Driven Instruments (LDIs);* the LDIs were triggered by the fastest ever rise in British bond yields because new PM Liz Truss and new Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng promised £45b of unfunded tax cuts, most of which will go to the richest taxpayers;* the turmoil on global financial markets saw the NZ dollar fall to a 14 year low of 56 USc, complicating the inflation-fighting job of the Reserve Bank, which is expected to hike the Official Cash Rate again next Wednesday at 2pm by 50 basis points to 3.5%;* the mysterious explosions under the Baltic Sea that destroyed the Nordstream 1 and 2 gas pipelines from Russia to Europe, which Danish authorities have said was caused by sabotage with 500kg of TNT;* without formally accusing Russia of the sabotage, NATO pledged to defend Europe’s infrastructure with concerted military action;* Russia’s deputy head of security said he thought Russia would be able to get away with nuking Ukraine because NATO was afraid of retaliation;* surveys of the confidence of consumers, employees and businesses in Aotearoa-NZ found improvements in the September quarter as mask restrictions were lifted and tourists and working holiday makers began returning; and,* a political opinion poll showed National-ACT in a position to govern alone (just) if the election was held now, with another survey showing the net approval ratings of Christopher Luxon and Jacinda Ardern were neck and neck.Here’s Peter Bale’s weekly email on world affairs as a primer.An update from the podcast: Robert Patman talked on Friday night about the potential fall of the key city of Lyman in the Donetsk province of Ukraine. Since then, Russia’s troops have indeed pulled out of the strategic city.Ka kite anoBernard This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

TLDR: This week The Kākā had its first anniversary as a paid subscription email newsletter and podcast. We marked the occasion at midday for an hour on Friday by having a special ‘hoon’ webinar for all subscribers to discuss the events of the week in geo-politics and Aotearoa-NZ.Popular special guests Professor Robert Patman from the University of Otago, ANZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner and Dominion Post columnist Josie Pagani joined myself and Hoon co-host Peter Bale to discuss some monumental events in geo-politics and the global economy, and what they might mean for our political economy.We talked about:* Vladimir Putin’s announcement of the mobilisation of 300,000 reservists and subsequent street protests in Russia, along with attempts by potential draftees to flee the country;* Putin’s barely disguised threat to use tactical nuclear weapons to defend the ‘motherland’ of Russia, which will shortly include the areas of Ukraine annexed by Russia and where referendums to confirm that will shortly be held;* the West’s strong and mostly united reaction rejecting the annexation and nuclear threat at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), where PM Jacinda Ardern gave this speech on Friday night;* some signs of division in support for Ukraine bubbling in Europe, including in the Putin-backed Hungary and in Italy, where an election this weekend is expected to deliver a right-wing Government seen as more sympathetic to Russia;* the US Federal Reserve’s ‘jumbo’ 75 basis point rate hike to a range of 3.0% to 3.25% and Chairman Jerome Powell’s hawkish rhetoric about the need to clamp down on inflation with interest rates over 4% for a couple of years;* the Bank of Japan’s vow to keep printing to keep its interest rates low, and its subsequent need to intervene to stop the yen falling late on Thursday, which was the first such currency market intervention by a major central bank since 1998;* the new Liz Truss-led UK Government’s plan to borrow to fund massive tax cuts for higher income earners and companies, which it subsequently confirmed yesterday with a plan to borrow £234b to pay for £150b of winter energy subsidies and £45b of tax cuts;* new polling showing voters in democracies want to tax wages less and wealth more, as Josie Pagani detailed in her column yesterday;* signs consumers in Aotearoa-NZ are not rolling over and tightening their belts under the weight of higher interest rates, which Sharon Zollner said might require our Reserve Bank to hike higher than the 4.75% peak she had previously forecast; and,* why voters in western democracies want more of their tax money spent at local levels, and how difficult that is in Aotearoa-NZ where the central Government doesn’t share tax revenues with councils.Five things of note this week‘You can’t go out much, and we order you to go up’The Government ordered councils not to allow greenfields housing developments to sprawl out into highly productive farmlands, but also wants councils to open up more land for housing. I argued these two things weren’t credibly consistent with the current approach to funding infrastructure and winning the political battles needed for housing to grow ‘up’ instead of ‘out.’They could be if the Government also provided the financial incentives and released the debt funding shackles on itself and councils that would enable much, much more brownfields ‘densification’ of housing. Instead, the Government is simply ordering councils to allow more densification, without adequately funding the public transport or allowing for the NIMBY-fueled political backlash that is now consuming councils from the political ground up. It is magical thinking of the highest order.This creates an awful Catch 22. Not allowing councils to build ‘out’ or helping them much to build ‘up’ is a recipe for yet more land price appreciation captured by today’s land owners. This comes at the expense of future renters locked out of the home ownership they need to build stable families and finances, and keeps them paying the world’s most expensive rents. Here’s my full article from Monday.The densification backlash went mainstreamEarlier this month, the Christchurch City Council refused to submit an updated plan that allowed the three-storey townhouses on all sections, as ordered by the central Government after a bipartisan ‘Townhouse Nation’ deal late last year. Outgoing Mayor and former Labour minister Liane Dalziel wrote to Environment Minister David Parker to protest against the ‘one size fits all’ approach and call for a more ‘bespoke’ approach.I asked Parker if the Government was considering legal action to force the Council to adopt the new rules, or could even appoint Commissioners. He declined comment because he said he yet to receive legal advice.Here’s Dalziel’s argument (bolding mine):“We are supportive of the Government’s aims to address housing shortages and enable the delivery of a wider range of housing options. However, a blanket rule change is not necessary here. We have an ample supply of places available where people can subdivide to create more housing and where no resource consent is required.” Liane Dalziel’s plea to the Labour Government. My view: There is not ample supply of land available in Christchurch, otherwise housing would be affordable. Truly elastic land supply would allow developers to build in response to the recent surge in prices and push prices back down in response with a new housing supply surge. That has not and is not happening, as well demonstrated in this speech from Treasury Chief Economist Dominick Stephens, which is in turn based on this deep research note on housing costs by the Housing Technical Working Group, which includes Treasury, the Reserve Bank, and HUD.‘We’re really serious this time’The US Federal Reserve hiked its key interest rate by 75 basis points for a third consecutive time and forecast significantly higher interest rates for another couple of years to try to win back its reputation for keeping inflation low.The very hawkish view of the world’s most important central bank is now much tougher than most investors, traders and economists think. Global stocks fell sharply.Someone is wrong and this could get ugly because global asset prices, and that includes the most expensive residential land in the world in Aotearoa-NZ, are based on lower interest rates sooner and for longer than the Fed is now saying. This morning the Fed forecast quite high rates for quite a bit longer.Is it safe to come out now?Spring is in the process of springing in the housing market for first home buyers, thanks to strong income growth, low unemployment, lower prices and early signs mortgage rates have peaked.FOOP (Fear Of Over Paying) is about to flip back to FOMO, unless global central banks pull the rug out from under the market heading into summer with big new rate hikes to beat down un-cooperatively high inflation rates. See more detail here in my Thursday email detailing signs that first home buyers and some investors are nudging back into the market.Another captured stateLiz Truss’ extraordinary embrace of Reagan-style supply-side economic theories that are now widely debunked from people as conventional as the IMF stood out this week. It is another case where the populist leaders of a democracy win power and then promptly cut taxes in a way that makes their wealthy backers vastly wealthier.The brazenness and cravenness is something to behold. Now even financial markets are calling out the economic lunacy of tax cuts paid for with borrowing. The bond vigilantes stirred back into life this week and drove British ‘gilt’ bond yields higher in the biggest and fastest way in modern history.Quotes of the week‘I’m not bluffing’“To those who allow themselves such statements regarding Russia, I want to remind you that our country also has various means of destruction, and for separate components and more modern than those of Nato countries and when the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, to protect Russia and our people, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal. It’s not a bluff.” Vladimir Putin in a presidential address, via The Guardian‘I’m also not bluffing’“We have got to get inflation behind us. I wish there were a painless way to do that. There isn’t.” US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in a news conference on Thursday, via PBS.‘I think trickle down will work this time’“I don’t accept this argument that cutting taxes is somehow unfair. People on higher incomes generally pay more tax, so when you reduce taxes, there is often a disproportionate benefit because those people pay more taxes in the first place.” UK PM Liz Truss this week, via CNBC‘Trickle-down has been tried and failed’“I am sick and tired of trickle-down economics. It has never worked. We're building an economy from the bottom up and middle out.” US President Joe Biden in a tweet a day before meeting Truss.Ka kite anoBernard This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

TLDR: The podcast above is a recording of our Weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers. We do this every Friday for an hour at 5pm and it’s one of our most popular features, along with my Ask Me Anything session from midday on a Friday. Yesterday’s was a cracker. This week’s guests on the ‘hoon’ were University of Otago Foreign Relations Professor Robert Patman and Kiwibank Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr.This week I was in the Parliamentary Press Gallery in Whanganui-a-tara and co-host Peter Bale joined us from Tamaki Makaurau.The five things of note I’ve focused this week included:* Christchurch City Council voting against the Government’s densification directives and doubling down by promising to charge developers extra if they don’t have enough trees;* the Government completely dumping the ‘traffic lights’ system of Covid controls, including vaccine mandates and mask mandates, but not seven-day isolation for Covid sufferers;* REINZ figures showing Auckland City and Wellington City house prices down 17-23% from the peak in October/November, but with signs the market is warming up again in Auckland in particular;* Wellington City Council voting to limit speeds on most city streets to 30 km/hr, triggering accusations of being ‘anti-car’ as voting papers are mailed to potential council voters; and,* an inflationary surprise in the United States unnerving investors hoping the Fed won’t have to crunch the global economy into a recession with sharply higher interest rates.But also overseas:* Ukraine’s amazing counter-offensive that drove Russian troops out of 6,000 square kilometres of eastern and southern Ukraine, and have sparked the glimmerings of dissent in Russia;* Vladimir Putin met with Xi Jinping overnight and Putin reported Xi was not thrilled with his invasion of Ukraine; and,* Europe announced windfall taxes on energy firms.Here’s Peter’s always excellent weekly bulletin email on international affairs that goes out on a Thursday via the Spinoff. Sign up hereI also started the Substack ‘threads’ trial on the Substack iOs app.Chart of the weekANZ lifted its OCR forecast peak to 4.75% from 4%Quote of the week“We’re making Earth our only shareholder.” Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard said while announcing he and his family had given the company to two trusts dedicated to fighting the climate crisis.Other places I’ve beenA fun thing. I want one.Mā te wāBernard This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

TLDR: In this week’s ‘hoon’ webinar in podcast form above, Peter Bale and myself invited on ANZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner and talked about:* Europe’s energy crisis and how Governments were intervening in markets to impose windfall taxes and pay hundreds of billions in energy subsidies to households;* the European Central Bank’s biggest rate hike in 24 years and why this meant Peter would finally get some interest on his euro deposits;* what the election of Liz Truss means for Britain’s debt and taxes; * Sharon’s view house prices may not fall as much as previously thought; and,* Emmanuel Macron’s speech about the ‘end of the age of abundance’.We also briefly talked about the Queen’s passing, including Peter’s recollections from meeting her a couple of times. The podcast above is available for all paying and free subscribers as part of this weekly sampler email. Subscribe in full to support my public interest journalism on housing affordability, climate change and child poverty and to join our community debating these issues daily.My Five Things to note this weekOur housing crisis writ large in RotoruaTVNZ’s Sunday programme (below) aired a startling documentary exposing bullying of homeless people in Rotorua motels by a charity with unlicensed security guards with gang connections. Opposition parties called for an inquiry. The Government said it hadn’t found anything untoward.The exposure of the ‘Golden Mile’ highlights again the failure of 30 years of infrastructure under-investment allied with a structural taxation bias in favour of residential property. The Government, like the last one, is now scrambling with short term solutions, but won’t address the core issue:* our taxes and infrastructure investment rates are too low;* we don’t tax capital gains or wealth, unlike every other developed country; and,* there is no immediate political prospect to break this log jam, largely because home-owning median voters like it just the way it is, until they see the end results of child poverty, social dysfunction and rising welfare costs in their faces every day. The immediate solution is to push the social problems ‘somewhere else.’ That somewhere else in the middle of the North Island is Rotorua. The same ‘Golden Miles’ are in place in many provincial cities up and down the country.Here’s my weekly ‘When the Facts Changes’ podcast via The Spinoff talking about the housing supply issues with Kiwibank economist Jeremy Couchman, and the Golden Mile documentary below that. Europe intervenes massively in energy marketsFaced with Vladimir Putin’s act of economic warfare of cutting off their gas supplies completely, European governments are intervening massively in markets to impose price caps and redistribute profits and resources from asset owners to households, or to simply park the cost as public debt and let the owners reap the rewards from more taxpayer-funded bailouts.European Union countries this week announced plans to imposing windfall taxes on the winners from exploding wholesale gas and electricity prices in order to pay over €500b euros in subsidies to households so they can afford to pay their gas and power bills this winter.Britain’s new PM Liz Truss announced plans to borrow over £150b to freeze household energy bills. She also announced Britain would start fracking for gas and remove its energy levies designed to reduce climate emissions. She is effectively paying taxpayers’ money to fund profits and cash returns for the energy companies on the right side of the price spikes, and to rescue those on the wrong side.Europe is now re-organising parts of its economy for a long war, which means pivoting production for war aims and imposing the sorts of rationing and price caps used in war. The video below that emerged this week of French President Emmanuel Macron’s first call with former comedic actor and now Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on the first night of the war is remarkable. It introduces the phrase ‘total war’ to the conversation.Europe scrambling to contain inflation headed for 10%The European Central Bank hiked its main interest rates by the most in the 24 year history of the euro this week. It is battling inflation that is headed for 10% across the continent and faces the prospect of a recession later this year at the same time as double-digit inflation. Europe’s other problem is it hasn’t yet matched its single monetary policy and currency with a single Government or fiscal policy. It means the ECB has ended up printing money to buy Greek, Italian and Spanish bonds to contain their interest rates, which would normally be much higher because their Governments have higher debts than the rest of Europe. Rising interest rates and the stresses of the winter will put this fundamental weak point in the global economy under enormous financial and political pressure in the months to come.Vladimir Putin may be losing on the battlefields of Ukraine, but his acts of economic warfare on Ukraine’s immediate suppliers of support and arms is having an extraordinary effect. As Peter points out in the podcast above, Italy’s leaders are now openly talking about trying to negotiate with Putin to resume gas supplies.We talk about Europe’s economic and political woes with Sharon in the podcast above, as well as whether the US Federal Reserve will win its battle of wills with markets. The Fed reiterated again this week it is very determined to squeeze the US economy with rate hikes until the pips squeak to beat down inflation, while markets see inflation solving itself and the Fed eventually relenting so asset prices can stay high.Underlying all these problems is the very live issue of whether central banks can maintain their independence in the face of political pressure to solve Government debt and economic growth problems by just inflating away the debt.‘The end of the age of abundance’On August 24, Macron gave a sobering short speech to his first post-summer cabinet meeting on what faced them. In the process, he became the first world leader to openly talk about ‘de-growth.’ This is the idea that the planet is hitting its physical limits and the task now is to manage a decline in GDP and a redistribution of resources to stop the earth from cooking and dissolving into a Mad Max-style hellscape of wars over energy and water.Here’s what he said:“What we are currently living through is a kind of major tipping point or a great upheaval … we are living the end of what could have seemed an era of abundance … the end of the abundance of products of technologies that seemed always available … the end of the abundance of land and materials including water.“This overview that I’m giving, the end of abundance, the end of insouciance, the end of assumptions – it’s ultimately a tipping point that we are going through that can lead our citizens to feel a lot of anxiety. Faced with this, we have a duty, duties, the first of which is to speak frankly and clearly without doom-mongering.” Emmanuel Macron talking to his cabinet. GuardianI wrote a piece on Wednesday about how 30 years of magical thinking had led us to this point. Here’s the guts of it.This magical thinking says voters in a property-owners’ democracy can have:* low taxes, low debt, low interest rates and rising asset prices into infinity;* without having to invest much in repairing or preventing the damage to the environment, or in new technology to use energy more efficiently;* or having to invest in affordable housing or transport for the generations of youth sentenced to live as renters on precarious wages for decades to come;* or don’t have to worry about election revolts from those unborn generations who will have to pay both rent and taxes for the publicly-funded pension and healthcare costs for today’s asset owners;* that democracies can easily survive the social stresses and lower economic growth rates caused by widening inequality, over-consumption of physical assets without paying for externalities, and unaddressed climate change; and,* that autocracies competing for those resources with democracies will not take advantage of this dysfunction to protect and grow their own share of those resources.The bottom bottom line - None of this really computes in the long run and it’s beginning not to compute in the short run either as climate change accelerates into growth-sapping events in the near-to-now future.For example, just overnight:* offices closed and data centres were flooded in the global outsourcing capital of Bangalore after record-setting torrential rains allied with poor water infrastructure investment; (ABC)* California, the world’s fifth biggest economy, is in severe drought and faces power blackouts and water shortages because of climate change Reuters;* a third of Pakistan, which is being bailed out by the IMF, is under water and it’s trying to widen a breach in its biggest lake to avoid it overflowing even more Reuters; and,* Shenzen, the globalised supply chain’s component assembly centre, is locked down with a disease (Covid) initially transmitted zoonotically on a planet that transmits more diseases zoonotically as it warms Reuters.The unpriced-and-unpaid-for externalities generated by over-consumption, under-investment and deliberately widening inequality over the last 30 years appear to be coming together in a poly-crisis moment. The bill feels as if it’s coming due all at once in a series of climate events and wars that accelerate each other into a series of feedback loops into yet more crises.Covid restrictions are ending here tooOur Cabinet will meet on Monday and is expected to let Aotearoa-NZ’s remaining Covid restrictions on mask use lapse by the end of the week as case numbers and intensive care occupancy rates head back to February levels. Marc Daalder from Newsroom wrote a strong commentary piece on this prospect:This would be a foolhardy move, when even the Government's own variant plan spells out an uncertain future of recurring pandemic waves which represent "a substantial increase in the overall burden of disease".The fortunate situation we find ourselves in is unlikely to last forever. New variants could push baseline case numbers to levels where masks and other protections are still warranted, as happened after the first Omicron peak.New variants and rapidly waning immunity will also fuel new waves, necessitating the imposition of more stringent but short-lived health measures to flatten the curve and dampen transmission.The problem is that, with no framework like the traffic lights or alert levels to enable the reintroduction of protections on either a semi-permanent or temporary basis, the Government simply won't. We'll all suffer a much higher burden of disease and death for that failure. Marc Daalder via Newsroom.Have a great weekend.Ka kite anoPS: My apologies to subscribers and Peter who dialled into this week’s live ‘hoon’ webinar. I was a few minutes late due to a scooter battery issue. I would not do well in Mad Max world. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

TLDR: This week on the weekly hoon webinar, we talked about the Government’s GST U-turn, the likely election of Liz Truss as UK PM, Ukraine’s counter-attack in Ukraine, and National’s relaxed reaction to a UN report on China’s oppression of Uighurs.I’m keeping this short this week as I’ve been focused on getting out my interview with Adrian Orr earlier this morning. The audio from the webinar on Friday night for paying customers is in the podcast above for all subscribers. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

TLDR: The five signals I picked out from the noise this week were:The Fed scared markets a bit US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in his hotly-anticipated speech at Jackson Hole at 2am this morning that the Fed must keep hiking interest rates “until the job is done,” which would probably lower economic growth for “a sustained period.” This was seen as tougher than traders and investors had expected so the S&P 500 fell 3% by 10 am. The 2-year Treasury bond yield, which is the one fixed mortgage borrowers here in Aotearoa-NZ should watch, rose only 3 basis points to 2.07%. The 10-year yield rose just 1 basis point to 3.03%.So what? - Clearly Powell’s hawkishness has unnerved share investors a bit, but bond investors, who are the ones who forecast inflation and interest rates for a living, were more relaxed. The bond market moves were not enough on their own to force big moves up in our fixed mortgage rates, but our stocks are likely to fall a bit on Monday morning. Meh.Europe’s gas shock deepenedEuropean gas prices jumped another 10% overnight to a fresh record-high over €343 per megawatt hour because of fear Russia will turn off its gas completely. This is more than ten times pre-war prices. Heating bills in Europe in the coming winter will be brutal and the political pain of Europe’s support for Ukraine is deepening. Putin is applying the screws hard.This chart from Capital Economics this week shows just how serious the shock is for Europe.The 20% fall in house prices won’t wipe out many at allSome people are worried a lot of recent first home buyers will be wiped out by the 20% fall in house prices that is now rippling out from Auckland and Wellington. I wrote in Wednesday’s email about why very few people are likely to lose their houses and deposits. As in less than 10. I was then invited on to 1News’ Breakfast show to talk about it and on RNZ’s The Panel on Friday.Climate Change is hitting the economy from all directionsClimate change feedback loops hammered the global economy this week, adding to the inflationary and recessionary pain of Covid and the war in Ukraine. Europe’s drought was declared the worst in 500 years as German and French factories hit by higher electricity costs reported output in recessionary territory.Meanwhile, China closed shopping centres, turned off light displays and ordered factory closures because of hydro-electric power shortages from the worst drought it has experienced in 50 years.That water seemed to head straight for us in an extension of the ‘Atmospheric River’ that caused extensive damage in Nelson and Marlborough this week. I wrote in Tuesday’s email about how these climate changes are affecting our economy.Migration settings are being loosenedI wrote in Monday’s email about how the Labour Government was loosening migration settings and in Tuesday’s email I wrote about how this loosening reinforced that all roads towards a real improvement in investment and productivity would lead to an annual levy or tax on residential land values. I hosted our weekly live ‘hoon’ webinar for over 100 paying subscribers on Friday night to talk about these events of the week. The audio from the webinar is in the podcast above for all subscribers immediately as part of this weekly summary and sampler of the week’s news and my work this week on The Kaka.We talked about:* why a 20% fall in house prices isn’t too big a problem for NZ Inc;* how consumers are feeling about spending (a bit better), even those with mortgages;* why all roads lead to a tax or levy on residential land values;* how accelerating climate change is shunting the global economy around;* why Labour’s loosening of migration settings shows how hard it is to kick our economy’s basic business model; and,* what might happen next with inflation, interest rates, asset prices and jobs markets. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

TLDR: The five signals I picked out from the noise this week were:* Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr’s second term is hanging in the balance as he scrambles to drag inflation down and have some sort of outside review before March;* A call from the Human Rights Commissioner for a rent freeze and an increase in the accommodation supplement exposed again the Government’s lack of a housing affordability target to hold it accountable;* Fresh emissions reductions commitments without funded investment plans from the Auckland and Wellington City Councils exposed again the performative nature and magical thinking behind central and local Government climate pledges; * China eased monetary policy after surprisingly weak factory output and consumer spending figures for July, adding to the recessionary forces building in the global economy that are expected to drag inflation lower later this year.* China increased subsidies for coal-fired power stations to offset lower hydro-power output caused by climate-change-driven droughts, showing how hard it is for even the last democratic emitters to avoid short term-thinking to solve a long term problem.I co-hosted our weekly live ‘hoon’ webinar for over 100 paying subscribers with Peter Bale at 5pm on Friday night to talk about these events of the week and others with special guest Raf Manji, who is the leader of The Opportunities Party. The audio from the webinar is in the podcast above for all subscribers immediately as part of this weekly summary and sampler of the week’s news and my work this week on The Kaka. In particular, we talked about* The Reserve Bank’s rate hike and the challenges it faces reassuring politicians and voters that it needs to remain independent;* the threat to local democracy from the slate of Voices For Freedom candidates in this year’s council elections;* the risks of a new Chernobyl-style nuclear catastrophe at the Zaporizhzhia power plant in Ukraine;* TOP’s proposal for a residential land value tax. A reminder to free subscribers reading here that we have a special $30 a year deal for under 30s and anyone on a benefit. We also have a new special $65 a year deal for over 65s who are renting and reliant on NZ Superannuation. Any students, teachers and staff who signs up to the free tier with a .school.nz or .ac.nz email address will also be comped up to the full paid tier for free.This week’s five signals from the noiseAdrian Orr refused to say if he wanted a second termThe Reserve Bank hiked the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points to 3.0% as expected on Wednesday and forecast it would raise it to around 4.0% by the end of the year. That didn’t surprise anyone in financial markets or change fixed mortgage rates. The hottest questions at the news conference with the quarterly August Monetary Policy Statement were around the criticism of the Reserve Bank’s performance and whether Governor Adrian Orr wanted a second term. His current five-year term expires at the end of March and a second-term would potentially see him having to serve under a Government run by National and ACT, both of whom have been sharply critical of the bank and Orr.Orr refused to say whether he wanted a second term, even though Finance Minister Grant Robertson has expressed confidence in him and has said he is working with the Reserve Bank board on the details of the reappointment. National has called for an independent inquiry into the bank’s performance before any decision on Orr’s reappointment. Orr used the news conference to frame an ongoing Reserve Bank-commissioned review of the central bank’s operation of monetary policy as enough of a review. In particular, he pointed to a part of the review being done by independent overseas experts, former Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy board member (2001-2011) Warwick McKibbin and former Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Larry Schembri (2013-2022). Here’s my fuller report and analysis in Thursday’s Dawn Chorus. Where’s the affordability target?Human Rights Commissioner Paul Hunt called this week for a new rent freeze and an increase in the Accommodation Supplement. Housing Minister Megan Woods responded with a list of the Government’s actions to increase housing supply and reduce demand from rental property investors.I focused in Wednesday’s Dawn Chorus on why the Government’s failure to identify a house-owning and rental affordability target (something like three times income for owning and 30% of disposable income for renting) makes that list a pointless exercise because its impact cannot be measured or the Government held accountable.Who do they think they’re kidding?Auckland Council agreed this week to a Transport Emissions Reduction Pathway that reduces climate emissions by 64% by 2030. The plan requires: * a 10-fold increase in walking, cycling and scooter use; * a six-fold increase in bus, ferry and train use;* EVs to be responsible for 32% of total vehicle kilometres travelled by 2030; and,* reductions in freight emissions of 45% by 2030, aviation emissions reductions of 50% by 2030 and shipping emissions reduction of 50% by 2030.Two things are required to make this work: congestion charging and an awful lot of new central Government funding, neither of which have been agreed. These are easy things for an outgoing Mayor and a bunch of councillors to say with a couple of months left on their term.China’s economy is slowing fast, which will help reduce inflationChina’s central bank eased monetary policy unexpectedly this week after the world’s second largest economy reported factory production fell and consumer spending growth was weaker than expected because of Covid lockdowns and cooling demand for exports.Along with easing economic growth in the United States and Europe, China’s slowdown is taking pressure off inflation and encouraging financial markets to think the US Federal Reserve will have to start cutting interest rates next year. The Fed is not saying that though, potentially creating a dangerous gap between market expectations and central bank actions. China lifts coal subsidies to offset climate-caused cuts in hydro-powerI wrote in Friday’s Dawn Chorus about China’s decision to increase subsidies for coal-fired power plants to help them cope with electricity shortages because of a drought in China’s south-western province of Sichuan.China is doing what most of the world is doing right now in the face of intense short term financial and climate pain. It is turning to the short-term tools it has to deal with the short-term pain, even though it knows it will make the long-term problem of climate change worse in the long-term. Politicians, even the ones in undemocratic dictatorships, are afraid of the short-term consequences of unhappy voters and citizens having to cope with short-term pain.Ka kite anoBernard This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

TLDR: The five signals I picked out from the noise this week were:* China only rattled its sabres in the Taiwan Strait;* There was no inflation in the United States in July;* House prices are bottoming out in Auckland City and Wellington City;* Christopher Luxon failed his first candidate selection test; and,* An Auditor General’s report exposed Three Waters’ democratic deficit.I co-hosted our weekly live ‘hoon’ webinar for over 100 paying subscribers with Peter Bale at 5pm last night to talk about these events of the week and others with special guests University of Victoria Foreign Affairs Associate Professor Jason Young to talk about. The audio from the webinar is in the podcast above for all subscribers immediately as part of this weekly summary and sampler of the week’s news and my work this week on The Kaka. It usually goes out every Saturday morning for your weekend reading and listening pleasure. In particular, we talked about* a proposed select committee inquiry into the Government’s financial response to Covid and how Labour’s rejection of it shows the weaknesses of our limited democratic protections;* the Government’s Reshaping Streets proposal to encourage the swapping of cars for walking and cycling, which National has called a ‘war against cars’; and,* China’s angry (but so far not destructive) military response to Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, and the intensifying conflict in Ukraine.This is my weekly summary and sampler of the news of the week on The Kākā for both free and paid subscribers. The public interest journalism I do daily on housing unaffordability, climate change inaction and poverty reduction is possible with the support of paid subscribers. Join our community by subscribing in full.A reminder to free subscribers reading here that we have a special $30 a year deal for under 30s and anyone on a benefit. We also have a new special $65 a year deal for over 65s who are renting and reliant on NZ Superannuation. Any students, teachers and staff who signs up to the free tier with a .school.nz or .ac.nz email address will also be comped up to the full paid tier for free.This week’s five signals from the noiseLuckily, China only rattled its sabres in the Taiwan StraitChina reacted angrily to last week’s visit to Taiwan by US Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, by staging its most intense series of drills, test missile firings and naval manoeuvres in the Taiwan Strait in almost 30 years. Chinese fighter jets, bombers and warships repeatedly crossed the median line between China and Taiwan and probed its defences. China also fired ballistic missiles over Taiwan and into the seas near Japan. But the United States was careful not to send its carrier group nearby into the Taiwan Strait and, somehow, these drills and counter-drills passed by without any accidents or actual clashes. We all dodged a big bullet. China declared the exercises over this week, avoiding the prospect of a full blockade of shipping or air traffic in this key pathway for much of the world’s shipping. Aotearoa-NZ also managed to avoid further inflaming China by calling only for diplomatic moves to de-escalate tensions. Our public comments were less openly supportive of Pelosi’s move and Taiwan than Australia’s. China’s diplomats said this had set back efforts to warm relations with Australia’s new Labor Government, which had initially improved since its election in May. “I think my personal understanding is that once Taiwan is reunited, coming back to the motherland, there might be a process for the people in Taiwan to have a correct understanding of China about the motherland.” China’s ambassador to Australia, Xiao Qian, speaking at the National Press Club in Canberra, where he said there was no room for China to compromise on Taiwan and suggested re-education for Taiwan’s people after reunification. The Guardian There was no inflation in July in the United StatesThe Consumer Price Index in the world’s biggest economy was flat in the month of July and the annual US inflation rate fell to 8.5% from 9.1% in June. This data released on Wednesday night was lower than expected and sparked rallies on stock and bond markets as investors hoped it meant the pain of higher interest rates would be not need to be quite so painful.This was a big deal in the global economy and reinforced the hopes of those in ‘Team Transition’, including me, that global inflationary pressures have peaked and central banks won’t have to hike short term interest rates too much to get inflation back down to around 2% in the next couple of years. I wrote in depth about this in Thursday’s Dawn Chorus, which included my podcast version that talked through the underlying reasons why disinflationary forces would eventually overwhelm the inflationary spikes of 2021 and 2022.House prices are bottoming out in Auckland City and Wellington CityThe Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) published its sales data for July on Thursday, which was reported more broadly as showing a housing market in virtual free-fall mode. The slightly panicky tone of the coverage elsewhere suggested the figures were just the beginning of a slide that could turn uglier. Actually, I think they showed the beginning of the end of a 15-20% fall in house prices nationally this year from their peaks in October and November of last year. Prices have begun bottoming out in the ‘bleeding edges’ of the market in central Auckland and Wellington. Prices in Auckland City are now down 17.2% from their November peak and Wellington City prices are now down 18.8% from their October peak, although they bounced 2.4% in July from June. Wellington City’s peak-to-trough fall was 20.1%. The rest of the country is still catching up. Interest rates have stopped rising, migration is restarting and many investors are becoming more hopeful of a change of Government late next year, which would see interest serviceability, ring-fencing and bright-line taxes repealed, along with a softening of expensive rules forcing landlords to make homes warmer. I wrote in depth in Friday’s Dawn Chorus about why we’re likely to see a rebound from late 2023.Christopher Luxon’s failed his first candidate selection testLate on Monday afternoon Kirsty Johnston reported via Stuff that new National MP for Tauranga, Sam Uffindell, violently assaulted a fellow Kings College boarding school student in 1999. The former banker had apologised to the victim last year before standing in the by-election to replace Simon Bridges in the safe seat. Uffindell also told the selection committee about the assault and apology, but the committee including then President Peter Goodfellow, new President Sylvia Young and senior MP Todd Barclay, chose not to tell National’s delegates selecting the candidate or Luxon. Barclay told staffers in Luxon’s office, but they didn’t tell Luxon, Luxon said.Luxon initially defended Uffindell to the hilt as a ‘changed man’ all through interviews and standups on Tuesday, until new allegations of bullying and flat-trashing emerged that evening via RNZ. Luxon then suspended Uffindell via email at 11.21 and set up a two-week inquiry by QC Maria Dew.I wrote in Tuesday’s Dawn Chorus about Christopher Luxon’s failure to choose a good candidate at his first attempt under reformed selection rules, and the problems he now has with the National Party outside Parliament, given Peter Goodfellow remains a board member and Sylvia Young was Goodfellow’s pick and now President."I'm very confident we'll get a great candidate in Tauranga - we've got a great local organisation, and they'll have a great selection I'm sure." Christopher Luxon on March 24 rolling out a new selection process called 'National 101' to get better candidates for Parliament. “He’s going to bring something really different to our caucus and some diversity to it in that in that he’s really well educated, he’s had a local and international finance background, he’s a local agribusiness owner, and he’s a very committed family man from Tauranga who can advocate well for those local issues, so that’s what we wanted, so I’m really excited about what he’s going to be able to bring to our party.” Luxon describes Uffindell when asked about a lack of diversity in candidate selection by Waatea News on May 2.“Sam is a good candidate and is a high integrity person and he's got good character.” Luxon at 10.20am on Tuesday after learning about the first revelations about Uffindell’s violent assault in 1999 and admitting being a bully as a young man, as well as his decision not to reveal it to voters, delegates or Luxon."We've had an MP involved in completely unacceptable and unlawful behaviour.” Luxon at 11.20pm on Tuesday in a statement suspending Uffindell after new allegations emerged.The Auditor General exposed Three Waters’ democratic deficitAuditor General John Ryan lobbed his submission on the Water Services Entities Bill into the Parliamentary Select Committee process on Monday, including unusually sharp criticism of the Three Waters reforms.Ryan skewered the lack of accountability that Three Waters is creating in its attempt to solve Aotearoa-NZ’s existential infrastructure funding blockage. The too-clever-for-its-own-good nature of Three Waters finally caught up with it and sank its teeth into its own rear.I wrote in Tuesday’s Dawn Chorus about how the Labour Government’s attempt with Three Waters’ to quietly solve Aotearoa-NZ’s fundamental infrastructure financing problem had backfired, largely because not being crystal clear about the need for higher taxes and debts had allowed others to insert co-governance into the vacuum left by that vagueness.“I am concerned about whether these mechanisms will be sufficient, individually or collectively, to enable comprehensive and effective public scrutiny and accountability.” John Ryan in the submission.Ka kite anoBernard This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe