Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Christine McDaniel is a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center and was previously the deputy assistant secretary at the U.S. Treasury Department and senior trade economist in the White House. Christine is a returning guest to Macro Musings and joins the show today to talk about recent trade developments. David and Christine also discuss the details of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement, how Brexit affects trade issues in Europe, and the possibility of blowback from Trump's trade policies. Transcript for episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/01212019/china-usmca-uk-and-more Christine's Twitter: @christinemcdan Christine's Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/christine-mcdaniel Related Links: "Tariff man": https://imgur.com/a/fcBuvKy *A Weakened China Tries a Different Approach With the U.S.: Treading Lightly* by Keith Bradsher, Alan Rappeport and Glenn Thrush https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/12/business/china-trade-war.html *Scholars Respond: New Trade Deal with Mexico, Canada* by Christine McDaniel and Daniel Griswold https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/commentary/scholars-respond-new-trade-deal-mexico-canada David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Craig Torres is a reporter for Bloomberg News where has earned several rewards for his reporting on Fed policy. Previously, Craig also served as the chief of the Wall Street Journal's Mexico City bureau, where his work on the collapse of the peso in the mid 90's made him a finalist for the Pulitzer Prize in international reporting. He joins the show today to discuss some the stories he has written while reporting on the Fed and the economy. David and Craig also discuss the Fed's increase in transparency under Jay Powell, the current state of U.S. monetary policy, and effects of automation on demographics and the economy. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/01112019/war-stories-fed Craig's Twitter: @ctorresreporter Craig's Bloomberg archive: https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/AElDlyQuDPM/craig-torres Related Links: *New Blue-Collar Jobs Will Survive the Rise of AI* by Craig Torres https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-01/new-blue-collar-jobs-will-survive-the-rise-of-ai *Housing and Monetary Policy* by John Taylor https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/83de/849c0eaaa1eaa720427e1e1ac0c4782bf693.pdf David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Julia Coronado is the president and founder of Macro Policy Perspectives, a Wall Street research firm. Previously, she was a chief economist for Graham Capital Management and a senior economist at BNP Paribas. Julia also served on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for over a decade, and she joins the show today to talk about the Fed's latest rate hikes and other recent economic developments. David and Julia also discuss the Fed's recent financial stability report, why inflation has been persistently low, and ways to improve communications between the Fed and the market. Julia's Twitter: @jc_econ Julia's Macropolicy Perspectives profile: https://www.macropolicyperspectives.com/about/ Related Links: Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/01072019/micro-foundations-macro-questions(link forthcoming) David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Brian Goff is the distinguished professor of economics at the Gordon Ford College of Business at Western Kentucky University. He is the author of the Econosports blog at Forbes and most recently the author of a new book titled, *Sports Economics Uncut*. Brian joins the show today to talk about the economics behind professional and collegiate sports across the United States. David and Brian also discuss stadium subsidies, the relationship between salary caps and dynasties, and why there may need to be serious reform at the collegiate sports level. Brian's blog: https://www.forbes.com/sites/briangoff/#393eb9d01647 Brian's WKU profile: https://www.wku.edu/economics/staff/brian_goff Related Links: *Sports Economics Uncut* by Brian Goff https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/sports-economics-uncut *eBooks link: https://www.ebooks.com/96329982/sports-economics-uncut/goff-brian/ *Football Still Americans' Favorite Sport to Watch* by Jim Norman https://news.gallup.com/poll/224864/football-americans-favorite-sport-watch.aspx *Happy 10th Birthday to the Most-Subsidized NFL Stadium in America* by Anne Philpot and Michael Farren https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/commentary/happy-10th-birthday-most-subsidized-nfl-stadium-america David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Felix Salmon is a financial journalist at Axios and the host of the Slate Money podcast. In this special holiday episode, Felix joins the show to discuss the economics of charitable giving and one of his other favorite topics, sovereign debt. David and Felix also discuss debt contract innovations, effective altruism, and ways to improve charitable giving across the U.S. and the globe. Felix's Twitter: @felixsalmon Felix's website: http://www.felixsalmon.com/ Related Links: Axios Edge newsletter: https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-edge Recipe for Disaster: The Formula that Killed Wall Street by Felix Salmon https://www.wired.com/2009/02/wp-quant/ David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Matt Mitchell is the director and senior research fellow at the Equity Initiative at the Mercatus Center. He joins the show today to talk about rent seeking and how it affects long term economic growth and prosperity. David and Matt also discuss regulatory capture, the rise of patent trolls, and the economics of public choice theory. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/12172018/macroeconomics-rent-seeking Matt's Twitter: @MattMitchell80 Matt's Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/matthew-mitchell Related Links: *Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty* by Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson https://scholar.harvard.edu/jrobinson/publications/why-nations-fail-origins-power-prosperity-and-poverty *The Political Economy of the Rent-Seeking Society* by Anne Krueger https://www.jstor.org/stable/1808883?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents *Entrepreneurship: Production, Unproductive, and Destructive* by William Baumol https://www.jstor.org/stable/2937617 *Uncontestable Favoritism* by Matt Mitchell https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3210953 *40 Years of Research on Rent Seeking* by Roger Congleton, Arye Hillman, and Kai Konrad https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783540791881 David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Josh Galper is the managing principal of Finadium, an independent consultancy in capital markets with unique expertise in securities, finance, collateral, and derivatives. He joins the show today to talk about money markets, overnight interest rates, and some of the big issues in this area. David and Josh also discuss the Lehman Brothers collapse, the "Narrow Bank," and what we should know about key interest rates; namely the repo rate, LIBOR, interest on excess reserves rate, and SOFR. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/12072018/plumbing-monetary-policy Josh's Twitter: @Finadium Josh's Finadium profile: https://finadium.com/josh-galper-mba/ Related Links: Finadium's homepage: http://finadium.com Finadium's magazine: http://securitiesfinancemonitor.com *Second Report of the Alternative Reference Rates Committee* by the New York Fed https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/Microsites/arrc/files/2018/ARRC-Second-report *The SOFR Transition: Benchmarks, Futures, and P&L* by Finadium https://finadium.com/finadium-report-desc/sofr-transition-benchmarks-futures-profit-loss/ David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Victoria Guida is a reporter for Politico where she covers monetary policy and financial regulation, including extensive coverage of the Federal Reserve, the FDIC, the Treasury Department, and Congress. She joins the show today to talk about some of the big developments in monetary policy and financial regulation over the past few years and what kind of policy changes may be on the horizon. David and Victoria also discuss the Financial CHOICE Act, the accomplishments and failures of the current lame duck Congress, and what to expect from the new appointees at the Fed. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/12032018/victoria-guida-politics-monetary-policy Victoria's Twitter: @vtg2 Victoria's Politico profile: https://www.politico.com/staff/victoria-guida Related Links: *Big Banks, Feeling Unloved in Trump's Washington, Shake Up Lobbying* by Zachary Warmbrodt https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/09/banks-lobbying-donald-trump-669706 *A Bank's Activities, Not Its Assets, Should Decide Regulatory Status* by Thomas Hoenig https://www.americanbanker.com/opinion/a-banks-activities-not-its-assets-should-decide-regulatory-status David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Neil Irwin is a senior economics correspondent for the New York Times and was formerly a columnist at the Washington Post. He is the author of the book, *The Alchemist: Three Central Bankers and a World on Fire*, and he joins the show today to talk about his work as an economics correspondent. David and Neil also discuss the invisible recession of 2016, how monopsony power affects labor market wage setting, and the political fallout from the Great Recession. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/11262018/economic-journalism-recession-economics-and-international-monetary-policies Neil's Twitter: @Neil_Irwin Neil's New York Times profile: https://www.nytimes.com/by/neil-irwin Related Links: *The Alchemists: Three Central Bankers and a World on Fire* by Neil Irwin https://www.amazon.com/Alchemists-Three-Central-Bankers-World/dp/0143124994 *The Policymakers Saved the Financial System. And America Never Forgave Them* by Neil Irwin https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/12/upshot/financial-crisis-recession-recovery.html *The Most Important Least Noticed Economic Event of the Decade* by Neil Irwin https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/29/upshot/mini-recession-2016-little-known-big-impact.html *Are Superstar Firms and Amazon Effects Reshaping the Economy?* by Neil Irwin https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/25/upshot/big-corporations-influence-economy-central-bank.html *Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?* https://www.nber.org/papers/w23134.pdf *What Recovery? The Case for Continued Expansionary Policy at the Fed* by J.W. Mason http://rooseveltinstitute.org/what-recovery/ David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Adam Ozimek is a senior economist at Moody's Analytics where he covers U.S. labor markets and demographics while actively blogging and tweeting about a wide range economic issues. He joins the show today to discuss mistakes in Fed policy and demographics. David and Adam also discuss the role demand played in the Great Recession, the link between population growth and inflation, and why the economy is experiencing weak productivity growth. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/11192018/adam-ozimek-inflation-migration-and-productivity Adam's Twitter: @ModeledBehavior Adam's blog: https://www.economy.com/dismal/analysis/datapoints Adam's website: https://www.adamozimek.com Related Links: If you would like access to *The Fed's Mistake*, you can email Adam at Adam.Ozimek@moodys.com to request the paper. *Population Growth and Inflation* by Adam Ozimek https://www.economy.com/getlocal?q=a7c139c0-2b8c-4abf-9b65-bd8b11392939&app=eccafile *Declining Business Dynamism in the United States: A Look at States and Metros* by Ian Hathaway and Robert Litan https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/declining_business_dynamism_hathaway_litan.pdf *The role of Entrepreneurship in US Job Creation and Economic Dynamism* by Ryan Decker et. al http://econweb.umd.edu/~haltiwan/JEP_DHJM.pdf *The Migration Accelerator: Labor Mobility, Housing, and Aggregate Demand* by Greg Howard http://economics.mit.edu/files/12236 *Aging and the Productivity Puzzle* by Mark Zandi, Adam Ozimek, and Dante DeAntonio https://www.economy.com/dismal/analysis/commentary/300374/Aging-and-the-Productivity-Puzzle/ David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth