Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Ashoka Mody is a professor of international economic policy at Princeton University, has formerly worked at the IMF and the World Bank, and is a returning guest to Macro Musings. In this episode, he joins David to discuss the global economic implications of COVID-19 and what it specifically means for Europe and the Eurozone. Transcript for the episode. Ashoka's Twitter: @AshokaMody Ashoka's Princeton profile: https://scholar.princeton.edu/amody/home Related Links: Cover of Ashoka's new paperback book: https://i.imgur.com/1IYWBAk.jpg Bonus segment with Ashoka Mody: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZsAetHdzjA&feature=youtu.be *Charting the Crisis* by Ashoka Mody http://econbrowser.com/archives/2020/03/guest-contribution-charting-this-crisis *Euro Tragedy: A Drama in Nine Acts* by Ashoka Mody https://global.oup.com/academic/product/eurotragedy-9780199351381?cc=us&lang=en& *Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008* by Alan Taylor and Moritz Schularick https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.102.2.1029 *European Monetary Unification* by Barry Eichengreen https://www.jstor.org/stable/2728243?seq=1 *Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu* by Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, and Emil Verner https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561560 David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Peter Conti-Brown – a legal scholar and financial historian at the University of Pennsylvania, as well as a Nonresident Fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution – returns to Macro Musings to discuss the new Fed-Treasury relationship that is emerging in the wake of the war against COVID-19. Peter and David breakdown the CARES Act, the aggressive and extensive policies recently taken by the Fed, and the implications for monetary policy moving forward. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Peter's Twitter: @PeterContiBrown Peter's Brookings profile: https://www.brookings.edu/author/peter-conti-brown/ Peter's Wharton profile: https://lgst.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/petercb/ Related Links: *Explaining the New Fed-Treasury Emergency Fund* by Peter Conti-Brown https://www.brookings.edu/research/explaining-the-new-fed-treasury-emergency-fund/ *What's the Fed Doing in Response to the COVID-19 Crisis? What More Could it Do?* by Jeffrey Cheng, Dave Skidmore, and David Wessel https://www.brookings.edu/research/fed-response-to-covid19/ *The Foreign Affairs of the Federal Reserve* by Peter Conti-Brown and David Zaring https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3169870 *Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics* by Oscar Jorda, Sanjay Singh, and Alan Taylor https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2020-09.pdf Bonus segment featuring Peter Conti-Brown: https://youtu.be/GJF2RlQ8po4 David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Skanda Amarnath is the Director of Research and Analysis at Employ America, Yakov Feygin is the Associate Director of the Future of Capitalism program at the Berggruen Institute, and Elizabeth Pancotti is a research assistant at the National Bureau of Economic Research and at Tufts University. Together, they have put together proposals on how to better address the challenges of the COVID-19 crisis at the state and local level. They join Macro Musings today to discuss these proposals, a municipal bond market and expanded unemployment insurance, as well as what it all means for making the US economy more of an optimal currency area. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Skanda's Twitter: @IrvingSwisher Skanda's Medium profile: https://medium.com/@skanda_97974 Yakov's Twitter: @BuddyYakov Yakov's Berggruen Institute profile: https://www.berggruen.org/people/yakov-feygin/ Elizabeth's Twitter: @ENPancotti Elizabeth's website: https://sites.google.com/view/elizabethpancotti/home Related Links: *The Fed Can and Should Support State Government Efforts to Respond to COVID-19 Right Now* by Skanda Amarnath and Yakov Feygin https://medium.com/@skanda_97974/the-fed-can-and-should-support-state-government-efforts-to-respond-to-covid-19-right-now-5e5ecf7b7ed8 *Unemployment Benefit Expansions: A Guide for Policy Responses in the Wake of COVID-19* by Elizabether Pancotti https://medium.com/@employamerica/unemployment-benefit-expansions-a-guide-for-policy-responses-in-the-wake-of-covid-19-ec3da6e8701 David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Jim Bianco, of Bianco Research, joins Macro Musings to discuss the latest on the economic impact from the coronavirus. David and Jim discuss the details and implications of the $2 Trillion Relief bill, the possibility of higher inflation, renewed threats to Fed independence, and implications for the Eurozone. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Jim's Twitter: @biancoresearch Jim's Bloomberg archive: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/authors/ABvwE0aTOvg/jim-bianco Related Links: *The Fed's Cure Risks Being Worse Than the Disease* by Jim Bianco https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-27/federal-reserve-s-financial-cure-risks-being-worse-than-disease David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Robin Brooks is a chief economist at the Institute of International Finance and has previously worked for Goldman Sachs and the IMF. Robin joins Macro Musings to talk about the global economic implications of the novel coronavirus. David and Robin also discuss what is happening to output gap measures, where the global dollar cycle stands today, and the importance of dollar swap lines for emerging markets. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Robin's Twitter: @RobinBrooksIIF Robin's IIF profile: https://www.iif.com/About-Us/Our-Leadership Related Links: *Federal Reserve Announces Extensive New Measures to Support the Economy* https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200323b.htm David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Stan Veuger is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute where he specializes in political economy and public finance. Stan joins us today to discuss his co-authored proposal to save American businesses and American jobs as well as his thoughts on how Europe is handling the crisis. Specifically, David and Stan discuss the Federal Reserve's ability to support targeted business loans, how the crisis has been panning out in Europe, and the timeline to global recovery. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Stan's Twitter: @stanveuger Stan's AEI profile: https://www.aei.org/profile/stan-veuger/ Related Links: *How to Help American Businesses Endure and Jobs Survive* by Stan Veuger and Steven Hamilton https://www.aei.org/economics/how-to-help-american-businesses-endure-and-jobs-survive/ *Throwing a COVID-19 Liquidity Life-Line* by Markus Brunnermeier, Jean-Pierre Landau, Marco Pagano, and Ricardo Reis https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/markus/files/covid_liquiditylifeline.pdf David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Claudia Sahm is the Director of Macroeconomic Policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth and formerly was a section chief at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Claudia specializes in macroeconomics and household finance, and joins the show today to talk about what the Fed has recently done and what fiscal policy can do in response to the economic meltdown caused by COVID-19. Specifically, David and Claudia discuss sending out direct payments to individuals, what the Fed's remaining toolkit may look like, and how the freshly minted Sahm Rule may be of paramount importance as this crisis continues to develop. Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings Claudia's Twitter: @Claudia_Sahm Claudia's Equitable Growth profile: https://equitablegrowth.org/people/claudia-sahm/ Related Links: *The Case for a Big Coronavirus Stimulus* by Jason Furman https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-case-for-a-big-coronavirus-stimulus-11583448500?mod=rsswn *Go Big Or Go Home* by Tim Duy https://blogs.uoregon.edu/timduyfedwatch/2020/03/16/go-big-or-go-home/ *COVID-19 Pandemic, Direct Cash Transfers, and the Federal Reserve* by David Beckworth https://www.mercatus.org/publications/monetary-policy/covid-19-pandemic-direct-cash-transfers-and-federal-reserve David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David's Blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

James Sweeney is the chief economist at Credit Suisse and joins us today as a part of our ongoing special coverage to talk about the coronavirus or COVID-19 and its implications for the economy. Specifically, David and James discuss what this pandemic means for the plumbing of the financial system, interest rates, and the type of recession we might experience. Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings James's Credit Suisse profile: https://www.credit-suisse.com/microsites/conferences/aic/en/speakers/cs-experts/james-sweeney.html Related Links: *Global Money Notes #27: Covid-19 and Global Dollar Funding* by Zoltan Pozsar and James Sweeney https://plus.credit-suisse.com/rpc4/ravDocView?docid=V7k0P32AC-WEqAJ7 David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Megan Greene is a senior fellow at Harvard University's Kennedy School and a senior fellow in international economics at Chatham House. Formerly, Megan was a chief economist on Wall Street and she currently has a bi-weekly column in the Financial Times on global macroeconomics. She joins the show today to talk about the coronavirus and the appropriate policy response to it as well as the future countercyclical macro policy in the United States. David and Megan also discuss the Fed's future framework, arguments against the recent 50 basis point rate cut, and why the Fed should consider following the ECB's lead on TLTROs as well as negative interest rates. Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings Megan's Twitter: @economistmeg Megan's website: https://economistmeg.com/about/ Related Links: *Coronavirus May Be Worse Than Wall Street Is Wagering* by Megan Greene https://www.ft.com/content/44c9391c-5489-11ea-a1ef-da1721a0541e David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Ben Moll is a professor of economics at the London School of Economics, and is well known for his work on income and wealth distribution in macroeconomics and its implications for policy. Ben joins the show today to talk about this work and provide a look into the growing field of heterogeneous agent models. David and Ben also discuss the history of macro thought, the implications of different transmission mechanisms of monetary policy, and what HANK models mean for forward guidance and other more general makeup policies. The transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings Ben's Twitter: @ben_moll Ben's LSE website: https://benjaminmoll.com/ Related Links: *Monetary Policy According to HANK* by Greg Kaplan, Ben Moll, and Giovanni Violante https://www.princeton.edu/~moll/HANK.pdf *Household Balance Sheet Channels of Monetary Policy: A Back of the Envelope Calculation for the Euro Area* by Jiri Slacalek, Oreste Tristani, and Giovanni Violante https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=14245 *Heterogeneous Agents Macroeconomics Has a Long History, and it Raises Many Questions* by Beatrice Cherrier https://beatricecherrier.wordpress.com/2018/11/28/heterogeneous-agent-macroeconomics-has-a-long-history-and-it-raises-many-questions/ David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth