Beyond Markets

Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve presidents have dampened expectations for a December rate cut, shifting market focus. The tech sector shows a growing split between sustainable businesses and speculative investments. China's stock market thrives on electrification and high-tech exports, attracting foreign investors looking for value. As small-cap stocks struggle with debt sensitivities, insights into AI's energy demands raise concerns about growth sustainability. Meanwhile, consumer spending data highlights resilience amidst uncertain market conditions.

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments. Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts Gold has been on a wild ride lately — surging past USD 4,000 an ounce before tumbling in one of its biggest corrections in years. What’s really driving this volatility, and how are the narratives around gold evolving?Chris Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading Asia, and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, discuss the changing forces behind gold’s rally — from questions over the Fed’s independence and fears of dollar debasement to the role of central bank buying and China’s strategic accumulation. The conversation also touches on the outlook and trends for silver and the broader precious metals market.This episode was recorded on Nov 10, 2025.(00:22) - Narratives driving the gold market (02:54) - Dollar resilience or temporary pause? (04:24) - Mixed signals from the Fed (06:04) - Do geopolitics really matter for gold? (07:18) - Central bank buying and structural trends (10:24) - China’s gold strategy (13:24) - ETF flows: Conviction or speculation? (15:54) - Chinese regulatory changes, and impact on precious metals landscape (17:56) - Section 232 and silver (21:14) - Is the mythical $50 level in silver still in play? (21:54) - Outlook and key takeaways

Recent consumer sentiment surveys highlight rising recession fears, even as other data suggests economic health. Job cuts have surged, with many attributing them to AI's growing role, particularly in tech and warehousing sectors. While AI might shift job landscapes, it won't drastically impact all industries just yet. Political implications are discussed, especially how AI-driven changes could influence young voters. Additionally, the Magnificent Seven tech giants continue to outperform, raising questions about market concentration.

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments. Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts The recent conclusion of China’s Fourth Plenum has shed light on the strategic direction of the 15th Five-Year Plan, highlighting key priorities such as boosting domestic consumption, advancing technological self-reliance, and expanding into new export markets. Following the Plenum, Chinese President Xi also met with US President Trump in South Korea, reaching a mutual agreement to pause key trade escalations for a year. What do these developments mean for the future of US-China relations, and can Chinese markets continue its bull run in 2026? This episode is presented by Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer and Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management Ltd.

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments. Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts Q3 US corporate earnings continue to report strong, with S&P 500 profits on track for 12% year-on-year growth and widespread beats on sales and margins. However, despite robust fundamentals, stocks reacting to positive reports have underperformed historically, weighed down by already-bullish investor positioning. An inverted put-call skew in the “Magnificent 7” suggests elevated optimism, often followed by short-term pullbacks. Meanwhile, fears of AI-fuelled overinvestment in tech appear overstated: while capital expenditure is rising, it remains modest as a share of revenue, free cash flow, and GDP. Looking at China, policy direction after the Fourth Plenum supports continued advancement in AI, semiconductors, and robotics, while the recent Xi-Trump meeting offers temporary relief on trade tensions. Though near-term consolidation is possible, structural drivers keep China tech and equities attractive for diversified portfolios.

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments. Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts October was a busy month for those involved in FX transactions and the vagaries of the precious metals markets. With the US Federal Reserve having started to lower rates and continuing expectations of a weakening dollar, how are investors positioning themselves as they head towards year end? In this episode of the Beyond Markets Podcast, Bernadette Anderko sits down with Tim Gagie, Head of FX and Precious Metals Sales at Julius Baer Geneva to discuss the challenges involved in reducing dollar exposure, what alternatives look interesting and of course, the explosive performance of gold in 2025 and how volatility is providing investors with interesting opportunities.(00:11) - Introduction (01:51) - Adjusting to further dollar weakness (03:00) - Is anyone actually selling the dollar? (03:56) - USD alternatives being investigated (04:59) - Emerging market currencies (06:25) - The situation in silver and gold (08:07) - What’s the key takeaway? (08:49) - Closing remarks For a general overview of how currency markets work, refer to our previous episode from July 2022 with Tim, titled ‘Currency matters’: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/currency-matters/id1552236298?i=1000568939307Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments. Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts 87% of the S&P 500 index companies that have reported their Q3 earnings thus far have beaten consensus forecasts - significantly higher than the 10-year average beat rate of 75%. Earnings growth is running at 9.2% year/year, vs. 7.9% that analysts had estimated prior to the start of the reporting season. The NASDAQ 100 index is also on track to post 7 consecutive months of gains. In each of the four times this had happened before, returns in the 12 months that followed were double-digit, averaging 17.5%.  This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments. Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts Recent bankruptcies of companies that accessed the private debt market are a reminder that manager selection is of the utmost importance. The real acid test for the private debt market will be the next recession, although there are no signs of one on the horizon. Still, the labour market is changing, and we look for a rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting on October 29, followed by another three by March. Alibaba claims to have invented a computing pooling solution that reduces the number of Nvidia GPUs needed to serve its AI models by 82%. An index of Hong Kong residential property infers prices are up 6% this month. This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments. Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts For the first time in five years, emerging market equities are outperforming their developed market peers. But what’s driving this rally? Interestingly enough, this boom is driven by a rather small number of stocks, mainly located in North Asia.In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Nenad Dinic, Emerging Market Equity Strategist and Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research Analyst, discuss with Ayako Lehmann why emerging market equities are having this strong run, to what extent developed markets are highly dependent on AI components coming from Asia and whether the usual commodities and macro factors that used to be the key drivers of EM equities have lost their importance or not and what this all means when it comes to diversifying a global portfolio.(00:11) - Introduction (01:23) - What drove past emerging markets equity rallies? (02:17) - What exactly has changed now? (03:31) - Is Asia matching the U.S. AI boom? (06:05) - Will Asia soon lead AI markets? (08:45) - Where is the U.S. & China story going? (11:36) - Will the shift in EM from commodities to tech remain? (16:41) - Is portfolio diversification with EM still relevant? (22:09) - Do we remain constructive on AI globally? (25:09) - Closing remarks Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments. Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify Subscribe to Moving Markets on Apple Podcasts As the third-quarter equity earnings season begins, we anticipate broadly supportive results, with a strong focus on the ongoing AI investment cycle and commentary from the hyperscalers. While revenue generation will be a key theme heading into 2026, significant execution risks remain despite the expansive opportunity set. Amid growing policy uncertainties in the United States, investors may find merit in diversifying portions of their equity exposure away from the US toward other markets, such as China, Switzerland, India, and Japan, where policy settings appear more favourable. In fixed income, listed corporate credit continues to look attractive, supported by tightening spreads and limited new supply. This episode is presented by Bhaskar Laxminarayan, Chief Investment Officer Asia and Middle East at Julius Baer.