On The Market

Bank failures were a thing of the past—until a couple of weeks ago. After Silicon Valley Bank’s (SVB) fall from grace and numerous other regional and small-time banks going under, Americans are holding their cash with an iron grip, not knowing whether or not a recession or soft landing could be on the horizon. And with more economic instability comes more fear, panic, and doubt from the general public. Thankfully, we’ve got Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, to share some economic truths (instead of crash-fueled terror). Mark knows the economy inside and out and understands the true impact behind these bank crashes. He gives his opinions on whether or not this series of bank crashes could lead to an even greater recession, why the government was forced to build a bailout, and how real estate and the economy will be affected as we try to rebuild from this fragile system collapsing. And, if you’re worried that the big banks could start to crumble under their own weight, Mark has some information that’ll quell your fears.But we’re not just hitting on bank news. Mark shares how a “slowcession” could occur throughout the US, leading to a lackluster economy as unemployment grows and GDP growth slows. He also gives mortgage rate predictions and discusses the one real estate type that could be in BIG trouble over the next few years. In This Episode We CoverSilicon Valley Bank’s (SVB) collapse explained and why big banks aren’t worried The social-medial-fueled panic and fear cycle that is hurting the economy The bright side of a bank bailout and how to avoid a systematic collapse Recessions vs. “slowcessions” and why the latter WON’T be a soft landing Real estate prices and which property type could go BUST over the next few yearsMortgage rate predictions and why we wouldn’t hold our breath on three-percent rates And So Much More!Links from the ShowFind an Investor-Friendly Real Estate AgentBiggerPockets ForumsBiggerPockets AgentBiggerPockets BootcampsJoin BiggerPockets for FREEOn The MarketJoin the Future of Real Estate Investing with FundriseConnect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” ForumsSubscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube ChannelDave’s BiggerPockets ProfileDave’s InstagramSVB’s Risky Bailout and The Bank Run “Domino Effect”How Did A $200B+ Bank Collapse In 48 Hours?Connect with Mark:Mark's WebsiteMark's PodcastCheck the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-89Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Unemployment was supposed to be much higher by now. With the Federal Reserve increasing its rate hikes over 2022 and into 2023, the labor market should have cracked already. But it hasn’t, and many mainstream investors have struggled to determine why. With a higher cost of capital, businesses should be more selective with who they’re hiring and keeping, but instead, we’re seeing the labor market have much more power than they’ve had in the past. So, did we successfully dodge an employment crisis, or is a rude awakening coming our way?Joe Brusuelas, principal and chief economist for RSM US LLP, knows that we’re thinking about unemployment all wrong. As a leading economist with over twenty years of experience, Joe has seen multiple recessions, crashes, and unemployment crises. He knows exactly what it would take to make the labor market snap and push the country into a recession. Joe breaks down precisely what the Federal Reserve has been planning, when its interest rate hikes will finally take effect, and what the future of the labor market looks like.He also touches on how we may be entering an entirely different era of the economy, one with tight employment, higher interest rates, and higher inflation than we’ve been used to. This directly affects almost every consumer in America, and investors can get ahead of the economy by knowing when this unemployment scale will finally balance. So don’t sit on the sidelines and be surprised when these economic forces take shape. Tune in!In This Episode We CoverWhy unemployment has been so low and when the Fed’s interest rate hikes will kick inHow employment is calculated and why qualified workers are so hard to find “Labor hoarding” and the real reason big tech is so easily laying off workers Unemployment rate predictions and whether it’ll be like the last recession Entering a new era of the economy and why higher inflation, interest rates, and employment could be in our future US immigration and how restricting foreign worker flow has caused a “tight” labor market And So Much More!Links from the ShowFind an Investor-Friendly Real Estate AgentBiggerPockets ForumsBiggerPockets AgentBiggerPockets BootcampsJoin BiggerPockets for FREEOn The MarketJoin the Future of Real Estate Investing with FundriseConnect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” ForumsSubscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube ChannelDave’s BiggerPockets ProfileDave’s InstagramHow the Unemployment Rate Affects Us All (Yes, Even the Employed)Connect with Joe:Joe's ArticlesJoe's Email Joe's Twitter Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-88Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Both SVB (Silicon Valley Bank) and Signature Bank have crashed and burned dramatically over the past week. What once was a few large customers making withdrawals quickly turned into a bank run of epic proportions. Within just a few days, SVB went from one of the largest banks in the United States to one of the biggest bank failures in the nation’s history. But what led to such a fast-paced collapse, and are more banks on the chopping block?You don’t need to be an expert economist to understand what happened at SVB and Signature Bank this week. But you will want to hear Dave Meyer’s take on what could come next. With bailouts back on the table, many Americans fear we’re on the edge of a total financial collapse, mirroring what unfolded in 2008. With more and more Americans going on cash grabs, trying to keep their wealth safe from the “domino effect” of bank failures, what should everyday investors prepare for?More specifically, for our beloved real estate investors, how could SVB’s failure affect the housing market? Will the Federal Reserve finally be forced to end its aggressive rate hikes? Could money flood into real estate as hard assets become more attractive? Stick around as Dave explains this week’s wild events and what it could mean for the future of the US economy.In This Episode We CoverSVB’s (Silicon Valley Bank) collapse explained and why it failed so fast The bank run “domino effect” that could put other intuitions at risk Why a “bailout” happened so quickly, and whether customer funds were secured Bond yields and why making long-term investments was a risky bet for SVB The future of mortgage rates and how SVB’s failure could lead to fewer rate hikes The psychology behind a bank failure and how it affects the entire economyAnd So Much More!Links from the ShowFind an Investor-Friendly Real Estate AgentBiggerPockets ForumsBiggerPockets AgentBiggerPockets BootcampsJoin BiggerPockets for FREEOn The MarketJoin the Future of Real Estate Investing with FundriseConnect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” ForumsSubscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube ChannelDave’s BiggerPockets ProfileDave’s InstagramHow Did A $200B+ Bank Collapse In 48 Hours? Is Real Estate Going To Be Impacted?Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-87Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The housing market is stuck in a standoff. On one side, you have buyers, repeatedly beaten with high home prices, higher mortgage rates, and almost non-existent affordability. On the other, you have the sellers, who are sitting on low-interest-rate mortgages, unwilling to take a price lower than they want, waiting for rates to come back down, so the bidding wars begin all over again. This standoff has caused the housing market to come to a halt, with inventory at unbelievably low levels and no one willing to buy or sell.But weren’t we supposed to be past this? When rates dropped earlier this year, the housing market looked like it was on a fast track to a real estate revival. But now, homebuyers, sellers, and investors don’t know where to turn. And that’s precisely why we brought on HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami, the one person who knows the real estate market better than the rest. Last time we had Logan on, he debunked the claim of a 2008-style housing crash repeat, and now, he’s on to forecast when the housing market could finally reach a healthy point again.Logan knows why homeowners aren’t selling, why buyers aren’t bidding, and when mortgage rates will come back down. With some simple stats and data, Logan lays out almost exactly what would have to happen for us to enter a normal housing market and gives a rough timeline of when we can expect these changes to take place. And if you’re still on the “it’s gonna crash!” bandwagon, we’d suggest sticking around for Logan’s full explanation, as it may completely reverse what you thought was conceivable.In This Episode We CoverMortgage rate forecasts and what has to “break” for rates to come back downForeclosures, distressed sellers, and why there isn’t more inventory on the market Homebuyers vs. sellers and why neither of these two will make moves until the other does2008 vs. 2023 and why a Great Recession repeat is a lot less likely than you think What could cause affordability to rise and help homebuyers get into properties Rent growth declines and why rents are starting to stall even as homebuying becomes challenging The commercial real estate “crash” and which sector is most primed for price cuts  And So Much More!Links from the ShowFind an Investor-Friendly Real Estate AgentBiggerPockets ForumsBiggerPockets AgentBiggerPockets BootcampsJoin BiggerPockets for FREEOn The MarketJoin the Future of Real Estate Investing with FundriseConnect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” ForumsSubscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube ChannelDave’s BiggerPockets ProfileDave’s InstagramKathy's BiggerPockets ProfileKathy's InstagramOn the Market 14 with LoganConnect with Logan:Logan WebsiteHousing Market TrackerCheck the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-86Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Check out our sponsor page! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This housing market is a tough nut to crack. One week, rates are coming back down, buyers are gearing up to re-enter the real estate market, and investors are feeling optimistic. Then, the following week, inflation spikes, mortgage rates jump, and affordability plummets back down to a depressing level. Because of this topsy-turvy economy we find ourselves in, we get a slew of questions on almost every episode asking us to predict what will happen next. And today, the entire On the Market panel has flown out to Denver to get this live debate going.That’s right. Dave Meyer is joined by Henry Washington, James Dainard, Jamil Damji, and Kathy Fettke to pop some bottles, rock some chains (thank you, James), and give you up-to-date info on the housing market. We’ve taken a few of our favorite questions from the comment section and got the panel’s opinions on some of today’s most pressing topics. First, we’ll talk about why new homes are cheaper than existing homes in many markets and whether or not this is a red flag for the housing market.Then, we enter lender territory and discuss which markets are seeing new down payment requirements and which allow you to still score deals at ten to fifteen percent down. We’ll also revisit the commercial real estate crash and what could happen once these massive balloon payments come due. But don’t worry, there’s still some optimism afoot, as a couple of our expert guests predict a housing market boom could be coming in only a matter of months. So, don’t get caught in the rocky waves of this real estate market; tune in to get the scoop on everything happening on the market.  In This Episode We CoverThe incoming housing market “boom” that could start another buying frenzyNew construction vs. existing homes and which is a safer bet as a new investorDown payment requirements and why so many lenders are asking for more The commercial real estate crash and how it could create insane deals for investors with cash on handThe state of the economy and why there’s so much contradictory data pointing in different directionsWhy you should always buy two plane tickets when planning your next tripAnd So Much More!Links from the ShowFind an Investor-Friendly Real Estate AgentBiggerPockets ForumsBiggerPockets AgentBiggerPockets BootcampsJoin BiggerPockets for FREEOn The MarketJoin the Future of Real Estate Investing with FundriseConnect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” ForumsSubscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube ChannelDave’s BiggerPockets ProfileDave’s InstagramHenry's BiggerPockets ProfileHenry's InstagramJamil's BiggerPockets ProfileJamil's InstagramKathy's BiggerPockets ProfileKathy's InstagramJames' BiggerPockets ProfileJames' InstagramAttend a BiggerPockets MeetupGrab Dave’s “2023 State of Real Estate Investing Report”On the Market Podcast 65 with Ben Miller (Deleveraging)On the Market Podcast 71 with Brian Burke (Multifamily BOMB)Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-85Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Check out our sponsor page! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The 2023 recession is off to a strange start. Homebuyer activity has rallied, consumer spending is up, and unemployment is low. Is a recession really on the way, and if so, has anyone told the Fed what's happening in today’s economy? With a good chunk of economists still betting on a recession in 2023, who’s right and who’s wrong? And if there isn’t a recession incoming, can real estate investors take advantage of this artificial instability to get even better deals done?We’re back with our panel of experts, Henry Washington, Jamil Damji, and Kathy Fettke, to get their take on whether or not this period of economic uncertainty is over. Back in 2022, with mortgage rates picking up, inflation hitting decade-long highs, and the housing market starting to stutter, most Americans were right to believe that we were on the cusp of a recession. And real estate investors were doing deals left and right, trying to get as many homes under contract for the lowest price.And only a few months later, things have started to change, but investors are still getting incredible deals done, and if you tune into this episode, you can too! We talk about how this “white-collar recession” is causing more profit than panic for investors and why many Americans don’t “feel” we’re in an economic downturn. Our expert guests even give their best predictions on what could happen this year and into the next. So if you want to take home some SERIOUS profits like our guests did in the last crash, listen up! In This Episode We CoverA 2022 economic recap and why Americans didn’t react as they did during the last recessionTesting today’s recession sentiment using the “underwear” theory Whether or not we’re in a recession and why real estate is always “first in, first out”The 2023 economy, housing market predictions, and why recession indicators don’t always work How to invest in 2023 and what our expert guests are doing to build wealth while markets are downPassive investing and why Dave’s private money lending bet could pay off as mortgage rates rise And So Much More!Links from the ShowFind an Investor-Friendly Real Estate AgentBiggerPockets ForumsBiggerPockets AgentBiggerPockets BootcampsJoin BiggerPockets for FREEOn The MarketJoin the Future of Real Estate Investing with FundriseConnect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” ForumsSubscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube ChannelDave’s BiggerPockets ProfileDave’s InstagramHenry's BiggerPockets ProfileHenry's InstagramJamil's BiggerPockets ProfileJamil's InstagramKathy's BiggerPockets ProfileKathy's InstagramAttend a BiggerPockets MeetupWhy This Recession is a HUGE Opportunity for InvestorsCheck the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-84Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Check out our sponsor page! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The 2023 economy doesn’t fit what the forecasters were predicting. Inflation was up, but now it’s coming back down, interest rates keep rising, but homebuyer demand is coming back? As if there wasn’t enough contradictory data, employment is holding steady while we should be in a recession. What’s really happening behind the scenes, and how can you use economic headwinds to build wealth faster while everyone else braces for an impact that may never come?We’re back with Fundrise CEO Ben Miller to discuss the three economic scenarios EVERY investor should plan for in 2023. Ben has learned something new about the economy (and himself) during every past crash. In the 90s, when real estate took a hit, young Ben was too carefree to be concerned. Then, when 2008 came around, Ben was left with scars from the market crash carnage. Now, after the 2020 flash crash and into a potential 2023 market crash, Ben knows better and is making bets that’ll make him, his company, and his investors very wealthy.Ben thinks it’s a mistake that most investors simply put one scenario forward when investing. He tells tales of some of the greatest investors using basic scenario planning to make a killing during any economy. In this episode, he’ll run through exactly how you can do this and why thinking in bets may be one of the best moves you can ever make. So, even if a housing market crash does come, you’ll be prepared not just to survive but thrive.In This Episode We CoverWhy we aren’t in a recession yet and the contradictory crash indicatorsScenario planning 101 and the three types of outcomes EVERY investor should plan forThinking in bets and why a “black swan event” is much closer than most people thinkWhat could lead to an economic recession and why it’s getting impossible to predict oneThe best asset classes to invest in during 2023 and why institutional investors are taking big bets on debtWhy base hit real estate deals will make you rich, but home run potential should always be taken advantage ofAnd So Much More!Links from the ShowFind an Investor-Friendly Real Estate AgentBiggerPockets ForumsBiggerPockets AgentBiggerPockets BootcampsJoin BiggerPockets for FREEOn The MarketJoin the Future of Real Estate Investing with FundriseConnect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” ForumsSubscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube ChannelDave’s BiggerPockets ProfileDave’s InstagramAttend a BiggerPockets MeetupOn the Market 33 with Ben on Build-to-RentOn the Market 65 with Ben on DeleveragingOn the Market 76 with NFL PanelBooks Mentioned in the ShowThe Psychology of Money by Morgan HouselThe Art of the Long View by Peter SchwartzAntifragile by Nassim Nicholas Nicholas TalebConnect with Ben:Ben’s TwitterBen’s LinkedInBen’s EmailBen’s BiggerPockets ProfileCheck the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-83Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Check out our sponsor page! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The housing market crash may be over already. With mortgage rates steadily dropping, buyer demand picking up, and competition creeping back in, this housing correction could have been one of the fastest and least severe downturns we’ve ever witnessed. Top forecasters have hinted at the housing market bottoming out, with some claiming that the “thawing” has already begun—but the data may point to something different. While there are signs of improvement compared to where we stood just a few months ago, some glaringly obvious data points could make this a much closer call than mainstream forecasters think.Dave Meyer, your sandwich-eating, data-delving host, wanted to know precisely what would cause the housing market to hit its floor. He looks at both the demand and supply side of the housing market, touching on the variables that genuinely make a difference. We’re talking about mortgage rates, housing affordability, loan applications, housing supply, active listings, and more. But you don’t need a degree in Data Science to understand what’s happening behind the scenes.Dave will explain exactly what is (and isn’t) impacting the housing market, what changes led to the state we’re in, and four scenarios that could play out in 2023 that might put a nail in this theory’s coffin. Betting on the housing market bottoming out? We’d suggest hearing the full story before you make your next investment.In This Episode We CoverWhy top housing market forecasters believe that the housing market has found its bottomMortgage rate updates and why interest rates are falling while the Fed introduces more rate hikesHousing affordability and why we may be moving away from the record-breaking unaffordability of late 2022Mortgage applications and why homebuyers have decided to come back in 2023Housing inventory and why more listings and longer days on market could suggest we aren’t through a correction just yetThe four scenarios that could play out in 2023 (and which is the MOST likely)And So Much More!Links from the ShowFind an Investor-Friendly Real Estate AgentBiggerPockets ForumsBiggerPockets AgentBiggerPockets BootcampsJoin BiggerPockets for FREEOn The MarketJoin the Future of Real Estate Investing with FundriseConnect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” ForumsSubscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube ChannelDave’s BiggerPockets ProfileDave’s InstagramAltos ResearchGoldman SachsMortgage Bankers AssociationWSJCheck the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-82Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Check out our sponsor page! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The housing market has entered into a new era never measured before. As of a recent update from Moody’s Analytics, the rent-to-income ratio across the US has reached an average of 30%. And while this may not seem like a big deal to casual investors, it has wide-reaching implications that could cause the housing market to move in different directions. This is the first time a rent-to-income ratio has hit this high percentage point, which could spell bad news for landlords.Lu Chen and Thomas LaSalvia from Moody’s Commercial Real Estate division are joining us to explain the entire story behind the data. They have been closely monitoring the steadily rising rent prices for decades. With pandemic-fueled migration, Lu and Thomas both believe that we’re living in one of the most troubling times for renters. But how did this come to be? With massive housing development across the nation, what’s causing rents to remain so high? The answer isn’t what you might expect.Lu and Thomas have seen developers shift focus to certain housing types, leaving much of the middle class in a rent squeeze. This “missing middle” could explain why so many families are paying a solid portion of their income to rent every month. But with reasonably priced rentals becoming a hot commodity, what can landlords do to ease the burden and open up more housing for those who need it most? And where will rent head next after it’s broken through this previously unshatterable ceiling? Tune in and find out!In This Episode We CoverHousing affordability and why America just crossed into “rent-burdened” territory The “ecosystem effect” and how pricier developments hurt the middle classHousing demand and why work-from-home hotspots put strain on the system Housing markets where rent is declining and the rent-to-income ratio is weakening Where Americans are moving to and why some millennials are staying away from the suburbs  Real estate development and which housing types are getting built Comparing today’s rent crisis to 2008 and why a housing correction doesn’t always equal a rent crash And So Much More!Links from the ShowFind an Investor-Friendly Real Estate AgentBiggerPockets ForumsBiggerPockets AgentBiggerPockets BootcampsJoin BiggerPockets for FREEOn The MarketJoin the Future of Real Estate Investing with FundriseConnect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” ForumsSubscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube ChannelDave’s BiggerPockets ProfileDave’s InstagramMoody's CRE WebsiteKey Takeaways from 4th QuarterConnect with Lu and Thomas:Lu's EmailThomas' EmailCheck the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-81Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Check out our sponsor page! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Coliving has often been thought of as solely student housing. When you mention this strategy to investors, they think of house parties, dirty dishes, constant complaints, and a whole lot of maintenance. But ask Jay Chang from Tripalink, and he’s got a different story to tell. Jay works to develop the best coliving communities in the United States, securing a lower-rent option for his tenants and a high cash flow investment for his investors. He’s seen how coliving projects are built, managed, and maintained, and he may completely change your mind on this concept.For expensive areas like Los Angeles, New York, and Seattle, finding an affordable place to live as a student or entry-level worker is near impossible. Your options? Spend the majority of your salary on a studio apartment, live with your friends who haven’t vacuumed in three years, or move into a coliving apartment. The latter offers upscale amenities, daily or weekly cleaning, private rooms, and a high cash flow solution for landlords in pricey markets.Still have your doubts? Jay touches on the untrue myths associated with coliving, why vacancy is near-zero, property management and maintenance, and why this investing niche could be close to exploding as the economy takes a tumble. This strategy could take your real estate portfolio to the next level if you’re in an expensive market, college town, or densely-populated area.In This Episode We CoverA quick housing market update and why buyers are jumping back in Coliving explained and why young professionals and students need a new option for housingThe stigmas associated with coliving and why almost all of them are untrueThe luxury amenities that coliving offers and how it keeps vacancy at rock-bottom ratesProperty management when coliving and how to deal with tenant issuesConverting your single-family home into coliving and the cost you can expectHouse hacking and how to start coliving on a smaller scaleWhere to invest in coliving and how to get in before this industry takes offAnd So Much More!Links from the ShowFind an Investor-Friendly Real Estate AgentBiggerPockets ForumsBiggerPockets AgentBiggerPockets BootcampsJoin BiggerPockets for FREEOn The MarketJoin the Future of Real Estate Investing with FundriseConnect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” ForumsSubscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube ChannelDave’s BiggerPockets ProfileDave’s InstagramHenry's BiggerPockets ProfileHenry's InstagramCo-Living Could Become The Future Of Real EstateDouble Your Rental Income with Co-Living Cash FlowBuild a Six-Figure Student Housing Portfolio in Just Eight StepsRead Jay’s Articles on BiggerPocketsConnect with Jay:Jay's BiggerPockets ProfileJay's LinkedInCheck the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-80Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Check out our sponsor page! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices