Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

Contrary to a lot of expectations, we already seem to know the basic shape of American government going forward, with Donald Trump as President with a Republican Senate and (likely) a marginally Republican House. In this podcast episode, the Inflation Guy addresses the initial market moves, which he characterizes as the "Trump caricature" response, and explains which of these moves make sense, and which are likely senseless knee-jerk reactions to cartoonish representations of Trump's likely priorities come January 20th. NOTES Ashton, Michael, The Efficient Tariff: Systematically Balancing Security and Welfare Concerns (March 1, 1992). The American Economist, Vol 36, No 1, 1992, pp 44-52. , Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2915287 Blog post on sizing positions when volatility changes: “Kicking Tails” (Feb 2018) https://inflationguy.blog/2018/02/12/kicking-tails/ Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (September 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/10/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-september-2024/ ) Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/    (we may close up subscriptions to this soon) To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

This discussion dives into the latest Consumer Price Index report and the perplexities of inflation trends. The analysts reveal surprising rises in core inflation and unpack how various costs, like housing and college tuition, might shape future trends. They caution against jumping to conclusions about the Fed’s recent interest rate cut, suggesting it could be a misstep amid emerging economic pressures. A thoughtful analysis of data context uncovers the potential pitfalls of cognitive biases in understanding inflation.

In this discussion, Chris Clothier, Co-CIO of CG Asset Management, shares his expertise on the role of inflation-linked bonds in portfolio construction. He delves into their advantages and risks, emphasizing how they provide inflation protection during economic downturns. The conversation also touches on macroeconomic trends reshaping strategies, the implications of globalization's end, and how historical connections to inflation can inform today's investing. Clothier’s insights are invaluable for anyone looking to navigate the complexities of modern finance.

A rogue's gallery of inflation hucksters have made lots of money over the years by preying on the sense that the average consumer/investor has that "my inflation is higher than the CPI," with some spin usually on how the gov'mint is intentionally understating inflation for some nefarious reason. These hucksters take advantage of the fact that, for reasons that are so native to the economic system that Daniel Kahneman won a Nobel Prize for describing them, consumers perceptions are not just biased, but biased in systematic ways - which, in the case of inflation, always tends to increase the perceived level of inflation. In this episode of Cents and Sensibility, the Inflation Guy explains how these biases operate on our sense of inflation. If you too want to sound erudite at your next cocktail party - "Actually, Muffy, inflation just seems like it's 10% because..." - then this is a must-listen episode. If not, then you're also probably invited to more cocktail parties than the Inflation Guy is.   NOTES Ashton, Michael, “Real-Feel” Inflation: Quantitative Estimation of Inflation Perceptions, Business Economics, Volume 47, pages 14–26, (2012)  (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/be.2011.35 ) Blog callback: Eighth Grade Math vs Shadowstats (https://inflationguy.blog/2021/05/25/eighth-grade-math-vs-shadowstats/ ) Podcast callback: Ep. 72: Chapwood Index vs CPI – Which is the Better Inflation Index?     (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-72-chapwood-index-vs-cpi-%e2%80%93-which-is-the-better-inflation-index/ ) Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (August 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/09/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-august-2024/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/    (we may close up subscriptions to this soon) To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Join The Inflation Guy, a seasoned expert in analyzing economic trends, as he breaks down the latest CPI report with sharp insights. He reveals why the recent inflation numbers may not be as alarming as they seem and what that means for potential Federal Reserve interest rate changes. The conversation highlights the vital role of shelter in core inflation and discusses how mixed signals in core goods and rental costs could impact economic decisions. Tune in for a balanced view that challenges common inflation narratives!

The August vacation time is over, and we now hurtle into the unknown last third of the year. The Inflation Guy starts this journey by clearing his desk of the small inflation stories that are interesting and worth discussing, but don't by themselves warrant a full episode. He discusses power, supply chains, price-linked currencies, Japan's experience with trying to get more inflation, and sticky renters. Enjoy, and find all of the links to the source articles below!   NOTES Blog Post: “A Price-Linked USD” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/08/28/a-price-linked-usd/ ) WSJ Article: “Pay Your Rent, Get 2% Cash Back: Landlords Join Craze for Rewards” (https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/pay-your-rent-get-2-cash-back-landlords-join-craze-for-rewards-8bf68ee3) Utility Dive: “PJM capacity prices hit record highs, sending build signal to generators” (https://www.utilitydive.com/news/pjm-interconnection-capacity-auction-vistra-constellation/722872/ ) Reuters: “US importers balk at return of $10,000 container shipping rate” (https://www.reuters.com/business/us-importers-balk-return-10000-container-shipping-rate-2024-07-15/ ) NY Times “Japan Wanted Higher Inflation. It’s Here, and It Hurts.” (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/29/business/japan-inflation-rates.html ) Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (July 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/08/14/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-july-2024/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/    (we may close up subscriptions to this soon) To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

It's time for another CPI Report analysis, and the Inflation Guy wades through the confusing report to conclude that...it's not quite as good as it looks. In Episode 106, he talked about a "Potential Pony Situation." Is this a reverse pony situation? What the heck does that even mean? Who writes this stuff?   NOTES Podcast Callback: “Ep. 106: This Month's CPI Report - A Potential Pony Situation” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-106-this-months-cpi-report-a-potential-pony-situation/ ) Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (July 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/08/14/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-july-2024/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

In this episode of Cents and Sensibility, the Inflation Guy begins by addressing the recent stock market sell-off and tells you what is really causing it. Hint: he told you in Episode 116 it was going to happen. And: if we are actually headed into a recession and possibly a bear market, what does that mean for inflation? Keep your eyes on the macro, not the micro. The Inflation Guy tells you what that means. NOTES Podcast Callback: “Ep. 116: Political Volatility” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-116-political-volatility/ ) Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (June 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/07/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-june-2024/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Perhaps a little less coffee would be in order. The Inflation Guy in this episode wanders through several topics, including the Biden Administration's proposal for national rent control, the eviction moratorium, different measures of rent inflation, market volatility and where to hide for the next 110 days until the US election. Focus, man, focus. Still, he has useful contributions on these topics! Listen and see.   NOTES Podcast Callback: “Ep. 37: Bad Idea of the Year - Wage and Price Controls” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-37-bad-idea-of-the-year-wage-and-price-controls/ ) Podcast Callback: “Ep. 7: Rents and Sensibility” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-7-rents-and-sensibility/ ) Podcast Callback: “Ep. 74: Inflation Folk Remedies” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep74-inflation-folk-remedies/ ) (This is the one the IG mentioned where he discusses ATRR and NTRR). Blog Post: “The Residual Effect on Rent Inflation of the Eviction Moratorium” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/07/18/the-residual-effect-on-rent-inflation-of-the-eviction-moratorium/ ) Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (June 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/07/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-june-2024/ ) Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today” To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

It's that time again, and even though the punditry is now fixated more on the Unemployment Report than the inflation reports, the Inflation Guy doesn't have the trademark or the expertise to be The Unemployment Guy so this podcast is sticking to its knitting. This month's CPI report was the best we have seen in some time, and largely for the right reasons. Are there still things that need to happen for us to be safely on the road to low-and-stable inflation? Yes indeed - and the Inflation Guy discusses those things in this episode.   NOTES Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (June 2024) Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today” To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/