Europe Inside Out

With key elections approaching across Europe, radical-right parties are poised to maintain and even expand their political influence. Rosa Balfour, Catherine Fieschi, and Cas Mudde explore whether a more right-leaning EU constitutes an existential threat, or if such concerns are overstated. Catherine Fieschi, Cas Mudde, March 19, 2026, "Is the Radical-Right Threat Existential or Overstated?," Carnegie Europe. Rosa Balfour, January 24, 2026, "The EU Finally Used an Economic Threat Against Trump. But the Markets Forced His Climbdown," The Guardian. Rosa Balfour, Stefan Lehne, Elena Ventura, September 22, 2025 "The European Radical Right in the Age of Trump 2.0," Carnegie Europe. Rosa Balfour, April 30, 2025, "Europe Tried to Trump-Proof Itself. Now It’s Crafting a Plan B," Emissary, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Rosa Balfour and Stefan Lehne, April 18, 2024, "Charting the Radical Right’s Influence on EU Foreign Policy," Carnegie Europe. Catherine Fieschi, April 10, 2025, "What Le Pen’s Sentence Means for the Rule of Law in Europe," Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe. Catherine Fieschi, August 16, 2023, "Populocracy," Agenda Publishing. Cas Mudde, December 4, 2024, "Democracy is in a doom spiral—but it isn’t dead yet," Prospect Magazine. Cas Mudde, September 2019, "The Far Right Today," Polity.

The Iranian nuclear deal was the last issue where Europe could realistically claim to have diplomatic influence. Rym Momtaz, Pierre Vimont, and Maha Yahya debate whether the war in Iran has left Europe irrelevant on the global stage. [00:00:00] Intro, [00:00:51] The Current Situation in Lebanon and the Region, [00:09:16] Is Europe Now Irrelevant in the Region?, [00:25:54] The Role of the Gulf and the Future of the Region. Maha Yahya, March 4, 2026, “How Is the War Playing Out in Iran?”, Inside Story, Al Jazeera English. Pierre Vimont, March 3, 2026, “Europe on Iran : Gone with the Wind”, Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe. Rosa Balfour, February 8, 2026, “Dependence on the United States is Deeply Rooted in the European Mindset”, Le Monde. Rosa Balfour, January 6, 2026, “The Cost of Europe’s Weak Venezuela Response”, Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe. Pierre Vimont, October 15, 2024, “The EU Needs an Interagency Process for Foreign Policy”, Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe. Pierre Vimont, October 10, 2023, “Europe’s Moment of Powerlessness in the Middle East”, Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

The EU and its member states are weighing the costs and benefits of offering Ukraine a fast-track accession process, while also considering how to manage relations with other candidate countries. Rosa Balfour, Sylvie Goulard, and Gerald Knaus examine how further enlargement could shape the EU’s cohesion, decisionmaking capacity, and ability to act effectively on the global stage. [00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:02] Could a Smaller EU Be Stronger than an Enlarged Bloc?, [00:32:37] The Future of EU Enlargement. Rosa Balfour, March 25, 2025, “The Case for Europe,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe. Rosa Balfour, October 3, 2024, “EU Should Enlarge, Even Out of Despair,” Visegrad Insight. Dimitar Bechev, Iliriana Gjoni, October 28, 2025, “How the Western Balkans Can Contribute to European Defense,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe. Stefan Lehne, Zoran Nechev, Richard Grieveson, August 27, 2025, “Access Before Accession: Rethinking the EU’s Gradual Integration,” Carnegie Europe. Rym Momtaz, February 10, 2026, “To Survive, the EU Must Split,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

The peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan, initialed in August 2025, represents a major turning point for the South Caucasus.Thomas de Waal, Zaur Shiriyev, and Areg Kochinyan discuss the role Europe can play in supporting normalization and advancing infrastructure development across the region.[00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:37] The Armenia-Azerbaijan Normalization, [00:11:23] New Connectivity Projects in the South Caucasus, [00:19:31] Europe’s Role in Supporting the Peace Process.Zaur Shiriyev, February 3, 2026, “Europe Falls Behind in the South Caucasus Connectivity Race,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.Thomas de Waal, December 16, 2025, “Trump’s Peace Lessons for Europe,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.Zaur Shiriyev and Philip Gamaghelyan, December 4, 2025, “Strategic Directions for Building Sustainable Peace Between Armenia and Azerbaijan,” Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.Thomas de Waal, November 13, 2025, “Armenia’s Election Is a Foreign Affair,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.Thomas de Waal, September 22, 2025, “An Unlikely Road to Peace for Armenia and Azerbaijan,” Foreign Affairs.Philip Gamaghelyan and Zaur Shiriyev, August 7, 2025, “As They Edge Toward Peace, Armenia and Azerbaijan Must Resist Old Habits,” Emissary, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Zaur Shiriyev, May 26, 2025, “The Precarious Power of Azerbaijan,” Foreign Affairs.Thomas de Waal, March 17, 2025, “Armenia and Azerbaijan’s Major Step Forward,” Emissary, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Areg Kochinyan, July 12, 2024, “Why the World Must Support Armenia’s Defeated Democracy Against Russian Hybrid Warfare,” Conflict and Civicness Research Blog, London School of Economics and Political Science.Areg Kochinyan, May 21, 2024, “Armenia Should Use This Window of Opportunity to Leave Russia’s Orbit,” Politika, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

Jan Techau, a European security and geopolitics expert, and Nathalie Tocci, an EU foreign policy scholar, discuss transatlantic trust breakdowns. They cover shocking US moves that rattled Europe, whether Europe can detach from the United States, defense spending versus dependence, competitiveness shortfalls, rising radical-right risks, and paths for diversification and strategic autonomy.

AI-powered technologies are transforming the nature of warfare, with profound implications for European security and the EU’s regulatory framework.Thomas de Waal, Raluca Csernatoni, and Jessica Dorsey examine how these dual-use systems blur civilian and military lines, and their implications for strategic, legal, and ethical accountability.[00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:40] The Evolution of AI on the Battlefield, [00:08:48] Responsibility Gaps on the Use of AI, [00:20:48] Can Europe Play a Role in Regulating AI?Raluca Csernatoni, October 30, 2025, “Corporate Geopolitics: When Billionaires Rival States,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.Raluca Csernatoni et al., September 1, 2025, “Tech Diplomacy 2.0: Examining the Intersections Between Industry and Governments in International Relations,” International Journal of Cyber Diplomacy.Raluca Csernatoni et al., September 1, 2025, “The Future of Foreign Policy in the Age of Emerging and Disruptive Technologies,” EU Cyber Direct.Raluca Csernatoni et al., August 11, 2025, “Myth, Power, and Agency: Rethinking Artificial Intelligence, Geopolitics and War,” Minds and Machines.Raluca Csernatoni, May 20, 2025, “The EU’s AI Power Play: Between Deregulation and Innovation,” Carnegie Europe.Raluca Csernatoni, July 17, 2024, “Governing Military AI Amid a Geopolitical Minefield,” Carnegie Europe.Jessica Dorsey, January 13, 2026, "The erosion of human(e) judgement in targeting? Quantification logics, AI-enabled decision support systems and proportionality assessments in IHL," Cambridge University Press.Jessica Dorsey, December 14, 2025, “Drug Boats, Drone Strikes and the Dangers of Avoiding Mirrors,” Opinio Juris.Jessica Dorsey, June 27, 2025, “AI-Enabled Decision-Support Systems in the Joint Targeting Cycle: Legal Challenges, Risks, and the Human(e) Dimension,” International Law Studies, Vol. 106.Jessica Dorsey, May 2025, “Proportionality under Pressure: AI-Based DecisionSupport Systems, the Reasonable Commander Standard and Human(e) Judgment in Targeting,” The Hague Center for Strategic Studies.

Peter Kellner, a seasoned pollster and founder of YouGov, joins Anne McElvoy, executive editor at Politico, to explore the shifting political landscape in Britain. They discuss the sharp decline in support for Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the rise of insurgent parties like Reform UK. Kellner and McElvoy delve into the possibility of a pragmatic reengagement with the EU, debating its economic implications and what it means for Brexit. They also tackle cultural tensions, party identity crises, and the evolving nature of British voters.

Between high-level reports, bold statements, and internal negotiation, Europe struggles to outline a cohesive geostrategic vision for its place in the world. Sophia Besch, Dan Baer, and Rosa Balfour explore why the EU often fails to establish long-term solutions to the challenges it faces, and explain how Europe can overcome its political and institutional paralysis. [00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:28] Europe’s Challenges, [00:06:40] The EU’s Need to Reform, [00:17:55] The Future of Europe.Rosa Balfour, Stefan Lehne, and Elena Ventura, September 22, 2025, “The European Radical Right in the Age of Trump 2.0,” Carnegie Europe.Sophia Besch, June 26, 2025, “The Price of Protection,” Emissary, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Dan Baer, May 13, 2025, “Trump’s Brain Drain Will Be Europe’s Gain,” Foreign Policy.Rosa Balfour, April 30, 2025, “Europe Tried to Trump-Proof Itself. Now It’s Crafting a Plan B,” Emissary, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Rosa Balfour, March 25, 2025, “The Case for Europe,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.Sophia Besch and Erik Brown, December 16, 2024, “Securing Europe’s Subsea Data Cables,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Dan Baer and Sophia Besch, December 12, 2024, “NATO’s Northeast Countries Have a Template for Europe’s New Security Reality,” Emissary, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.”

The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas seems to be holding, but much work will need to be done before it can transform into a lasting peace.Rym Momtaz, Pierre Vimont, and Maha Yahya break down reactions from European and Arab leaders to Trump’s Gaza peace plan and discuss if Europe has a role to play.[00:00:00] Intro, [00:02:24] The Ceasefire in Gaza, [00:17:53] Does Europe Have a Role to Play? [00:24:13] Can There Be Genuine Peace in Gaza?Rym Momtaz, October 7, 2025, “The Trump Gaza Peace Plan Needs the EU, Too,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.Rym Momtaz, June 10, 2025, “Europeans and Arabs Must Take Historic Steps Toward a Palestinian State,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.Rym Momtaz, May 15, 2025, “Taking the Pulse: Should the EU Suspend its Association Agreement With Israel?,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.Pierre Vimont, July 22, 2025, “Reinventing European Diplomacy,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.Pierre Vimont, October 10, 2023, “Europe’s Moment of Powerlessness in the Middle East,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.Maha Yahya, February 17, 2025, “The Fatal Flaw of the New Middle East,” Foreign Affairs

The EU-U.S. trade deal concluded in July and the EU-China summit held the same month highlighted Europe’s weakening position on the global chessboard. Rym Momtaz, Rosa Balfour, and Erik Jones unpack why European leaders struggle to play power politics and explore what it will take for the EU to regain strategic agency. [00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:54] Europe's Summer of Delusion, [00:14:18] Prospects for EU Institutional Reform [00:24:18] Europe's Quest for a Strategic VisionRosa Balfour, April 30, 2025, “Europe Tried to Trump-Proof Itself. Now It’s Crafting a Plan B,” Emissary, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Rosa Balfour, March 25, 2025, “The Case for Europe,” Carnegie Europe.Rosa Balfour, Sinan Ülgen, November 28, 2024, “Europe’s Fledgling Economic Statecraft and the Trump Challenge,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.Rosa Balfour, Erik Jones, et al., November 19, 2024, “Geopolitics and Economic Statecraft in the European Union,” Carnegie Europe.Erik Jones, July 17, 2025, “Betting on Europe,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.Erik Jones, Gideon Rose, June 23, 2025, “Europe’s Two-Front War,” Foreign Affairs.Erik Jones, November 6, 2024, “How Draghi and Letta May Help in Dealing With Trump,” Encompass.Rym Momtaz et al., August 28, 2025, “Taking the Pulse: With Trump, Has Europe Capitulated?,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.Rym Momtaz, August 26, 2025, “Europe’s Summer of Trump Delusion,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.Rym Momtaz et al., July 24, 2025, “Taking the Pulse: Does the EU-China Summit Show a Weakened European Hand with Beijing?,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.Rym Momtaz, July 15, 2025, “Europe’s Claim to Geopolitical Power Isn’t Passing the Trump Test,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.