Hold Your Fire!

In this week’s episode of Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and guest host Richard Atwood take on the U.S. “forever wars” with Phil Gordon, a former adviser to President Barack Obama and author of the acclaimed book Losing the Long Game: The False Promise of Regime Change in the Middle East (St. Martin's Press, October 2020). Rob also addresses one of the most pressing foreign policy decisions the incoming Biden administration will face: should the U.S. simply go back to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal or should it aim for a more ambitious agreement with Tehran? Background reading:Losing the Long Game: The False Promise of Regime Change in the Middle East, Philip H. Gordon. St. Martin's Press.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this week’s episode of Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and guest host Richard Atwood unpack the state of talks among the U.S., and Afghan governments and the Taliban about a peace deal, along with Crisis Group’s Asia Program Director Laurel Miller, who served as acting U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan. They also address the expulsion of Crisis Group Senior Analyst Will Davison from Ethiopia and reflect on how the organization does its work in wartime.Background readings by Crisis Group:Afghanistan's Peace Process Will Be Long, Incremental, and in Need of a MediatorEthiopia Expels Crisis Group Senior Analyst Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this week’s episode of Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and guest host Richard Atwood talk about the ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh with Crisis Group Europe Program Director Olya Oliker. Then they speak with Crisis Group expert Richard Horsey about Myanmar’s identity crisis as it emerges from the second democratic elections in its history. Background readings by Crisis Group:Another Landslide Victory for Aung San Suu Kyi’s Party in Myanmar – But at What Cost? - November 2020 Q&AIdentity Crisis: Ethnicity and Conflict in Myanmar - August 2020 report Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this week’s episode of Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and guest host Brittany Brown compare their own experience with presidential transitions to the Trump administration’s refusal thus far to pave the way for Joe Biden’s arrival at the White House. They then explore what a Biden foreign policy could look like with Matt Duss, foreign policy adviser for Senator Bernie Sanders, evoking the motto: “First, do no harm”. Background readings by Crisis Group:Staving off Violence around Somalia’s Elections - 2020 BriefingEthiopia: Not too Late to Stop Tigray Conflict from Unravelling Country - 2020 Op-EdAlgérie: un air de déjà vu? - 2020 Q&A Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this week’s episode of Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and guest host Richard Atwood try to make sense of a very convoluted electoral map, with no clear winner, the day after the U.S. election. They then turn to the protests against police brutality that have shaken Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa, with Crisis Group Senior Adviser Nnamdi Obasi and Africa Program Director Comfort Ero. Lastly, they offer an update on the sadly predictable military escalation in Ethiopia. Background readings by Crisis Group:Nigeria’s #EndSARS Protest: De-escalate Tensions, Start Deep Police ReformThe Islamic State Franchises in Africa: Lessons from Lake ChadFacing the Challenge of the Islamic State in West Africa ProvinceViolence in Nigeria’s North West: Rolling Back the MayhemVideo: The Fate of Women Who Lived With Boko Haram Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and guest host Steve Pomper talk about a bizarre Oval Office meeting that enraged Ethiopia and a must-watch documentary about social media. Then they take a deep dive into the risks of election-related violence in the United States with Carnegie Senior Fellow Rachel Kleinfeld. She unpacks the combination of risks that place the 2020 presidential contest in a category apart from any other in memory.Background readings by Crisis Group:The U.S. Presidential Election: Managing the Risks of ViolenceToo Much to Lose: Steering the U.S. Away from Election-Related Violence Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, former Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos takes Rob and Naz behind the scenes of the negotiations with the FARC guerrillas that achieved a peace deal and won him the Nobel Peace Prize. Santos, also a Crisis Group Trustee, explains that making peace was much harder than leading the war effort. Beth Dickinson, Crisis Group’s analyst for Colombia, joins the conversation to give an update on how the peace agreement is working out. Background reading by Crisis Group:Leaders under Fire: Defending Colombia’s Front Line of Peace - 2020 report mentioned by Rob in the interviewThe Missing Peace: Colombia’s New Government and Last Guerrillas - 2018 reportColombia’s Armed Groups Battle for the Spoils of Peace - 2017 report Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Rob and Naz talk with Nigar Göksel, Crisis Group’s Turkey director, about how Turkey is flexing its muscles in its near abroad — Syria, Iraq, the eastern Mediterranean, and now Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as farther afield in Libya. Then they get an update on the Azerbaijani side of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh from Zaur Shiriyev, Crisis Group’s analyst in Baku. Background readings by Crisis Group:Crisis Group Statement (October 14): Reducing the Human Cost of the New Nagorno-Karabakh War Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Rob and Naz question the efficacy of international sanctions, as the European Union wields this overused tool against Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko. They are then joined by Olesya Vartanyan, Crisis Group’s senior South Caucasus analyst, for a very personal conversation about the toll the fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh has taken on her friends on both sides as well as an analysis of the role played by Turkey, Russia, and other external actors in the conflict. Background reading by Crisis Group on the war in Nagorno-Karabakh:De-escalating the New Nagorno-Karabakh War - statement on the most recent escalationDigging out of Deadlock in Nagorno-Karabakh - 2019 report mentioned by Olesya in the interviewNagorno-Karabakh’s Gathering War Clouds - 2017 report mentioned by Olesya in the interviewThe Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: A Visual Explainer Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Rob reminisces about his recent trip to Azerbaijan, where he saw warning signs of a “frozen conflict” ready to thaw. Naz explains why the U.S. might regret trying to designate the Huthis as a terrorist organization if it cares about helping Yemen make peace. They are joined by Aaron Miller, a veteran U.S. diplomat and Carnegie senior fellow, who examines the successes and shortcomings of President Trump’s unconventional diplomacy, and explains how the phrase “nobody ever washes a rental car” applies to conflict prevention.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.