Lowy Institute

US President Donald Trump dismisses decades-old alliances; the UK turns its back on a European project that brought peace and prosperity to a war-wracked continent; President Duterte overturns Filipino foreign policy to adopt a pro-Beijing line. Populist political forces are on the rise in some of the world’s great democracies, including in the US, India, the UK and other parts of Europe. What does the age of populism mean for American foreign policy and for the global order? On 15 June at the National Gallery of Victoria, the Lowy Institute heard from a campaigner on the front line against the darker impulses of populism - Jake Sullivan, Hillary Clinton’s closest foreign policy confidant.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jake Sullivan, former senior foreign policy adviser to Hillary Clinton, describes the post-World War II order as “like the Parthenon” - with columns that included the United Nations, NATO, and the various Bretton Woods institutions. Now, in the age of Trump, Brexit, and China’s rise, we are entering a phase with fewer clean lines. “It’s surprising, it’s sometimes formal and sometimes informal, sometimes linear and sometimes ad hoc, sometimes shiny and sometimes not.”On 19 June, Lowy Institute Director of Digital and Senior Fellow Sam Roggeveen hosted a conversation with Hillary Clinton’s closest foreign policy confidant Jake Sullivan.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton led one of the Obama Administration’s signature foreign policy initiatives, the ‘pivot’ to Asia. On 13 June, the Lowy Institute heard an address from Hillary Clinton’s closest foreign policy confidant, Jake Sullivan, about what motivated the pivot and what US Asia policy will look like under President Trump and beyond. A rising China, a belligerent North Korea and an unruly ASEAN are among the many challenges facing the US in the Asia-Pacific. Can this still be ‘America’s Pacific Century’, as Clinton promised when she first described the pivot in 2011?The annual Owen Harries Lecture honours the enormous contribution Mr Harries, a Nonresident Fellow of the Lowy Institute, has made to the international policy debate in Australia.Jake Sullivan was senior foreign policy adviser to Hillary Clinton's 2016 election campaign, having ‘quietly catapulted through the ranks of the Democratic foreign policy establishment’, as Vox magazine put it. Sullivan had earlier served as senior aide to President Obama, national security adviser to Vice President Joe Biden and Director of Policy Planning at the US Department of State, as well as deputy chief of staff to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. In 2013 Sullivan launched and co-led the secret negotiations with Iran about its nuclear program, paving the way for the November 2013 nuclear agreement.Previous Lowy Institute Distinguished International Fellows include Kurt Campbell, Stephen Hadley, Ambassador Shyam Saran and David Ignatius.The Lowy Institute would like to thank Telstra, the sponsor of the Distinguished International Fellowship Program.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

British Prime Minister Theresa May has called a snap election – the first early election in the UK since 1974. Opinion polls indicate her Conservative government is in for a thumping victory, but in an era of voter volatility, is this an unnecessary gamble? Or will May get the mandate she wants to negotiate the UK’s exit from the European Union on the best terms? On 9 June, the day after UK polling day, Georgina Downer and Thomas Bentley discussed what the results mean for the UK, EU and the world.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mr Hyland is the United Kingdom’s first Independent Anti-Slavery Commissioner. The Commissioner’s role is to lead the UK’s efforts to tackle modern slavery and human trafficking. Mr Hyland addressed the Lowy Institute on what is one of the most significant global human rights issues of the modern day, and the domestic and international actions countries can take to tackle it. Kevin Hyland was head of the London Metropolitan Police’s Human Trafficking Unit, and has over 30 years’ experience of investigating serious and organised crime. Mr Hyland was appointed as an Officer of the Order of the British Empire (OBE) for "services to Combating Human Trafficking" in the 2015 New Year Honours. While in Australia, Mr Hyland participated in a public hearing at the Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade parliamentary inquiry into establishing a Modern Slavery Act in Australia.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

North Korea is moving closer to its cherished strategic goal: the possession of a functioning nuclear missile capable of hitting the United States. The regime’s nuclear and ballistic missile tests have gathered pace, creating a momentum which US and regional policy makers are struggling to control. Sanctions have failed to halt the development of the North’s nuclear program. The recent, brazen assassination of Kim Jong Un’s half-brother by an outlawed chemical weapon in Malaysia’s main airport is also widely believed to have been carried out at Pyongyang’s direction, although no North Korean suspects have been brought to justice. While South Korea has lived with North Korea’s provocative behaviour for decades, how will other neighbours and the Trump administration deal with the looming threat? Is there a US-China “grand bargain” on the cards? Will the United States pursue unilateral counter-measures? Or does the solution lie elsewhere – with the possibility that a new South Korean president will pursue a pro-engagement strategy? Dr Euan Graham, Director of the International Security Program at the Lowy Institute and Korean foreign policy expert, Dr Jiyoung Song discussed the future of North Korea and how it will shape regional security.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lowy Institute Nonresident Fellow Stephen Grenville speaks with Sebastian Mallaby, a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, about how US President Donald Trump might interact with the US Federal Reserve, what lessons the Reserve Bank of Australia might draw from the US, and the impact of former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China is a rapidly ageing country. According to the World Bank, the working age population is predicted to fall by 10% by 2040. While the size of the workforce is falling, the pool of over 65s are rising, predicted to reach 350 million by the same year.What are the economic effects of a shrinking labour pool and rising number of aged dependents, and how will the two-child policy limit these effects? On 22 May the Lowy Institute hosted a panel of Dr Merriden Varrall, Director of the East Asia Program at the Lowy Institute, Dr Jane Golley, Associate Director of the Australian Centre on China in the World at the Australian National University and Dr John Edwards, Nonresident Fellow at the Lowy Institute, to explore how population dynamics will shape China’s economy and what it means for our economic future at large.The Lowy Institute acknowledges the support of AMP for this event.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With the race for Iran’s presidency heating up as hardline candidates join the contest, on 10 May the Lowy Institute hosted a panel moderated by Deputy Director Anthony Bubalo to preview Iran’s crucial presidential elections on 19 May. Joining Anthony were Dr Rodger Shanahan, Research Fellow at the Lowy Institute; Dr Naser Ghobadzadeh, from the Australian Catholic University; and Alice Drury, who lived and studied in Iran between 2014 and 2016.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Allan Gyngell's new book 'Fear of Abandonment: Australia in the World since 1942' is an authoritative account of the way Australians and their governments have helped create the world we now inhabit. On 26 April the Lowy Institute hosted Allan Gyngell, former Executive Director of the Lowy Institute and former Prime Minister Paul Keating for a discussion of the history of Australian foreign affairs and its impact on our place in the world now, moderated by Lowy Institute Executive Director Michael Fullilove.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.