Lowy Institute

Global wealth and power are shifting eastwards. Three of the world’s four largest economies are in Asia, and the fourth, the United States, is a Pacific power. By 2025, two thirds of the world’s population will live in Asia, and only around a tenth in the West. This transformation is reshaping the global distribution of power, with profound implications for war and peace in the twenty-first century.The Lowy Institute Asia Power Index is an analytical tool for tracking changes in the distribution of power in the region. It aims to sharpen the debate on geopolitics in Asia.The Index ranks 25 countries and territories in terms of their capacity to influence regional events, using 114 indicators across eight thematic measures of power: economic resources and relationships, military capability and defence networks, diplomatic and cultural influence, as well as resilience and future trends.The expert panel of Hervé Lemahieu, Director of the Asian Power and Diplomacy Program; Bonnie Bley, Research Fellow, and Daniel Flitton, Managing Editor, The Interpreter, Lowy Institute, discussed the method and findings of the largest comparative assessment of power in the region ever undertaken, followed by a Q&A.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Lowy Institute hosted a conversation with Executive Director Dr Michael Fullilove and Jessica Tuchman Mathews, former president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about the international role of the United States in the era of President Trump.Ms Mathews was president of the Carnegie Endowment for 18 years, and has also worked in the executive and legislative branches of government, in the non-profit arena, in the media, and science policymaking. She is a former director of the Office of Global Issues at the National Security Council, and has covered arms control, energy, environment, science, and technology issues as a member of the Washington Post’s editorial board.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Over the course of nearly 60 years’ engagement with Southeast Asia, Milton Osborne has become one of Australia’s leading authorities on the region. His Southeast Asia: An Introductory History, first published in 1979, is now in its 12th edition and has been translated into five Asian languages.Osborne’s latest work, Pol Pot Solved the Leprosy Problem: Remembering Colonial and Post-Colonial Worlds, 1956–1981, is a memoir of his career as a young diplomat in Phnom Penh, from 1959–61, and later as an academic and consultant to UNHCR, when he worked in Vietnam and along the Thai–Cambodian border.Following remarks on his experience of these early postcolonial years in Southeast Asia, Dr Osborne was joined in conversation by Aaron Connelly, Director of the Southeast Asia Project at the Lowy Institute.Dr Milton Osborne has held various academic appointments, including as a nonresident fellow of the Lowy Institute. From 1982 to 1993, he returned to government service as head of the Asia Branch of the Office of National Assessments. In 2013, the French Government honoured him with an appointment as Commandeur de l’Ordre National du Mérite for his writing on France in Asia and his role in liaison with French officials.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Papua New Guinea is about to step onto the global stage. In November, leaders representing half of the world’s GDP will descend on Port Moresby for the APEC Leaders’ Summit. This will be the largest event the country has ever hosted. In the context of a struggling economy and development challenges, what benefits will APEC have for the people of PNG? What are the major opportunities and difficulties in hosting such an event? How will the links forged by the summit help bolster and diversify the country’s economy? The Hon. Charles Abel, Deputy Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea, delivered an address at the Lowy Institute.Charles Abel has served as a Member of Parliament representing the Alotau Open Electorate since 2007. He has served as Minister for Culture and Tourism; Minister for Trade, Commerce and Industry; and Minister for National Planning. In July 2017 he was appointed Treasurer and Deputy Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The defeat of Malaysia’s ruling party on 9 May was unlike any election result the region has ever seen. No party in Southeast Asia has held power for so long, only to lose it at the polls. In its place, a broad coalition led by 92-year-old former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad has formed a new government. Can such a diverse coalition remain united as it addresses fundamental questions of the Malaysian social contract, including racial preferences? Mahathir once jailed Anwar Ibrahim, but has now freed him: how will their relationship develop as they seek to govern together? Will former Prime Minister Najib Razak be held to account for the 1MDB scandal, and how will the United Malays National Organisation react to its first experience in opposition? What will the change in government mean for Malaysia’s relationship with Australia, given Mahathir’s difficult history with earlier Australian prime ministers? The Lowy Institute’s Director of the Southeast Asia Project, Aaron Connelly, hosted a panel discussion with Amrita Malhi, Visiting Fellow in the Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs at the Australian National University; James Chin, Director of the Asia Institute Tasmania; and Kean Wong, contributing editor at New Mandala, as they discussed these questions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The latest Lowy Institute Paper published by Penguin Random House, Remaking the Middle East: How a Troubled Region May Save Itself by Anthony Bubalo, was launched in Sydney on 31 May.The Middle East is experiencing a period of concentrated turmoil unlike anything since the end of the Second World War. Uprisings, coups, and wars have seen governments overthrown, hundreds of thousands killed, and millions displaced.Anthony Bubalo argues that the current tumult is the result of the irrevocable decay of the nizam – the system under which most states in the region are ruled. But amid the ferment there are also “green shoots” of change which could remake the Middle East in ways that are more inclusive, more democratic, less corrupt, and less violent.Anthony Bubalo has worked on the Middle East for more than 25 years as a diplomat, intelligence analyst, and researcher. He has lived in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. He led the Lowy Institute’s Middle East research for 14 years, and regularly comments on the region’s politics in the Australian and international media.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The latest Lowy Institute Paper published by Penguin Random House, Remaking the Middle East: How a Troubled Region May Save Itself by Anthony Bubalo, was launched in Canberra on 29 May.The Middle East is experiencing a period of concentrated turmoil unlike anything since the end of the Second World War. Uprisings, coups, and wars have seen governments overthrown, hundreds of thousands killed, and millions displaced. Anthony Bubalo argues that the current tumult is the result of the irrevocable decay of the nizam – the system under which most states in the region are ruled. But amid the ferment there are also “green shoots” of change which could remake the Middle East in ways that are more inclusive, more democratic, less corrupt, and less violent. Anthony Bubalo has worked on the Middle East for more than 25 years as a diplomat, intelligence analyst, and researcher. He has lived in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. He led the Lowy Institute’s Middle East research for 14 years, and regularly comments on the region’s politics in the Australian and international media.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A highly anticipated meeting between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is still set to take place on 12 June in Singapore. Beyond theatrical spectacle and global media attention, what can the unprecedented US–North Korea summit realistically hope to achieve? The Lowy Institute’s Director of Research, Alex Oliver, moderated a panel discussion with Dr Euan Graham, Director, International Security at the Lowy Institute, and renowned expert on Asia-Pacific security Professor Bates Gill, of Macquarie University, as they previewed the major issues likely to define the Trump–Kim summit and weighed its prospects for success or failure.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Matthew Busch, Research Fellow, East Asia Program at Lowy Institute and special guests Rahimah ‘Ima’ Abdulrahim, Executive Director of The Habibie Centre, Jakarta, and Sandra Hamid, Indonesia Country Representative for The Asia Foundation, had a discussion about Indonesia in an era of vigorous electoral competition and growing sectarianism. In advance of more than 100 local elections in 2018 and presidential and legislative elections in 2019, now is an ideal time to take stock of the trajectory of politics in Indonesia. Should we expect a repeat of the religious and ethnic mobilisations deployed during the divisive 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial election? How have other civil society groups responded to an injection of religious identity into the political sphere? Do these trends complement or threaten to undermine the consolidation of Indonesia’s democratic institutions on the 20-year anniversary of Reformasi?The Lowy Institute is grateful to the Australia-Indonesia Institute of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade for their support of this event.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There is no more urgent security issue for Australia than North Korea, a nuclear-armed power with a regime described by Professor Robert Kelly as a ‘mafia state’. At his only public appearance in Canberra, Professor Kelly discussed North Korea’s enigmatic regime, its confrontation with the United States, and the likelihood of war. The conversation was moderated by Lowy Institute Senior Fellow Sam Roggeveen, and questions were taken from the audience. Robert Kelly is a professor of international relations in the Political Science and Diplomacy Department of Pusan National University in Busan, Korea. He is a regular contributor to The Interpreter and has written for The Diplomat, Foreign Affairs, The Washington Post, and The New York Times.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.