35 West

In early December, the European Union and Southern Common Market, better known as Mercosur, reached an agreement on a trade deal. This announcement represented the culmination of more than two decades of negotiations between the EU and Mercosur countries, which had progressed off and on since 1999.In this episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Lauri Tähtinen, a non-resident senior associate with CSIS. Together, they discuss the history of the agreement and why it has finally come to fruition, as well as some of the remaining disputes that could continue to threaten the deal. They also discuss the geopolitical implications, particularly with respect to China and the new U.S. administration, of what will be the largest free trade area in the world.

The re-election of President Donald Trump has sent reverberations throughout Mexico and Canada, the United States’ closest neighbors and largest trading partners. Of particular concern is Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on Canadian and Mexican exports into the United States, a threat which will undoubtedly color U.S. relations with its two neighbors and provides an insight into the likely directions of a Trump administration trade policy, which will emphasize striking an accord on sensitive issues like trade deficits, migration and border security, and defense. In this episode, Christopher Hernandez-Roy sits down with Dr. Meredith Lilly, Professor and Simon Reisman Chair in International Economic Policy at Carleton University and former Foreign Affairs and International Trade Advisor to Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Together, they discuss the state of U.S.-Canada relations and how they are likely to evolve under the Trump administration. They also delve into the ways North America as a whole may be impacted, and the future of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement which Trump helped negotiate in his first term.

This episode of 35 West originally aired on May 16, 2024. Following recent announcements that the incoming Trump Administration would consider tariffs on Mexico and Canada unless the two countries act to stop the flow of illegal drugs and irregular migration, many of the topics discussed have only grown in relevance.In 2023, U.S. trade with Mexico grew to nearly $800 billion, leading Mexico to surpass both Canada and China as the United States’ number one trading partner. While U.S.-Mexico trade has long been a pillar of North American economic competitiveness, Washington’s efforts to move trade away from China in favor of nearshoring and friendshoring in the Western Hemisphere, coupled with the advantages of a modernized trade agreement in the form of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) has underpinned this increase in bilateral trade and investment. At the same time, Chinese investment in Mexico has skyrocketed, with estimates finding that in 2022 Chinese foreign direct investment in Mexico was more than double that of 2018.In this episode, Christopher Hernandez-Roy sits down with Kenneth Smith Ramos, Chief Trade Negotiator for Mexico from 2017 to 2018 and one of the architects of USMCA. Together, they discuss the evolution of USMCA since its entry into force in 2020, with a focus on the recent surge of Chinese investment in Mexico, understanding the nature of this investment, as well as the potential challenges it may present. They also discuss the upcoming 2026 Joint Review of the agreement, and what can be done by all three countries to lay the groundwork for a more constructive session.

Bound together by tight trade links, cultural ties, as well as mutual defense partnerships like NATO and NORAD, the U.S.-Canada relationship has deep roots. However, the relationship is not without its challenges, especially as Canada appears to drag its feet on U.S. requests that it scale up defense spending to meet rising global security challenges. One area where the United States and Canada could nevertheless find fertile ground for greater cooperation however is on securing mineral supply chains.In this episode, Henry Ziemer sits down with Abigail Hunter, Executive Director of the Center for Critical Mineral Strategy at SAFE. Together, they discuss the state of U.S.-Canada cooperation on critical minerals projects, lingering obstacles, and the kinds of incentives needed to galvanize greater supply chain security. They also discuss how the two countries can work together to effectively push back against China's domination of mineral refining and processing infrastructure.

On Sunday, October 27, Uruguay held the first round of its presidential elections. While the smoothness of Uruguay’s election may come as a breath of fresh air in a region where orderly political transitions can at times be luxuries, the outcome of the presidential race will have important domestic and foreign policy implications for Uruguay.In this special episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Mauro Casa, a Uruguayan political analyst. Together, they discuss the key issues in the election, and what can be expected as the country heads to a runoff in November. They also delve into U.S.-Uruguay dynamics, and how Washington and Montevideo can maintain a productive relationship with Washington irrespective of who wins the presidency in either country.

Since the blatant electoral fraud that took place on July 28, the Maduro regime in Venezuela has sought to repress its way out of mass protests demanding political change. The regime’s heavy-handed crackdown comes at a time when the International Criminal Court has already been investigating Venezuela for alleged crimes against humanity. As the regime seeks to silence dissent and close the civic space, this pending case may represent one of the few remaining levers the international community can apply to instill restraint, but only if such an approach is carefully considered.In this episode, Christopher Hernandez-Roy sits down with Santiago Canton, Secretary General of the International Commission of Jurists and a member of the Panel of Independent International Experts on the Possible Commission of Crimes against Humanity in Venezuela of the Organization of American States. Together, they discuss the state of the ICC's investigation and how it is likely to develop in light of the abuses the regime has committed in the past three months. They also delve into the debate around whether the ICC case represents an impediment to political change, or if it remains a useful means of applying pressure on the regime.

International diplomatic and economic pressure on Maduro will be decisive in determining whether his ongoing attempts to steal the results of Venezuela's July 28 election will prevail, or if there is potential for change ahead of the official inauguration in January 2025. While the United States has condemned the results in Venezuela, regional heavyweights like Brazil have taken a different approach, refusing to officially recognize Maduro as the victor, but simultaneously avoiding harsh criticism of the regime’s actions.In this episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Thiago de Aragão, a senior associate with CSIS and CEO of Arko Advice, a political risk analysis firm based in Brazil. Together, they discuss the international community's response to developments in Venezuela, with a specific focus on Brazil's approach. They also unpack the international implications of Maduro's electoral fraud for the Western Hemisphere as a whole, and Venezuela's efforts to join the BRICS grouping.

In recent years, feminist foreign policy has emerged as a transformative approach to international relations, focusing on the promotion of gender equality, human rights, and inclusive governance on the global stage. One of the key drivers of feminist foreign policy is its ability to reshape the way states interact with one another. Unlike traditional policies that often prioritize military strength or economic power, feminist foreign policy places emphasis on cooperation, dialogue, and addressing the root causes of conflict—such as inequality and exclusion. In this episode, Juliana Rubio sits down with Ambassador Arlene B. Tickner, Colombia's Ambassador At-Large for Gender Issues and Feminist Global Policy. Together, they discuss the origins and implementation of Colombia's feminist foreign policy agenda. They also analyze how Colombia's approach to human security represents an important counter-narrative to mano dura hardline security policies in the region.

Bound together by geography, commerce, and cultural ties, the Caribbean region is often referred to as the United States “third border.” For this reason, the security challenges that impact the Caribbean should also be front-of-mind for the United States, especially as Caribbean countries face rising levels of violence and instability, fueled by the drug trade. Growing criminal violence, endemic corruption, and the growth of illicit industries present not just a public safety challenge, they increasingly threaten the very sovereignty and stability of Caribbean governments.In this episode, Christopher Hernandez-Roy sits down with Ivelaw Lloyd Griffith, Senior Associate with the CSIS Americas Program. Together, they discuss his book Challenged Sovereignty: The Impact of Drugs, Crime, Terrorism, and Cyber Threats in the Caribbean. They discuss longstanding security issues facing Caribbean countries from drug and arms trafficking, as well as emergent challenges like cybercrime and terrorism.

China’s economic strategy has evolved significantly over the past decade. Where once the PRC served as “the world’s factory,” today Chinese companies are increasingly looking to internationalize their operations. Latin America has been emblematic of these changes, in particular Chinese investment flows into regional electric vehicle manufacturing have raised eyebrows among economic security analysts.In this episode, Ryan C. Berg sits down with Christine Murray, Mexico and Central America correspondent for the Financial Times. Together they assess current trends in China-Mexico economic relations and how these might evolve under the new administration of President Claudia Sheinbaum. They also examine key countries in Central America like Panama and Guatemala, which will play a critical role in China's economic future in the region.