Wizard of Ads Monday Morning Memo

Today we call it Data but we used to call it Statistics.Statistics are boring. That’s why a clever boy in Silicon Valley gave them a new and better name.A scientist is willing to change a belief when presented with data, facts and logic.But very few customers are scientists. This is why you must accommodate their perspectives, reinforce their biases, anticipate their preferences and leverage their stereotypes.In his book, How to Win Friends and Influence People, Dale Carnegie said, “A man convinced against his will is of the same opinion still.”Carnegie was quoting Benjamin Franklin who said it 100 years earlier.Franklin discovered the idea in a satirical poem, Hudibras, written by Samuel Butler 100 years before that, in 1664.That statement, “A man convinced against his will is of the same opinion still,” resonated with Carnegie, Franklin and Butler, just as it does with every person who has vainly attempted to use facts and logic to overcome a belief.In the words of Andrew Lang, we generally use statistics “as a drunken man uses a lamppost, for support rather than for illumination.”This is because data, facts and logic are not the keys to the mind.The keys to the mind are metaphors, connecting the unfamiliar to the familiar, the unknown to the known. Metaphors employ Symbolic thought, the only type of thought that bridges the unconscious to the conscious, the right brain to the left, the category to the specific, the pattern to the purpose.Verbal thought is the sound of words in your mind.Analytical thought embraces data, facts and logic.Abstract thought embraces patterns of events and patterns of answers. It’s a nonverbal, subjective reality built on preferences, prejudices and stereotypes.Symbolic thought is a bridge that begins in the land of Abstract thought and ends in the land of Analytical thought. Parables, music and metaphors are powerful expressions of Symbolic thought. Each is more persuasive than Data.You’ve heard it said that, “Every person is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts.” Yet we routinely craft our own facts from the fabric of personal experiences, preferences and prejudices.A stereotype is nothing more than a pattern we’ve observed. This pattern isn’t always predictive, but it is a pattern nonetheless and we trust it. We do this in the misbegotten belief that we have correctly interpreted our past experiences and that our preferences and prejudices are, in fact, correct and reliable interpretations of objective reality.We’re a funny, funny species, aren’t we?We’re coaching a basketball game.Cedric makes 4 baskets in less than 2 minutes so we conclude that Cedric has “a hot hand,” he’s “in the zone and has a feel for the basket,” so we instruct the other players to feed Cedric the ball.Does it surprise you to learn that all the data clearly indicates that a player who makes 4 consecutive baskets in less than 2 minutes of game time is no more likely to make his next shot than usual? But every coach, every player and every fan of the sport will continue to feed Cedric the ball.We don’t trust data nearly so much as we trust our heart.Digital marketing is here to stay and it provides us with data beyond imagination. But data doesn’t change the mind. At best, it reinforces a decision that was already made in the heart. Win the heart and the mind will follow. Don’t fill your messages with data. Instead, use metaphors that connect your idea to your customer’s world. Because a man convinced against his will is of the same opinion still.Some things are slow to change. Some things never do.Roy H. Williams

People will direct their attention to whatever gives them a sense of identity, purpose and adventure.You must always remember this when crafting advertising.The fans of a sports team are the members of a club. Their team gives them identity, purpose and adventure. Political parties, too, give their members identity, purpose and adventure. Religious organizations, book clubs and Twitter feeds give their followers identity, purpose and adventure.A grandmother adores her grandchildren because they give her identity… purpose… and adventure.Do you know what a rock collector gets from his rock collection? Identity, purpose and adventure.Each of us – every one of us – is on a treasure hunt. The differences between us are found primarily in the things we value. When a person doesn’t value what we value, we think a little less of them. They are obviously shallow, stupid, deceptive or evil.Abraham Maslow believed a third of our society lives below the search for identity or above it. Those who live below the search are focused primarily on securing food, shelter and safety. This is their economic reality. Those who live above the search have a clear sense of identity and they know their purposes precisely. This is their emotional reality. Their adventures depend on nothing outside themselves.Those who live below or above the search for identity are effectively immune to advertising. The first group can’t afford what you’re selling and the second group doesn’t care. These people are rarely prospective customers.Fortunately for businesses everywhere, two thirds of us buy what we buy to remind ourselves – and tell the world around us – who we are. These two thirds of society are the backbone of the economy. We have needs that have not been met, hungers that have not been satisfied, dreams that have not been fulfilled.Businesses exist to meet those needs, satisfy those hungers and fulfill those dreams.We make and spend money primarily to discover who we are.This would be sadif it wasn’t so much fun.Vie à l’économie.Roy H. Williams

It’s Friday morning, September 7, 1951. John Steinbeck emerges from deep in his writing of East of Eden to scribble a note to his friend, Pat Covici:“This week has been a hard one. I have put the forces of evil against a potential good. Yesterday I wrote the outward thing of what happened. Today I have to show what came of it. This is quite different from the modern hard-boiled school. I think I must set it down. And I will. The spots of gold on this page are the splatterings from beautiful thoughts.”Those five words, “the splatterings from beautiful thoughts,” let me know that I’m not alone.Another five words, “haggard, inconstant splashes of beauty,” appear near the end of an Italian movie about a guy who, on his 65th birthday, begins to reevaluate his shallow life. The movie is visually rich but a bit of a downer.Life can be a bit of a downer, too, even when it’s not a shallow one.Visually rich sights are all around us but we’re too pressed for time to notice. We’re in a mood, in a hurry, in trouble, in a crisis or incapacitated. We’re anxious or angry, distracted or distraught, bedazzled, bedeviled or bedraggled.But still those splashes of beauty creep in – barely noticeable at first – but there they are, haggard and inconstant, limping and laughing splashes of miracles that would show up more often if only we would notice.“There is a lovely road that runs from Ixopo into the hills. These hills are grass-covered and rolling, and they are lovely beyond any singing of it….”– Alan Paton, opening line of Cry, The Beloved CountryA profound beauty can often be found in the ordinary. Will you look for it with me today? The cost is nothing and the value is high.If beauty is in the eye of the beholder, then let us become beholders.Yes, people will laugh at us if we see beauty where they do not. Let us think of this laughter as our gift to them. We should laugh a little, too.And now I will tell you a dark secret that is also a paradox: the richest of all beauties – the one that takes your breath away – is deeply terrifying. It grants me new life when it appears, but I do not seek it. For this richest beauty happens only when my world collapses and my only hope is in God.Perhaps you, too, have been there.There is a quickening, a wiggle of life when we’re in extremis, a rearrangement of priorities, deep and clear. The problem that’s about to swallow you whole becomes a pool of water that serves as a magnifying glass and for a moment you see everything clearly.As I said, I do not seek this richest of beauties, for it is terrifying.Coward that I am, I shall continue to live without an all-consuming crisis for as long as I’m able and do my best to be satisfied with the haggard, inconstant splashes of beauty that are the splatterings from beautiful thoughts.Dorothy Parker was right, “They sicken of the calm who know the storm.”Even so, let us look for beauty – in the calm – of the ordinary.Roy H. Williams

I look in the mirror and see the person I believe myself to be. You look at me and see the person you believe me to be. We don’t see the same person.Businesses, too, see themselves differently than their customers do.A flatterer disguised as a branding consultant will help you create an idealized self-portrait and tell you it’s your brand. I say “idealized” because we businesspeople judge ourselves by our intentions. Customers judge us by our actions.Peace of mind comes from liking the person you see in the mirror.But brand attraction happens when the customer looks at your company and sees a reflection of themselves.We are attracted to brands that stand for something we believe in. Likewise, we are attracted to television shows, movies, books, websites, podcasts, newscasts and songs that confirm what we believe. This is known in psychology as “confirmation bias.”Let me say this plainly: If you challenge a person’s core beliefs, they will avoid you. Agree with those beliefs and they will like you. This is the essence of brand building.But not everyone believes the same things. This is why a brand-builder must choose who to lose. There is no message, no belief system, that appeals to everyone.The Democratic party and the Republican party dominate American politics even though just fifty-eight percent of Americans align themselves with either of these two brands.In a survey of self-identified “Liberal Democrats” and self-identified “Conservative Republicans,” Experian Simmons identified the Top 15 favorite television shows of each group.Not a single show was on both lists.Not one.Liberals prefer shows of moral ambiguity like Mad Men, Dexter, 90210 and Breaking Bad, where the good people aren’t entirely good and the bad people aren’t entirely bad. “I don’t mean to make light of it, but Democrats seem to like shows about damaged people,” said John Fetto, senior marketing manager at Experian Simmons. “Those are the kind of shows Republicans just stay away from.”Conservatives prefer shows where hard work and talent are clearly rewarded. Reality shows and contests like American Idol, Dancing with the Stars, Survivor and The Bachelor scored high with this group.Interesting information, right? But not really surprising when you think about it. Narcissus saw his reflection in a pool of water and fell in love with the person he saw.Confirmation bias strikes again.How can you use this information to make money?1. Quit trying to change your customer’s mind.2. Tell them they’re right.3. Confirm their suspicions.4. Demonize their enemies.5. Let them see themselves when they look at you. Do these things and you’ll make more money. Usually, a lot more money.But a strange thing happens when you“go along to get along,” when youagree with people you don’t respect, when youfail to speak out against injustice, when youallow etiquette and expediency to quietly replacecompassion and courage:You look in the mirror and no longer like who you see.How do we remain open to seeing things from a new perspective without losing clarity of self in the process?If I ever figure it out, I’ll let you know.Roy H. Williams

A cafe owner, famous for his soup, was told by his accountant that he could boost his profit significantly if he would add just 5 percent more water to the recipe. The accountant was right. The water was added and no one noticed. Months later, the cafe added 5 percent more water and still no one noticed. Later, more water was added. And then a little more, but never more than 5 percent because they had now “proven” that customers cannot detect just 5 percent more added water.As you suspected, the cafe owner didn’t lose his customers incrementally, but all at once. “The soup here just isn’t as good as it used to be.”I was told that story by a multimillionaire Wall Street speculator. He says American businesspeople have a peculiar blind spot to the all-at-once backlash that comes from watering the soup. He said American businesses expect to see incremental declines when they are incrementally abusive, but that’s never how it works. When the wife packs up to leave, she takes the kids and leaves all at once.The central belief of a cost-cutter is that profits rise when costs are lowered. And on paper, this argument is insurmountable because the cost-cutter’s forecast doesn’t project a decline in business.In the short term, the cost-cutter looks like a genius.Later, when customers quit buying soup and the business begins to circle the drain, the silly little cost-cutter becomes an even taller hero:“See how smart I am? If I hadn’t reduced expenses, we’d really be in trouble right now. But with our new, lower overhead, we’re still profitable. I’ve saved the company.”Don’t laugh. I’m watching it happen to a friend’s business right now and it makes me want to cry.Shortly after we bought the plateau on which Wizard Academy proudly sits, the Chicago Tribune ran a fascinating story. These are the opening lines:Fred Turner did not need to look at financial statements to know McDonald’s was in trouble. He could taste it.The man who worked alongside founder Ray Kroc to turn McDonald’s Corp. into a global colossus, Turner noticed when penny pinchers at corporate headquarters changed recipes to cut costs. So when McDonald’s cheapened the famed “special sauce” on its flagship Big Mac sandwich, Turner knew.But it wasn’t until a new CEO brought him back from retirement 18 months ago to help lead a turnaround at McDonald’s that the now 71-year-old Turner learned just how deep the trouble ran…McDonald’s was a magical corporation when it was in the hands of entrepreneurs. But then the conniving little accountants took over.I did not say that all accountants are idiots. My own accountant, Adrian Van Zelfden famously says, “It’s usually easier to increase revenues than to cut costs. Don’t try to shrink your way to profits.”Jean Backus, another CPA, was recently elected to serve as Chairman of the Board at Wizard Academy. Jean doesn’t believe in shrinking things either. Jean believes in growing them.Your accountant may be one of the good ones, too. What are they telling you to do? Are they suggesting that you grow your company? Or are they suggesting that you shrivel into something else?A cost-cutter buys grapes and makes raisins.An entrepreneur buys grapes and makes wine.You’ll never see a person arrive to a celebrationcarrying a box of raisins.Roy H. Williams

Contrary to what my headline might suggest, this is actually an upbeat message.Guilt is about what you have done.Shame is about who you are.Failure in business has no connection to either of these.Failures are footlights along the dark pathway to success.One of the defining characteristics of Wizard Academy alumni is that we are people of action. Failure does not frighten us.The author of Peter Pan, J. M Barrie, would have been one of us if Wizard Academy had existed back then. He said, “We are all failures – at least the best of us are.”Thomas John Watson, the early President of IBM who turned that company into a household word, said, “If you want to increase your success rate, double your failure rate.”Roger Van Oech, a consultant to Apple, Disney, Sony and IBM echoes, “Remember the two benefits of failure. First, if you do fail, you learn what doesn’t work; and second, the failure gives you the opportunity to try a new approach.”Warren G. Bennis had a failure epiphany that changed his life. He says, “The leaders I met, whatever walk of life they were from, whatever institutions they were presiding over, always referred back to some failure: something that happened to them that was personally difficult, even traumatic, something that made them feel that desperate sense of hitting bottom — as something they thought was almost a necessity. It’s as if, at that moment, the iron entered their soul; that moment created the resilience that leaders need.”Failure, it seems, is valuable and important and necessary to your success.Here’s how to do it right:Fail cheaply. Always ask, “What is the minimum viable experiment?”Fail forward. Be sure to learn something you didn’t know before you failed.Fail quickly. The primary goal is to prove or disprove your concept.This education by experience can be expensive. But ignorance is even more expensive.I’m in the middle of what appears – right now – to be a failure of epic proportions.But I’m not frightened by it, ashamed of it, or even confused.“Amazed” is the word I would use.Back on November 4th I announced a $10,000 Quixote’s Windmill Prize. Only 4 people, so far, have entered that contest.Think of it this way: would you accept a free lottery ticket to win a $10,000 cash prize if your chances of winning were 1 in 4? That’s right. There is nothing to buy, no entry fee, and anyone can enter. The prize is cash.The deeply insightful Jean Vanier says, “I am struck by how sharing our weakness and difficulties is more nourishing to others than sharing our qualities and successes.” The name of Vanier’s book is Community and Growth.Community: you’re part of the community of Wizard Academy and the Monday Morning Memo.Growth: It’s the goal of our coming together.I’m going to say something hard now. I hope you will forgive me: If you want to stand before others as a sparkling example of what is possible if a person works hard enough, is disciplined and determined enough, and makes all the right decisions, well, you seem to have a need to be worshipped.If you actually want to benefit the people around you… if you want to help them avoid the mistakes you made and the difficulties you endured as a result… you must share those mistakes and describe those difficulties. This is how we grow. This is how we have community.I want you to enter Quixote’s Windmill contest because it’s important for you to laugh about your failures. If you try to keep them secret, you give them power over you.Don’t wear the handcuffs of the past.Roy H. Williams

“Once, there were 3 kittens named Murry, Furry and Wurry…”I’ll admit to fabricating Murry and Furry, but you and I both know that Wurry is often pampered and protected like a cherished pet. We talk about our Wurry and cuddle it. We share our Wurry with others, hoping they will choose to love our Wurry as we do.If you try to help a person eliminate their Wurry, they will rise ferociously to its defense.People who have all chosen to love the same Wurry form organizations and political parties, bound together by a shared anxiety.Would you like to have anxiety? It can be yours if you want it. All you have to do is craft a pessimistic interpretation of ambiguous events and voilà, anxiety is yours.Jesus makes a strong argument against worry in the 6th chapter of Matthew, then finishes his thoughts with these words: “Don’t worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own.”That’s a well-known Bible verse, but if you actually choose not to worry, most people will consider you to be foolish and naive.We are programmed from birth to give our attention to the snarling tiger on our left instead of the beautiful butterfly on our right. When face-to-face with imminent danger, fear gives us focus and clarity. It is a biological imperative that keeps us alive. This is why we give bad news the highest priority. But that doesn’t mean fear is always good.When was the last time you encountered a tiger?In the absence of snarling tigers, modern man has chosen to focus his need to fear beyond this moment, beyond his circumstances, beyond objective reality.Our fear about the future is called Worry.I do not love it.What would it feel like if we quit borrowing trouble from tomorrow?It sounds reckless, doesn’t it, not to worry about possibilities that might never happen? Would that mean the end of planning? Perhaps it would. But it would also trigger an explosion of improvisation.I seem to recall a writer who said that most plans are just inaccurate predictions anyway. I think he makes a good point.Am I seriously suggesting that we eliminate worry from our lives? No, it was Jesus who suggested that. I’m merely contemplating the implications of such a decision and walking you down a path of possibilities.Interesting scenery, don’t you think?Roy H. Williams

We could call this memo, “The Poodle and The Vamp, Part Two,” but we won’t. No one likes the sequel quite so much as they liked the original.Talent isn’t rare. Our world overflows with worthy talent that continues day-to-day unrecognized. I’ll wager that you possess such talent.There is something you’re capable of doing, I’ll bet, that could make you famous around the world. Your fame might even happen in a whoosh, the way it did for Billy, Tom, and Ted.Billy Graham started preaching in 1947. In 1949, Billy set up a circus tent in Los Angeles, certainly not the first to do so. So there he was, night after night, just another preacher with a tent, when two words forever altered the trajectory of his life: “Puff Graham.”William Randolph Hearst, the newspaper mogul who inspired the movie, Citizen Kane, sent that unexplained, 2-word telegram to every editor at every newspaper he owned in America. The next day, papers from coast to coast were glowing with stories about this Christian minister. Hearst never told the papers to quit puffing Graham.And they never did.In his book, Just as I Am, Billy Graham says he never learned why Hearst took an interest in him. “Hearst and I did not meet, talk by phone, or correspond as long as he lived.”Billy Graham was, and is, remarkably talented. But so are 10,000 other ministers.Every poodle needs a vamp.“Tom Clancy was an insurance salesman in Maryland when, in the early nineteen-eighties, he wrote a book, ‘The Hunt for Red October,’ that Ronald Reagan, with a handsome public mention, turned into a best-seller. Clancy’s career took off like, well, like one of his rockets. Too nearsighted to serve in the armed forces, Clancy, who kept a tank on his front lawn, was a military fantasist whose end-is-nigh concoctions spawned a franchise…”– David Denby, The New Yorker, Jan. 20, 2014, p. 78Reagan played vamp for Tom Clancy just as Hearst did for Billy Graham.But what about Teddy Roosevelt? Wasn’t he one of the most popular and beloved presidents in the history of the United States?Nope. Not really. His policies and decisions were as hotly debated as those of Barack Obama today. We think of Roosevelt as “one of the great ones” primarily because his monumental face watches over America from Mount Rushmore along with Washington, Jefferson and Lincoln, the undisputed big boys of American history.Roosevelt’s vamp was Gutzon Borglum.Borglum was not commissioned by the government to create Mount Rushmore. It was a private work begun by a private individual.And that individual was a buddy of Ted Roosevelt back when Teddy was still alive. Roosevelt had been gone for only 8 years when Borglum began his carving.If Gutzon Borglum was only just now beginning to carve that granite in South Dakota, he might chose Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln and Carter because Gutzon answered to no one but himself.That is the power of a vamp.Do you believe in someone? Vamp for them.The Wizard of Ads partners are known throughout the Engish-speaking world because we have agreed upon a covenant: Never boast of your own accomplishments but only those of your partners.“You vamp for me. I’ll vamp for you.”It’s called “third party credibility,” or at least it used to be. Today they call it “feedback,” “comments” and “customer reviews.”Billy, Tom and Ted went viral before it had a name. But one thing remains the same: A poodle needs a vamp.Every business is a poodle.Every ad writer is a vamp.How good is yours?Roy H. Williams

Type “business plan” into Google and you’ll see an impressive array of articles from BusinessWeek, The Wall Street Journal, Inc., Forbes, Entrepreneur and SBA.gov.Everyone has a business plan.Almost no one has an advertising plan.And we are coming to a critical fork in the road.I want you to choose your fork consciously rather than unconsciously. And choose you most definitely will.I’m talking about your choice between brand-building and direct response advertising.When you sell a product or service with a long purchase cycle – something purchased only once every several years – your business will be best served by brand building. Do everything in your power to become the company that people will think of first and feel the best about when they finally need what you sell. Good brand-building also stimulates word-of-mouth, the original “viral.” But brand building requires patience, confidence and courage.If you sell a product or service with a short purchase cycle – something that most people will purchase every few days, weeks or months – your business will be best served by direct-response ads. Create an extremely attractive, limited-time offer, then add an additional incentive for those who act now. Then add a third incentive. This is called “benefit stacking” and it makes a massive difference. Direct-response ads are exciting but to be really successful you need a big-gap offer.The goal is to create a big gap between the perceived value and the asking price. The more impressive that gap, the more attractive your direct-response offer. Big-gap offers are most easily made when the public has no ability to shop and compare.Companies that make money with big-gap offers are the ones that can sell products with a perceived value that is at least 10 times their actual cost. I’m betting you don’t have that kind of profit margin. Am I right?Write a direct-response ad for a product with a widely known price and the public won’t be impressed unless you’re selling that product below your cost. This is known as a “loss leader.” The idea behind a loss leader is that it can drive customers into your store who might make additional purchases while they’re there. Grocery stores have used this technique since the dawn of time.Direct response is not a style of ad writing. It is a style of offer packaging.Businesses with short purchase cycles can jump from offer to offer, item to item, incentive to incentive indefinitely. But may God have mercy on the ad writer who is expected to generate immediate response for a product or service with a long purchase cycle.There are times when it’s possible to run a direct-response offer within a brand-building ad campaign for a product or service that has a long purchase cycle. An example of this would be for a jewelry store to make an enticing offer to finance engagement rings right before Valentines Day. Add the additional incentives of a romantic dinner and a limousine filled with 12 dozen roses and you might see a bump in engagement ring sales.Google’s ability to identify customers who are immediately in the market for products and services with long purchase cycles has all but eliminated the Yellow Pages and it is rapidly eroding the public’s need for in-store “experts” as well. Google’s unique ability to do this has caused many business owners to believe they have a right to expect immediate results from traditional mass media.Business owner, the fork in the road is before you: brand building or direct response.If you sell a product or service that at least 50 percent of the public will purchase within the next 12 months, you might do well to consider running direct response ads in mass media. But please be careful to make a highly impressive offer or you’ll be horribly disappointed.If you sell a product or service with a long purchase cycle – roofing, HVAC, jewelry, boats, major appliances, etc. – you must use extreme caution when applying direct response techniques or you’ll just be teaching your customers to wait for your next “sale.”Or you could just bet the farm on your ability to stay at the top of Google search results.I’ll be intrigued to see what you choose.Roy H. Williams

“Normalization” begins with an idealized norm of conduct – for example, the way a soldier should ideally stand, march, and present arms, with each of these actions defined in minute detail. Individuals are then rewarded for conforming to this ideal or punished for deviating from it.Normalization allows a leader to exert maximum social control with the minimum expenditure of force. This idea of “disciplinary power” emerged over the course of the 19th century, came to be used extensively in military barracks, schools, factories and offices in the 20th century, and has since became a crucial aspect of modern societies. I blame the British.Curious to know more? Read Discipline and Punish by Michel Foucault“We all know bad things are happening to our political and social universe; we know that business is colonizing ever larger chunks of American culture; and we know that advertising tells lies. We are all sick to death of the consumer culture. We all want to resist conformity. We all want to be our own dog.”– Thomas Frank, Conglomerates and the Media, 1997“The reward for conformity is that everyone likes you but yourself.”– Rita Mae Brown, Venus Envy, 1994“Education either functions (1.) as an instrument which is used to facilitate integration of the younger generation into the logic of the present system and bring about conformity or (2.) it becomes the practice of freedom, the means by which men and women deal critically and creatively with reality and discover how to participate in the transformation of their world.”– Paulo Freire, Pedagogy of the Oppressed, 1968Paolo Freire was a miraculous educator who used unapproved methods to teach thousands of illiterate Brazilian farmworkers to read and write in just 45 days. He was later put in jail.I believe Paolo would have loved Wizard Academy, a school for the imaginative, the courageous and the ambitious. We resist rigid rules and rely instead on universal principles.Laid side-by-side, a stick and a rope have a similar profile. Likewise, rules and principles look alike even though they have little in common.Rules are like sticks. You can prod people with them. You can threaten people with them. You can beat people with them. But you cannot lead people with them. When a rule doesn’t fit the circumstance, your only choice is to break it.Principles are like rope, able to be wrapped around even the most weirdly shaped problems. They are less brittle than rules, and stronger. Principles whisper priceless advice and people are happily led by them.A rule requires obedience.A principle requires contemplation.Simple people living in a push-button society demand simple rules.Wise men and women understand and apply universal laws.There. I have said it.Roy H. Williams