The Real Estate Espresso Podcast

On today’s show, we’re talking about why the United States needs inflation. In order to understand us we need to go back to the. Following World War II. From 1945 until 1951 US government Debt went went from 110% of GDP to 50% of GDP. How did they do it? In 1945 US government debt as at an all time high as a result of the second world war. All wars are inflationary and WW2 was no exception.  There was a massive liquidation of government debt. Real interest rates went to -13%. Inflation was running hot after WW2 peaking at 19% in 1947, but Fed rates were kept low around 2% from the period of 1945 until 1951. After Pearl Harbor the Fed capped the rate at 2.5 from 1943 until 1951. This was a wartime decision. The Fed was not allowed to operate independently during those years.  It is was trick issue. You can fool the world once. Those who bought those 30 year bonds  were virtually wiped out by the time 1980 rolled around. The government made every single interest payment, but the debt got inflated away.  Fast forward to 2023. The treasury needs to roll 5T in debt next year, plus whatever they issue in new debt. It’s unclear who will buy all of that paper. The US cannot afford its own debt.   The only way this is solved is with negative real interest rates  ------------- Host: Victor Menasce

Daniel Angel is based in Atlanta where he invests in multi-family apartments. On today's show we are talking about the state of the market and navigating the headwinds that we are all experiencing. To connect with David and to learn more, visit apexinvesting.us. ----------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: podcast@victorjm.com

Peter Neill and Ron Lockhart are based in Philadelphia where they redevelop blighted properties into affordable housing in Philly, Baltimore and New Jersey. On today's show we talking about how their investment model is extremely resilient even in today's high interest rate environment. To connect and to learn more, visit gsprei.com --------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: podcast@victorjm.com

On today’s show we are exploring the limits that could trigger the next major breakage in the economy. I believe that the conditions are consistent with those that led up to the black Monday stock market crash in 1987. I remember that day very well. I was in my fifth year running my family’s investment portfolio and I was in my early 20’s. What’s different then is that the US had a debt about 30% of GDP and an annual deficit running about 2% of GDP. Today, the US has a debt of 130% of GDP and a deficit of about 8% of GDP.  There are stark differences, and some similarities. I believe that the first dominos fell earlier this year in March. But it didn’t create a huge domino effect cascading throughout the system. Part of the reason for that is that the US had stopped issuing new treasuries. If you remember, the US had exhausted its debt ceiling and was spending down the balance of the Treasury General Account.  ------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: podcast@victorjm.com

More farmland is now hitting the market as a large percentage of America’s farmland is owned by people aged 75 or older. Forbes Magazine recently published an article about this phenomenon. We  have experienced this first hand. Last year, our team acquired the last remaining piece of the Norris Ranch. At one time, the Norris Ranch was more than 20,000 acres called T Cross Ranch. On today's show we are digging deeper into this growing opportunity. ------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: podcast@victorjm.com

On today’s show we are going to look at some soft data. A few days ago we explored the difference between hard data and soft data when it comes to economic indicators. Hard data includes things like the unemployment rate, the CPI, GDP, GDI and so on.  Soft data consists of market sentiment information. On today’s show we are looking at the market data produced by research firm Pulsenomics. The company was in the headlines yesterday with an announcement of a Partnership between Pulsenomics and Fannie Mae to Produce Home Price Expectations Survey The company has been conducting home surveys for years. They publish the widely read U.S. Housing Confidence Survey every quarter.  ----------- Host: Victor Menasce email: podcast@victorjm.com

On today’s show we are talking about the elements of negotiating a construction contract, specifically using the industry standard AIA contract forms.  I’ve heard a number of people insist on using the industry standard AIA contracts. These industry standard contracts are supposed to be a fair contract that is not one-sided favouring neither the owner nor the general contractor.  I compare the AIA contract to the standard real estate board purchase and sale agreement template. Nobody would ever use the standard real estate board contracts without alteration. They are, after all, just a blank template.  The benefit and the problem with these templates is that they are very easy to customize. Unless you are familiar with the contract in detail, it’s going to take a lot of work to close down all of the potential landmines that exist in these standard contracts. It starts with having a clear understanding of what your goals are as a property owner. --------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: podcast@victorjm.com

On today show, we are going to look at two different words that are used to describe macro economic factors, and in each case we’re going to look at an important distinction in the nature of these anomic indicators. We’re going to start by looking at economic data generally. Economic data breaks down into two major categories. There is what is called soft data and hard data.  hard data consist of the consumer price index, gross domestic product, gross, domestic income, the producer, price index, the unemployment rate, and labor, force, participation, there’s a long list of data, that is compiled and reported by the Bureau of Labour Statistics in United States, Statistics Canada in Canada, and Eurostat in Europe.  These numbers tend to be lagging indicator’s.  In addition to the hard data, there is a rich array of soft data about the economy. These are things like indices of consumer confidence the purchasing manager index. These numerous measures communicate the sentiment of consumers and business owners about how they feel in the current market conditions in addition to their outlook for the coming months. These are, however, just opinions. They are surveys. Opinions are influenced by factual information to be sure. but opinions are also influenced by other factors. The second reason why consumer confidence might provide useful early information is if consumers’ responses to the survey questions provide good forecasts of future economic activity. This would occur if consumer confidence has a causal influence on economic activity, but this influence takes several months before it is fully realized. ----------- Host: Victor Menasce

On the first day of each month we review the book of the month. Our book this month is "Buy Back Your Time" by Dan Martell.  In the book, he offers a refreshing perspective on time management and productivity, focusing not just on doing more but on reclaiming our most valuable asset – time itself. ----------- Host: Victor Menasce email: podcast@victorjm.com

Chris Balzaretti is based in NY and invests both in NY and Texas. On today's show we are talking about the lessons from Texas investments made during the past few years. To connect with Chris and to learn more, you can email Chris@takeflytecapital.com ------------------ Host: Victor Menasce email: podcast@victorjm.com