The Real Estate Espresso Podcast

There is a seismic shift—not in real estate, but in a sector that will fundamentally reshape how we think about how health care services are delivered. That in turn will have an impact on the needs for real estate in a health care setting.Family medicine has evolved. When I was a child, the family doctor was a self employed professional. Their office had one name on the door, and behind the waiting room was a sliding glass window for the receptionist, who often also doubled as the doctor’s assistant. That model is completely obsolete and has been replaced by the family health team clinic which has several owners, numerous associates, nurses, a nurse practitioner, and even other services like a dietitian, a blood lab, an imaging lab. All of these things under one roof in the name of efficiency. Increasingly, these clinics are not owner operated, but instead are associated with a larger healthcare provider. But just like technology has disrupted retail and media, it’s now coming for healthcare.The first wave was simple telehealth—video calls with your doctor. This was multiplied out of necessity during the pandemic. That was a good start. It saved a trip for a quick follow-up or a prescription refill. But it is limited. The game changer is the technology that brings diagnostic equipment to the patient. Some health care systems have already adopted the technology. Somewhere between 60-80% of office visits can be handled by telehealth, augmented with the diagnostic equipment. The change is coming, and it is clear as day. Commercial real estate has taken a beating since the pandemic. Medical office has been one of the remaining segments of stability in the office market. I can’t tell you how quickly the technology will penetrate the market. I predict that within the next five years, today’s existing technology will achieve sufficient market penetration that we will see a significant reduction in medical office footprints. ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Jon Ostenson is based in Atlanta, Georgia where he specializes in brokering business. On today's show we are talking about businesses the break the franchising stereotype. Many are complementary to real estate investments. To connect with Jon and to learn more, visit https://franbridgeconsulting.com/--------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Chuck Cuda is focused on redevelopment of deeply distressed inner city retail projects in the Kansas City area. The focus is on value creation and removal of blight. This is a strategy that could be viable in most US cities. To connect with Chuck and to learn more, visit https://opescre.com/ or email him directly at cuda@opescre.com. Also check out his new book "The Ego Strength" available on Amazon. -----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today’s show we talking about the role a general contractor. On a large project there are a lot of moving parts. There can be several subcontractors working at the same time on different aspects of the project. You can have plumbers in one building, electricians in another, windows being installed in another, and exterior cladding being installed with telescoping lifts. At the same time you can have drywall, painting and finishing happening in other parts of the project. There is just a lot going on. A big part of the job of the general contractor is to monitor progress for the scope of work in each of these areas. They need to be monitoring the staffing that the subcontractors are bringing to the project and setting clear expectations with the subcontractors on their level of staffing on the project. Some things do take time. Nine women can’t make a baby in a month. But you can improve the progress with nine times the number of drywallers, nine times the number of painters, and nine times the number of carpenters. Construction schedules are very compressible. ---------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today’s show we are going to take a look at the Federal Reserve’s announcement on Wednesday of this week. There has been lots covered about this on virtually every news channel.  What I'm covering hopefully is different from what you might be hearing. All eyes were on the Federal Reserve today. But the Bank of Canada also cut their key lending rate by 0.25% today bringing the Canadian central bank’s rate down to 2.5%. Most Canadian banks followed the rate announcement with a cut to their prime lending rate of 0.25% down to 4.7%. This is the rate that Canadian banks charge to their customers. In the summer of last year, banks were charging 6.7% for loans. Today, that’s 4.7%. This makes a difference. While the news is welcome, This rate cut is a reflection of economic weakness in Canada which has been impacted by the trade war with the US. Canada’s unemployment rate is high at 7.1%.While the US unemployment rate is officially 4.3%, we have to remember that the BLS has tinkered with the definition of unemployed over the years. They still do report the numbers as they did in the 1970’s and 1980’s. This is the U6 metric which if it were compared to the unemployment rate back then, would be at 8.3% in the US.-------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Today is another AMA episode (Ask Me Anything). Our question comes from Greg who writes:After listening to your recent segment on oil production data, it does not seem any data from the US government is accurate. We’ve known for a long time the jobs data is flawed. It would seem there are much better ways of collecting data. Is this simple incompetence or are there anterior motives for publishing bad data; additionally, is the data from other developed nations this bad? Thank you for your insight. Love the show.--------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today’s show we are looking to connect the dots between new home construction, demand for lumber, and home sales. We are answering the question, Is this a possible boom for new rental properties? So here we are going into the fourth quarter with several headwinds and a couple of tailwinds. If you are looking to start a construction project, this might be an excellent time. Construction labor are looking for work in many markets and will price their labor more aggressively. Labor has become the dominant cost in many projects. Material prices are falling in some segments. Lumber is a great example. We have falling interest rates. I say this irrespective of what the Federal Reserve may announce on Wednesday this week. The US 10 year Treasury is hovering around 4% and the Canadian 5 year commercial mortgage bond rate fell below 3%. It’s now around 2.92%. All of this happened with no central bank announcements. So if your capital costs are falling and your material prices are falling, and you are going into a seasonal slower time period with lower demand for labor, these are significant tailwinds. The only headwinds that I can see are the tariffs. The other headwinds are falling prices for single family homes. But if you’re building rental apartments, and your market has the right supply and demand dynamics for rentals, this might be one of the best times to build, starting in the 4th quarter and into the first quarter of next year. You might be thinking that you’re building a commercial building and you don’t use much lumber. What’s happening to steel prices ?OK, Let’s look at that. Steel prices seem to have mirrored the same dynamic as lumber, but to a smaller degree. Prices peaked at the end of July at $3333 per ton. On Sept 11, they were at $3006 per ton. Today they’ve rebounded a bit to $3070 per ton. We saw the same thing in copper. Prices were $5.80 per pound for copper and they fell in a matter of days to $4.36 per pound. Today the prices are hovering closer to what has been an average for the past year at $4.60 per pound. So this is not just a softwood lumber phenomenon. ---------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

We have seen some spectacular revisions in economic data over the past couple of years. We've seen it in labor data, gross domestic product, inflation. These revisions are continuing to come. This time it's in the oil markets. The narratives are failing to explain what's happening behind the scenes. On top of that, the numbers are just plain wrong. For example US growth in oil demand was underestimated by a factor of 4 by the IEA. Mexico's oil consumption has been under-reported by 100,000 barrels a day for the last five years. The US oil consumption was off by 350 million barrels in the last 3 years. These are not small inaccuracies. Yet futures prices are being determined by these narratives. ---------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Fahad Farhat is based in Toronto where he specializes in luxury short term rentals. This conversation breaks the mold on what you think of short term rentals. He manages more than $30M of properties in Florida, Vegas, Muskoka, Toronto and several other key locations. To connect with Fahad, visit ffrealtor on Instagram or visit his website at artofgreatness.co. ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Aleksey Chernobelskiy is based in Phoenix Arizona where he is the principal at GPLPMatch.com. He brings a vast experience managing multi-billion dollar portfolios. Today, his new venture is adding value by providing a matching service between accredited investors and investment offerings where only the offerings that match the investor's selection criteria are presented. This helps reduce the noise that is so pervasive in the investing community.To connect with Aleksey, visit GPLPMatch.com or email him directly at Aleksey@gplpmatch.com.-------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)