Asia Centric by Bloomberg Intelligence

Jayprakash Gupta, founder of Dhan, an innovative online brokerage in India, shares insights into the retail trading revolution in the country. He reveals that over 125 million investors have joined the market, with a significant rise in young, female, and rural participants. Gupta discusses how digitization and mobile access have driven this boom, while also emphasizing the new generation's penchant for quick gains in speculative trading. He highlights regulatory changes by SEBI aimed at curbing this frenzy, yet remains optimistic about India's growth potential.

In this engaging discussion, Jonathan Xiong, former co-CEO of Millennium in Asia and CEO & CIO of Arrowpoint Investment Partners, shares his bold move to launch a multi-strategy hedge fund focused on Asia. He explores the fierce competition from giants and the unique opportunity he identified in the market. Jonathan reveals the challenges of raising capital, the pressures of payroll management before funding, and the critical role of experienced anchor investors in navigating pitfalls. He also discusses the psychological demands faced by portfolio managers and his approach to managing Asia-specific volatility.

Timothy Moe, Chief Asia-Pacific equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, dives into the promising outlook for Asian markets. He highlights how geopolitical tensions are turning into investment opportunities, particularly in technology and manufacturing. Moe believes Asian equities, especially in Korea and India, will outperform the US and Europe through 2026. He predicts significant growth in sectors like semiconductors and shipbuilding, while also addressing the potential pitfalls in AI investments. His insights provide a compelling roadmap for smart investors.

SoftBank is doubling down on artificial intelligence with a $30 billion commitment to OpenAI and ambitious plans for Stargate – even as risks mount. After a 200% surge earlier this year, shares tumbled 40% in November when Google’s Gemini 3.0 gained traction, threatening ChatGPT’s dominant position in the AI race. Credit stress is rising, with CDS widening to nearly 300 basis points as funding concerns build. Investors and creditors are increasingly uneasy as OpenAI now accounts for about 20% of SoftBank’s net assets, turning what was once seen as a bold growth play into a potential source of concentrated risk. Bloomberg Intelligence equity analyst Kirk Boodry and credit analyst Sharon Chen join John Lee on the Asia Centric podcast. Together they unpack SoftBank’s AI ambitions, its reliance on margin loans and the implications of circular financing. They also weigh up Masayoshi Son’s track record – spectacular wins such as Alibaba and painful failures like WeWork – against his latest AI gamble.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Joining the discussion are Marvin Chen, Senior Equity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, Stephen Chiu, Chief Asia FX Strategist, and Timothy Tan, Senior Credit Strategist. They analyze how Asian equities might outpace the S&P 500 in 2026, with Marvin highlighting opportunities in Korea, Taiwan, and India. Stephen discusses the evolving dynamics of Asian currencies like the RMB, while Timothy dives into potential credit risks and liquidity issues, warning of funding stress that could trigger capital repatriation back to Asia. The future looks intriguing!

Larry Tabb, a market structure expert at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Sharnie Wong, a senior analyst covering Asian equity markets, dive into the striking contrast in global IPO trends. They discuss why Hong Kong is flourishing with a pipeline of over 300 IPOs while others falter. The duo highlights regulatory factors, motivations for going public, and the rising interest of Chinese firms shifting from the US to Hong Kong. They also explore the broader economic implications of dwindling IPOs and potential policy solutions to revive markets.

Taro Kimura, Japan's senior economist at Bloomberg Economics and former Bank of Japan staffer, shares insightful analysis on Japan's current economic landscape. He discusses the resurgence of inflation at nearly 3%, driven by food prices and the 2022 oil shock. Kimura explains how Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's pro-growth policies might complicate the Bank of Japan's ability to manage inflation. He also touches on Takaichi’s controversial remarks about Taiwan and their geopolitical implications, all while examining the challenges and opportunities within Japan's fiscal strategy.

Peter Kim, a managing director and investment strategist at KB Securities, shares his insights on South Korea’s booming Kospi Index, which surged 70% this year, notably powered by AI-linked tech giants like Samsung. He discusses President Lee Jae Myung's pro-market reforms and their impact on investor sentiment, including major tax cuts. Kim also examines the overheating property market and the geopolitical balancing act with China and the US, suggesting that Korea can harness both powers while navigating these complexities.

In this intriguing discussion, Robert Lea, a senior tech analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence focused on China's AI landscape, reveals how China's low-cost, open-source approach sets it apart from the US's expensive AI infrastructure spending. He emphasizes that while US firms plan to invest heavily, China's broader economy may reap more benefits from its AI rollout. Lea explores the contrasting paths of both nations, touches on the challenges of achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI), and questions profitability timelines for Chinese tech firms.

Giovanni Serio, a 20-year veteran of commodity trading and former head of research at Vitol, dives into the secretive world of trading houses like Vitol and Trafigura. He sheds light on how these firms operate, driven by flexibility and scale. Giovanni highlights the critical role of technology and data analytics in transforming market transparency and discusses how geopolitical events have reshaped trading dynamics. He also explores why oil prices are increasingly influenced by supply rather than demand and the evolving culture within the commodity trading sector.