The Higher Standard

Growth in the U.S. slowed considerably during the first three months of the year as interest rate increases and inflation took hold of an economy largely expected to decelerate even further ahead. According to the Commerce Department, gross domestic product (GDP) rose at a 1.1% annualized pace in the first quarter. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting growth of 2%.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss a report stating that U.S. home prices, as measured by the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, rose 0.15% between January and February. This month-over-month national home price uptick comes after national prices had declined every month between June 2022 and January 2023.Chris and Saied look at news showing the continued decline of First Republic Bank's stock, an ongoing rout that has erased 60% of its value just this week on concerns about the bank's financial health in the wake of two other bank collapses.They also offer some thoughts on the apparent end of the severe contraction in the US housing market over the past year, a bottoming-out which is raising hopes on Wall Street that America could avoid a recession altogether.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:The definition of gross domestic product (GDP).Why businesses have been drawing down inventory and cutting equipment purchases.Why home values don’t just drop across the country at the same time.Why historically, housing has been a critical driver of the broader business cycle.And so much more...Resources:"GDP Report Shows Economic Growth Slowed in First Quarter" (The Wall Street Journal)"Bankers’ pitch to save First Republic: Help us now, or pay more later when it fails" (CNBC)"Housing market correction is running on fumes as Case-Shiller reports the first U.S. home price uptick since June—these 2 charts tell the story" (Fortune)"The housing market's bottoming-out raises hopes that the US can avoid a recession" (Bloomberg Business)"First Republic Bank Is a Problem With No Easy Solution" (The Wall Street Journal)"Google Ad Revenue Drops for Second Straight Quarter" (The Wall Street Journal)

Many critics have blasted new rules from the Biden administration that will force good-credit homebuyers to subsidize the costs of buyers with poor credit. One former Obama housing official is calling out the "unprecedented" move, arguing this is "not the way" to bring in more home buyers. New rules from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) will allow consumers with lower credit ratings and less money for a down payment to qualify for better mortgage rates than they otherwise would have. In turn, the costs are expected to be passed on the those with good credit. The rules are set to go into effect May 1.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss comments from tech investor Chamath Palihapitiya, who said two years ago that bitcoin had replaced gold and predicted the digital currency would climb to $200,000, who is now saying that "Crypto is dead in America," blaming its demise largely on regulators, who have gotten much more aggressive in their pursuit of bad actors in the industry.Chris and Saied look at reports that Bed Bath and Beyond has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection after it failed in several last-ditch efforts to raise enough money to keep the company alive. It had been warning of a potential bankruptcy since early January, when it issued a “going concern” notice that it may not have the cash to cover expenses after a dismal holiday season.They also offer some thoughts on real estate magnate Sam Zell's assertion that "Remote work is a bunch of bullshit," speaking at a luncheon at NYU’s Schack Institute of Real Estate as part of its annual REIT Symposium.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:What is Moody's and why do its ratings matter?Why working from home is here to stay, but it's not for everyone.Why Google CEO’s compensation package includes $6 million for personal security.Why Coinbase's CEO Brian Armstrong says his company is preparing for a years-long court battle with the commission.And so much more...Resources:"Former Obama housing chief slams Biden’s ‘unprecedented’ mortgage plan: ‘Not the way to do it’" (Fox Business)"Frank's Charlie Javice moved millions from JPMorgan to Signature months before the bank collapsed" (Bloomberg Business)"More US consumers are falling behind on payments" (Yahoo! Finance)"Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet lead earnings rush: What to know this week" (Yahoo! Finance)"‘Crypto is dead in America,’ says longtime bitcoin bull Chamath Palihapitiya" (CNBC)"Meta has started its latest round of layoffs, focusing on technical employees" (CNBC)"Google’s 80-acre San Jose mega-campus is on hold as company reckons with economic slowdown" (CNBC)"BuzzFeed News Is Shutting Down, and Vice World News Could Be Next" (The Wall Street Journal)"Bed Bath & Beyond Files for Bankruptcy" (The Wall Street)"First Republic Lost $100 Billion in Deposits in Banking Panic" (The Wall Street Journal)"The Labor Market Might Be Bending; It Isn’t Breaking" (The Wall Street Journal)"Moody’s Downgrades 11 Regional Banks, Including Zions, U.S. Bank, Western Alliance" (The Wall Street Journal)"The Repo Man Returns as More Americans Fall Behind on Car Payments" (Bloomberg)"Remote work is ‘bull***t’ and the ‘office situation will change,’ says real estate billionaire Sam Zell: ‘People need to be together’" (Fortune)“US existing-home prices fall nearly 1% in March, the biggest drop in a decade” (MarketWatch)

The US economy stalled in recent weeks, with hiring and inflation slowing and access to credit narrowing, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts. "Overall economic activity was little changed in recent weeks," the Fed said in the report, published two weeks before each meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee. "Several districts noted that banks tightened lending standards amid increased uncertainty and concerns about liquidity. Overall price levels rose moderately during this reporting period, though the rate of price increases appeared to be slowing."In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss a recent survey from LendingTree Inc., indicating that US consumers are increasingly using installment loans to pay for everyday items like groceries, highlighting the financial pain wrought by the worst inflation outbreak in four decades.Chris and Saied look at Meta’s latest round of job cuts, as employees with technical backgrounds like user experience, software engineering, graphics programming are being let go.They also offer some thoughts on earnings season, demystifying some of the terminology and concepts that get tossed about so that you can better understand what earnings reports mean for you and the economy.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:How credit is being impacted by the stalling US economy.The Federal Reserve's Beige Book: What it is and why it matters.The rise of 'buy now, pay later' services, and the negative impact they're having on consumers.The continued rash of layoffs in the tech sector - and soon, the banking sector as well.And so much more...Resources:"US Economy Stalls as Credit Narrows, Fed’s Beige Book Says" (Bloomberg)"Americans Go Deeper Into Debt as They Use Buy Now, Pay Later Apps for Groceries" (Bloomberg)"More US consumers are falling behind on payments" (Yahoo! Finance)"Meta has started its latest round of layoffs, focusing on technical employees" (CNBC)

According to data from Redfin, the median U.S. asking rent fell 0.4% year over year to $1,937 in March. That’s the first U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said that banks are likely to become more cautious and may tighten lending further in the wake of recent bank failures, possibly negating the need for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. In a recent interview, Yellen said that policy actions to stem the systemic threat caused by last month's failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank had caused deposit outflows to stabilize, "and things have been calm."In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss the launch of Apple's 'Apple Card' savings account, with a 4.15% annual percentage yield. It requires no minimum deposit or balance, Apple said, and users can set up an account from the Wallet app on their iPhones.Chris and Saied look at a report from investment research firm Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI), indicating that investors have grown voracious for apartment-building acquisitions in 2021 and 2022, having purchased $355.5 billion and $299.2 billion worth of apartment buildings, unprecedented sums that far surpassed the previous $194 billion record of multifamily sales in 2019.They also offer some thoughts on news that the National Association of Home Builders / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index climbed to 45 in April, a 1-point gain, the highest since September. The index stood at 77 in April 2022.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why the Fed believes that unemployment is an inflationary trend.Why Chris believes inflation may be moderating.The degree of liability on the line for banking executives in the wake of the current crisis.Why difficulty getting loans and a lack of inventory has created a stalemate in the housing market.And so much more...Resources:"Yellen says US banks may tighten lending and negate need for more rate hikes" (Reuters)"Fed should let the economy equilibrate, says former Fed nominee Judy Shelton" (CNBC)"Warren Buffett Doesn't Hold Back When Asked About Failed Bank Execs" (TheStreet)"Credit-card balances have hit historic highs. Here’s why that’s a worrying sign." (Market Watch)"NO ATMs, no fees, and a 103-year old vault: Inside America's Smallest Bank" (Businessweek via Instagram)"Apple launches its savings account with 4.15% interest rate" (CNBC)"Rental Market Tracker: U.S. Rents Post First Annual Decline in Three Years" (Redfin)"Landlords pumped billions into apartment buildings during the pandemic. That bet could now go horribly wrong." (Yahoo! Finance)"Apple launches its savings account with 4.15% interest rate" (CNBC)"Charlie Javice, the founder accused of fraud by JPMorgan, is arrested as DOJ files criminal charges" (Fortune)"Bosses Pay Workers to Move Closer to Offices" (The Wall Street Journal)"Homebuilder sentiment rises in April, as builders grab near-record share of the market" (CNBC)"$134.1M! Wells Fargo CEO's retirement payout even bigger than thought" (USA Today)

Released Federal Reserve documents seem to indicate that fallout from the U.S. banking crisis is likely to tilt the economy into recession later this year. Minutes from the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) included a presentation from staff members on potential repercussions from the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and other tumult in the financial sector that began in early March.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss a report from the Labor Department indicating that US producer prices unexpectedly fell in March as the cost of gasoline declined, along with signs that underlying producer inflation was subsiding.Chris and Saied look at analyst's estimates, suggesting that deposits at JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Bank of America will tumble $521 billion from a year earlier, the biggest drop in a decade.They also offer some thoughts on criminal fraud charges brought by the Department of Justice against Charlie Javice, founder and former CEO of Frank, a startup college financial planning company for students, in which they allege that she "engaged in a brazen scheme" when she sold her company to JPMorgan Chase in 2021.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:The statistics that can be found behind the CPI report.The two main problems with the shelter component of the CPI report.Why the Fed expects a banking crisis to cause a recession this year.The ins and outs of the Charlie Javice fraud case.And so much more...Resources:"US consumer prices rise moderately; underlying inflation too hot" (Reuters)"US labor market gradually losing steam; producer inflation cooling" (Reuters)"U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fall in March" (Reuters)"Fed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show" (CNBC)"Top US banks to reveal $521 billion deposit drop, the most in a decade” (Bloomberg Business)"Deposit Crisis Sets Up a Tough First Quarter for All but the Biggest Banks" (The Wall Street Journal)"Charlie Javice, the founder accused of fraud by JPMorgan, is arrested as DOJ files criminal charges" (Fortune)"The Fed’s efforts to fight housing inflation by hiking interest rates has backfired, Cramer says" (CNBC)"Inflation rises just 0.1% in March and 5% from a year ago as Fed rate hikes take hold" (CNBC)"Bank Volatility to Cut U.S. Economic Growth, IMF Says" (The Wall Street Journal)"Fed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show” (CNBC)"Fed Keeps May Interest-Rate Increase on Table Despite Expected Recession" (The Wall Street Journal)

According to the Labor Department, payrolls grew by 236,000 for the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate for 238,000 and below the upwardly revised 326,000 in February. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 3.5%, against expectations that it would hold at 3.6%, with the decrease coming as labor force participation increased to its highest level since before the Covid pandemic.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss Nouriel Roubini's continued calls for disaster, stating that neither the US central bank nor the federal government will have the maneuvering room needed to sufficiently stimulate the economy.Chris and Saied look at a survey by recruiter Robert Walters of 3,000 white collar workers who moved jobs during the pandemic, found that 71% wanted to return to their pre-pandemic employer.They also offer some thoughts on a report from Walmart indicating that it expects about 65% of its stores to be serviced by automation by the end of its fiscal year 2026, just days after revealing plans to lay off more than 2,000 people at facilities that fulfill online orders.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why job growth in March is not ideal when the Fed is taken into account.Why a strong jobs report hurts the services inflation, something that has not come down since the last CPI report.Why the Saudis and OPEC are moving away from the US dollar.Insight on community banks and their loan loss provisions.And so much more...Resources:"Bosses are training employees to be influencers - after long discouraging social media posts about work" (Forbes via Instagram)"Who is Nouriel Roubini, Wall Street's 'Dr. Doom' economist who has warned of catastrophe for 2 decades?" (Markets Insider)"Morgan Stanley analysts are forecasting something ‘worse than in the Great Financial Crisis’ for commercial real estate" (Yahoo! Finance)"Bank Failures. High Inflation. Rising Rates. Is the Resilient Jobs Market About to Crack?" (The Wall Street Journal)"Private payrolls rose by 145,000 in March, well below expectations, ADP says" (CNBC)"Job growth totals 236,000 in March, near expectations as hiring pace slows" (CNBC)"Bosses Want Hard Workers — So They’re Hiring Older People" (The Wall Street Journal)"Great Resignation becomes Great Regret as workers long for their pre-Covid jobs" (Yahoo! Finance)"Walmart aims for 65% of stores to be automation serviced by 2026" (Yahoo! Finance)"Here's how many U.S. workers ChatGPT says it could replace" (Yahoo! Finance)"The coming commercial real estate crash that may never happen" (CNBC)"Diddy still pays Sting ‘$5,000 a day’ for sampling his hit song ‘Every Breath You Take’ 26 years ago" (CNBC)"U.S. Debt to GDP Ratio 1989-2023" (Macrotrends)

One of the world’s most well-known economists believes the banking crisis is far from over, and that U.S. authorities are merely buying themselves some time by insisting the banking system is “sound.” Nouriel Roubini, chief executive of consulting firm Roubini Macro Associates, argued on Friday that the financial system will be unable to cope with the sheer scale of private and public debt that has already been amassed, spawning a “trilemma” that will soon trigger another phase of panic.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss the news that an inflation gauge that the Federal Reserve follows closely rose slightly less than anticipated in February, providing some hope that interest rate hikes are helping ease price increases.Chris and Saied look at comments from asset management giant BlackRock stating that investors are too confident the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year and could pay the price later.They also offer some thoughts on Jim Cramer's assertion that he’s still searching for the first sign of a recession, even though it’s all anyone seems to be talking about.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why Moody’s expects home prices to decline about 4% both in 2023 and in 2024.The impact of the Federal Reserve’s rate increases on banks.Why the Fed is on track to lose 100 billion by the end of the year.Why markets are betting that the Fed will start cutting rates by July.And so much more...Resources:"Key Fed inflation gauge rose 0.3% in February, less than expected" (article from CNBC)"Home prices suddenly jump after several months of declines" (article from CNBC)"Bank Stress, Softer Inflation Just Made Fed’s Life Easier" (article from The Wall Street Journal)"BlackRock warns that investors are making a mistake by betting on the Fed to cut rates" (article from CNBC)"‘Dr. Doom’ Nouriel Roubini warns economic ‘trilemma’ is making a financial crash inevitable" (article from Fortune)"A recession may be coming, but Jim Cramer says he’s not seeing the early signs yet" (article from CNBC)

$47 billion. That's the amount of market capitalization Charles Schwab has had wiped out in just one month. The stock fell 33% between Feb. 28 and March 31. At the end of February, Charles Schwab's shares were trading at around $77.92. A month later, the price fell to $52.38. This is Charles Schwab's worst month since the October 1987 stock market crash, known as Black Monday. That day, the Dow Jones index lost 508 points, a decline of 22.6% and the largest daily decline in a stock market index at the time. Only the drop by 76% of the Icelandic stock market in 2008 would exceed this record.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss Federal Reserve data, showing that depositors have removed another $126 billion from U.S. banks during the week ending March 22. The biggest 25 banks lost $90 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis. Smaller banks, which suffered massive withdrawals the previous week as regulators seized regional lenders Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, were able to stabilize their outflows.Chris and Saied look at a story from Forbes, indicating that more than 136,000 people lost their jobs in major layoffs at U.S. companies over the fiscal quarter ending this week, more than the prior two quarters combined, as tech and manufacturing layoffs, led by Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft, surged.They also offer some thoughts on new housing market data, showing that existing home sales dropped in 12 of the last 13 months and existing home prices peaked last June. The surge of home prices during the height of the pandemic and the jump in mortgage rates since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates last March dampened home demand.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why cash remains king in this economy.How consumers can guage buy or sell opportunities.Why McDonald’s is closing its U.S. corporate offices as it lays off hundreds of workers.Why there's been mostly silence from the National Bureau of Economic Research.And so much more...Resources:"Depositors yank another $126 billion from US banks" (article from Yahoo! Finance)"Charles Schwab Loses $47 Billion in Market Value in One Month" (article from TheStreet)"136,000 laid off in major US job cuts this quarter - more than prior two quarters combined” (Forbes via Instagram)"McDonald's temporarily shuts US offices, prepares layoff notices, Wall Street Journal reports" (article from Reuters)"US Housing Market in Trouble: Moody's Predicts Home Prices Will Fall in 2023 and 2024" (article from TheStreet)"Instagram sold 44,000,000 blue checks in one day at $15 a check" (DJ Key via Instagram)"McDonald’s closes corporate offices as it lays off hundreds of workers" (article from CNBC)

As the US banking crisis drags on, investors are starting to unearth risks within Charles Schwab that have been hiding in plain sight. Unrealized losses on the firm’s balance sheet, loaded with long-dated bonds, ballooned to more than $29 billion last year. At the same time, higher interest rates are encouraging customers to move their cash out of certain accounts that underpin Schwab’s business and bolster its bottom line.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss news that Credit Suisse, the collapsed Swiss bank taken over by UBS Group in a hastily arranged bailout, has provided a safe haven for wealthy American clients to hide assets from the IRS — even after it was caught and prosecuted for doing the same thing more than a decade ago, according two former Credit Suisse bankers who are working with the U.S. government as whistleblowers.Chris and Saied look at a report from the Labour Department, indicating that jobless claims for the week ended March 25 totaled 198,000, up 7,000 from the previous period and a bit higher than the 195,000 estimate.They also offer some thoughts on the recent news that Binance Holdings, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, are being sued by a US regulator for allegedly breaking trading and derivatives rules. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Binance shirked its obligations by not properly registering with it.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Where Silicon Valley Bank falls in line with the other banks across the country.How a company’s market capitalization is estimated.Why pending home sales were up 0.8% month over month in February.The concept of a mansion tax.And so much more...Resources:"First Citizens shares soar 50% after the bank buys a large chunk of failed Silicon Valley Bank" (article from CNBC)"Where Financial Risk Lies, in 12 Charts" (article from The Wall Street Journal)"Charles Schwab's $7 trillion empire built on low rates is showing cracks" (Bloomberg Businessweek via Instagram)"Minneapolis Fed chair Neel Kashkari says "fundamentally, the banking system is sound"" (CBS News)Debt on Blackstone buildings 47% more than portfolio's worth" (The RealDeal via Instagram)"Apple plans to launch Apple Pay later - allowing users to split purchases into four payments with no additional fees” (Complex via Instagram)Nick Gerli via Twitter“Jobless claims edge up to 198,000, higher than expected” (article from CNBC)"Binance crypto exchange and CEO "CZ" Zhao sued by US regulator" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)"Look: The Brutal Layoff Email Disney CEO Bob Iger Sent Employees Today" (article from TheStreet)StockMKTNewz - Evan via Twitter"Higher Rates Are Coming for U.S. Companies" (article from The Wall Street Journal)"Markets Are Wrong on US Rate-Cut Bets, BlackRock Says" (article from Yahoo! Finance)"A Tale of Two Housing Markets: Prices Fall in the West While the East Booms" (article from The Wall Street Journal)"Binance Sued by CFTC Over Evading U.S. Rules" (article from The Wall Street Journal)"Binance Sees $2 Billion in Outflows as Troubles Compound" (article from The Wall Street Journal)"US pending home sales rise for third straight month; loan demand increases" (article from Reuters)"Credit Suisse whistleblowers say Swiss bank has been helping wealthy Americans dodge U.S. taxes for years" (article from CNBC)"Thanks to regulators, SVB will be the most costly bank failure in history" (article from The Hill)

As a series of U.S. lenders were besieged by customers yanking out their money this month, banking giants such as JPMorgan Chase & Co, Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. warned employees: Do not make it worse. JPMorgan, the nation's largest bank, told all employees they "should never give the appearance of exploiting a situation of stress or uncertainty," in a March 13 memo. "We do not make disparaging comments regarding competitors."In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss data showing that customers have recently pulled nearly $100 billion in deposits, while Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and more than a dozen other officials convened a special closed meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council.Chris and Saied look at news that Deutsche Bank’s stock plunged Friday as the market hones in on the German firm as the next major bank at risk in the wake of long-time rival Credit Suisse’s collapse and similar events stateside. Frankfurt-listed shares of Deutsche Bank dropped 7.5%, now down more than 25% since March 8, when confidence in the international banking system began to crumble.They also offer some thoughts on data from Trepp, an analytics provider for the Structured Finance, CRE, and Banking markets, indicating that this year, roughly $270 billion in commercial mortgages held by banks are set to expire. This means that big owners of property face the prospect that beleaguered banks, especially smaller ones, could get more aggressive with lending arrangements, giving landlords even less room to breathe as they try to refinance a mountain of loans coming due.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Paul Volcker’s monetary policy career and Ben Bernanke’s role in AIG bailout.Jerome Powell's role in the current banking crisis.The two different types of lender in the commercial real estate space.Why JP Morgan and Bank of America have been telling staff not to poach clients from stressed competitors.And so much more...Resources:"Volcker Slayed Inflation. Bernanke Saved the Banks. Can Powell Do Both?" (article from Bloomberg)"Exclusive: JPMorgan, Citi, BofA tell staff not to poach clients from stressed banks" (article from Reuters)"Nearly $100 billion in deposits pulled from banks; officials call system ‘sound and resilient’" (article from CNBC)Custodia Bank via Twitter"Veteran of FDIC Takeover Tells What It’s Like to Run a Failed Bank" (article from The Wall Street Journal)"What’s Going On at Deutsche Bank?" (article from The Wall Street Journal)"Commercial real estate is in trouble. A banking crisis will make it worse." (article from Yahoo! Finance)"Elon Musk says Jerome Powell is so bad at his job that GPT-4 would be a better Fed chair: ‘This foolish rate hike will worsen depositor flight’" (article from Yahoo! Finance)