We Are Not Saved

The immigration debate has become exceptionally polarized. Obviously the election of Trump hasn't helped, but it was polarized long before that. As part of this polarization rational considerations of feasibility, and long-term goals, and even what standard to apply have all been lost in the yelling. This episode hopes to get back to a rational discussion of how many people can we really let in, and what sort of standard should we use?

Continuing the discussion of Fermi's Paradox I turn to an examination of Liu Cixin's Three Body Trilogy and his Dark Forest explanation of Fermi's Paradox, which assumes that any aliens will shoot you on sight if they become aware of your existence. In other words most aliens are malevolent. I argue that most likely the exact opposite is the case. That it is in fact hard to imagine how you could end up with an extraterrestrial civilization that isn't extremely benevolent.

Transcript: https://wearenotsaved.com/2017/02/04/fermis-paradox-and-the-movie-interstellar/ Returning to a discussion of Fermi's Paradox. I use (and abuse) the movie Interstellar to examine some explanations for the paradox. In particular how culture can act to give people an incorrect view of how probable or improbable certain things are.

https://wearenotsaved.com/2017/01/28/godzilla-trudges-back-and-forth/ I discuss the possibility of violence erupting in the wake of the recent election with four reasons why I think it might be more likely than in the past. In particular I found the strength of the reaction right from day one to be particularly alarming. Also I examine the common misperception that violence will be limited and easy, when in reality it's like Godzilla trudging back and forth through your town.

Transcript: https://wearenotsaved.com/2017/01/21/the-religion-of-progress/ The world and particularly the elites on the left have fallen pray to a new ideology. The idea that progress is locked in, that it will go on forever, and that in many cases that it is supernaturally driven. The human consciousness is evolving and that through that evolution we're waking up and realizing that certain things which seemed acceptable are not intolerable. This is a shallow and largely selfish way of thinking.

Transcript: https://wearenotsaved.com/2017/01/14/how-to-save-humanity/ There are three groups. First the Actively Religious who believe we will be saved by God. The Radical Humanists who believe we will be saved by technology. And the Disengaged Middle who aren't actively in either camp. For us to be saved by technology we have to get off the planet. This podcast explores how difficult that is.

Transcript: https://wearenotsaved.com/2017/01/07/predictions-spoiler-no-ai-or-immortality/ I offer a bunch of predictions. Not for 2017, but forever. I also talk about the difficulty of prediction in general and the issues that can arrive from being mostly right, but about inconsequential stuff, and only slightly wrong, but about the big stuff.

Transcript: https://wearenotsaved.com/2016/12/24/reframing-pinkers-the-better-angels-of-our-nature/ A review of Pinker's book The Better Angels of Our Nature. While enjoying the book, I feel that he did a lot of subtle things to lead you to believe that the trend of decreasing violence has been going on longer and is more durable than it actually is. In particular I think some of the things he mentions have not been going on long enough for us to truly asses their duration or impact.

Transcript: https://wearenotsaved.com/2016/12/17/the-ideas-of-nassim-nicholas-taleb/ In this podcast I discuss the writings of Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Beginning with his ideas on how people are Fooled by Randomness, moving on to his concept of Black Swans (extreme, unexpected events) and finally finishing with the idea of Antifragility, which I think is one of the concepts most lacking in the modern world.

Transcript: https://wearenotsaved.com/2016/12/10/infrastructure-trump-and-the-hoover-dam/ This week we look at the subject of infrastructure. We seem to spend a lot of money on it to little effect. Why is that? And is it indicative of a civilization in decline. The idea of catabolic collapse is brought up, which is the idea that your society can start to fall apart when the maintenance costs exceed a certain level. I know it sounds boring, but trust me, it's not.